Late Lunch Talk: Mathematical Frameworks for Pandemic Preparedness

Abstract

For many human pathogens, the burden of disease depends on age and previous exposure. Understanding the intersection between human population demography and transmission dynamics is therefore critical. We have developed a general model for the demographic signatures of the transition from pandemic emergence to endemicity. We point to the transition in age-structure of the risk from virgin epidemic to endemic equilibrium, with the young at the highest rates of infection. With the framework we further evaluate the effectiveness of vaccine allocation strategies. We argue that prioritizing vaccination by age and social activity may advance societal health benefits. In particular, we offer new guidelines and a quantitative tool for considering prioritization of vaccination for Scandinavian countries with comparable demographies, public health infrastructure and relatively lower infection-fatality ratios.

Speaker

Ruiyun Li

Zoom

This talk will be available on Zoom. The zoom link will be shared through the CEES seminar mailing list. Contact Tore Wallem if you would like to be forwarded the invitation e-mail.