On the alleged coherence between the global temperature and the sun's movement (27 May)

When I wrote "On the alleged coherence between the global temperature and the sun's movement" I had no idea that this paper would lead to intense discussions on one of the most read climate (-sceptic) blogs and introduced as "Death blow to Barycentrism" with both Scafetta, whom I critize, and myself participating in the discussion.

Neither had I expected it to reach fourth place among the most downloaded papers from the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.

The abstract of the paper is:
It has recently been claimed that there is significant coherence between the spectral peaks of the global temperature series over the last 160 years and those of the speed of the solar center of mass at periods of 10-10.5, 20-21, 30 and 60-62 years. Here it is shown that these claims are based on a comparison between spectral peaks in spectral estimates that assume that the global temperature data contains time-invariant spectral lines.

However, time-frequency analysis using both windowed periodograms and the maximum entropy method shows that this is not the case. An estimate of the magnitude squared coherence shows instead that under certain conditions only coherence at a period of  15-17 years can be found in the data. As this result builds on a low number of independent averages and also is unwarranted from any physical model it is doubtful whether it is significant.


MetOs seminar in meteorology and oceanography. 27. May. 2014, Aud 1, Geology Building.

Published May 23, 2014 10:14 PM - Last modified May 27, 2014 12:16 PM