Oslo joint seminar in atmospheric, ocean and climate science, Apr 21

Title: Towards kilometre-scale global modelling: challenges for cloud and precipitation

Speaker: Richard Forbes, ECMWF

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Speaker: Richard Forbes, ECMWF


With continuing advances in high-performance computing (hardware and software), the grid spacing of operational global weather forecasting models is set to decrease to a few kilometres within the coming years. Although kilometre-scale limited area models have been in widespread operational use for a while, this is new territory for global models where accuracy is required across all geographical regions and meteorological regimes, from storm-scales to the global-scale, from days to weeks, months or even years. As well as the technical challenges of performing such computationally large simulations and dealing with potentially huge volumes of data, there are challenges to further develop the global model physics and dynamics for high resolution, and the observation usage and data assimilation methodologies to provide the best initial conditions. Several initiatives including Destination Earth and the NextGEMS project are enabling a first step towards implementing and improving kilometre-scale global modelling for both short-range prediction and longer-term climate simulation. At the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the upgrade of the ensemble resolution to 9km in early 2023 is planned to be followed a few years later with a further step increase in resolution and it is imperative to gain the maximum benefit for the forecast skill from the resolution increases.
This presentation will provide an overview of the strategy for ECMWF global numerical weather prediction model development and explore some of the challenges of higher resolution, particularly relating to cloud and precipitation. This includes understanding the main regime-dependent systematic errors that may or may not be related to resolution, the parametrization changes required for higher resolutions and the deep-convective “grey zone”, and how we can best utilize the increasing amounts of data from passive and active satellite instruments to help constrain cloud and precipitation globally. With these new challenges, collaboration across the meteorological community will be more important than ever in progressing our collective desire for improved models for both weather and climate.

What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):

Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU. This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field. All seminars will be held on Thursdays (Noon -1pm).

Published Jan. 12, 2022 2:08 PM - Last modified Apr. 19, 2022 9:56 AM