New publication: Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Lei Xu*, Leif C. Stige*, Kung-Sik Chan, Jie Zhou, Jun Yang, Shaowei Sang, Ming Wang, Zhicong Yang, Ziqiang Yan, Tong Jiang, Liang Lu, Yujuan Yue, Xiaobo Liu, Hualiang Lin, Jianguo Xu, Qiyong Liu, and Nils Chr. Stenseth* in PNAS. Open access.

Abstract

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.


Published online before print 9 December 2016

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1618558114 
Publication webpage.

*Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, UiO. See the publication for full author information.

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    Published Dec. 12, 2016 12:46 PM - Last modified Dec. 12, 2016 1:31 PM