Lei Xu

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I study the spatial-temporal dynamics of epidemic diseases including plague (the third pandemics) and dengue (a new threat to human health which is more sensitive to climate change). I also work on the rodent population regulation, which is not only because the major host of plague is rodent but alos the interesting indirect and direct effects of climate change on rodent population dynamics in diverse ecosystems.

I am interesting in ecological theory and modelling, and I am also interesting in the history and culture.

Tags: Rodent population, Dengue, Plague, China


Tian H, Yan C, Xu L, Büntgen U, Stenseth NC, Zhang Z: Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017.


Tian H, Yu P, Cazelles B, Xu L, Tan H, Yang J, Huang S, Xu B, Cai J, Ma C, Wei J, Li S, Qu J, Laine M, Wang J, Tong S, Stenseth NC, Xu B: Interannual cycles of Hantaan virus outbreaks at the human–animal interface in Central China are controlled by temperature and rainfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017:201701777.


Xu L, Stige LC, Chan KS, Zhou J, Yang J, Sang S, Wang M, Yang Z, Yan Z, Jiang T et al: Climate variation drives dengue dynamics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017, 114(1):113-118.


Xu L, Schmid BV, Liu J, Si X, Stenseth NC, Zhang Z: The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change. Proc Biol Sci 2015, 282


Xu L, Stige LC, Kausrud KL, Ben Ari T, Wang S, Fang X, Schmid BV, Liu Q, Stenseth NC, Zhang Z: Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague. P R Soc B 2014, 281(1780):20133159.


Ben-Ari T, Neerinckx S, Agier L, Cazelles B, Xu L, Zhang Z, Fang X, Wang S, Liu Q, Stenseth NC: Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2012, 109(21):8196-8201.(1800).


Xu L, Liu Q, Stige LC, Ben Ari T, Fang X, Chan KS, Wang S, Stenseth NC, Zhang Z: Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2011, 108(25):10214-10219.

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  • Xu, Lei (2016). Plague and climate variation in Central Asia and China.

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Published May 26, 2011 9:59 PM - Last modified Nov. 15, 2017 3:58 PM

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