How will river floods change in a warmer climate?
By Irene Brox Nilsen from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).
Irene Brox Nilsen from NVE. Foto: UiO/Simen Kjellin
Abstract: The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) monitors river flow across Norway and runs an early-warning flood system. One important task at NVE is to inform local authorities about the risk of future floods. How does NVE calculate floods in a future climate, with no available observations? In this talk, I will give an overview of global and regional climate models, downscaling methods and hydrological models, before presenting how we arrive at projected future flood magnitudes and recommendations to be used in local planning.
Bio: Irene Brox Nilsen is a researcher at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate where she studies the effect of climate change on hydrological variables, such as floods, snow cover and zero-degree crossings. She has a PhD in hydrology from the University of Oslo (defended in 2017). Her PhD covered land-atmosphere interactions, particularly feedback mechanisms between changes in water stored on land (e.g. snow and soil moisture) and changes in the atmosphere (e.g. temperature).