Magne Jørgensen

• Mohagheghi, Parastoo & Jørgensen, Magne (2017). What Contributes to the Success of IT Projects? An Empirical Study of IT Projects in the Norwegian Public Sector. Journal of Software.  ISSN 1796-217X.  12(9), s 751- 758 . doi: 10.17706/jsw.12.9.751-758
• Jørgensen, Magne (2016). Better Selection of Software Providers through Trialsourcing. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  33(5), s 48- 53 . doi: 10.1109/MS.2015.24
• Jørgensen, Magne; Dybå, Tore; Liestøl, Knut & Sjøberg, Dag (2016). Incorrect results in software engineering experiments: How to improve research practices. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  116, s 133- 145 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2015.03.065 Fulltekst i vitenarkiv. Vis sammendrag

  Context The trustworthiness of research results is a growing concern in many empirical disciplines. Aim The goals of this paper are to assess how much the trustworthiness of results reported in software engineering experiments is affected by researcher and publication bias, given typical statistical power and significance levels, and to suggest improved research practices. Method First, we conducted a small-scale survey to document the presence of researcher and publication biases in software engineering experiments. Then, we built a model that estimates the proportion of correct results for different levels of researcher and publication bias. A review of 150 randomly selected software engineering experiments published in the period 2002–2013 was conducted to provide input to the model. Results The survey indicates that researcher and publication bias is quite common. This finding is supported by the observation that the actual proportion of statistically significant results reported in the reviewed papers was about twice as high as the one expected assuming no researcher and publication bias. Our models suggest a high proportion of incorrect results even with quite conservative assumptions. Conclusion Research practices must improve to increase the trustworthiness of software engineering experiments. A key to this improvement is to avoid conducting studies with unsatisfactory low statistical power.

• Jørgensen, Magne & Yamashita, Aiko (2016). Cultural Characteristics and Their Connection to Increased Risk of Software Project Failure. Journal of Software.  ISSN 1796-217X.  11(6), s 606- 614 . doi: 10.17706/jsw.11.6.606-614
• Løhre, Erik & Jørgensen, Magne (2016). Numerical anchors and their strong effects on software development effort estimates. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  116, s 49- 56 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2015.03.015
• Jørgensen, Magne (2015). The Effect of the Time Unit on Software Development Effort Estimates, In Dahal Keshav & Rameshwar Rijal (ed.),  9th International Conference on Software, Knowledge, Information Management and Applications (SKIMA) 2015.  IEEE.  ISBN 978-1-4673-6744-8.  Kapïttel.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Papatheocharous, Efi (2015). Believing is Seeing: Confirmation Bias Studies in Software Engineering, In Jose Silva Matos & José Carlos Alves (ed.),  41st Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and Advanced Applications (SEAA) 2015.  IEEE Press.  ISBN 978-1-4673-7585-6.  Kapittel.  s 92 - 95
• Jørgensen, Magne (2014). Failure factors of small software projects at a global outsourcing marketplace. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  92(1), s 157- 169 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2014.01.034
• Jørgensen, Magne (2014). What we do and don't know about software development effort estimation. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  31(2), s 37- 40 . doi: 10.1109/MS.2014.49
• Jørgensen, Magne (2013). Relative Estimation of Software Development Effort: It Matters With What and How You Compare. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  30(2), s 74- 79 . doi: 10.1109/MS.2012.70
• Jørgensen, Magne (2013). The influence of selection bias on effort overruns in software development projects. Information and Software Technology.  ISSN 0950-5849.  55(9), s 1640- 1650 . doi: 10.1016/j.infsof.2013.03.001
• Halkjelsvik, Torleif & Jørgensen, Magne (2012). From Origami to Software Development: A Review of Studies on Judgment-Based Predictions of Performance Time. Psychological bulletin.  ISSN 0033-2909.  138(2), s 238- 271 . doi: 10.1037/a0025996
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2012). Software Development Estimation Biases: The Role of Interdependence. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  38(3), s 677- 693 . doi: 10.1109/TSE.2011.40
• Jørgensen, Magne; Halkjelsvik, Torleif & Kitchenham, Barbara (2012). How does project size affect cost estimation error? Statistical artifacts and methodological challenges. International Journal of Project Management.  ISSN 0263-7863.  30(7), s 839- 849 . doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.01.007
• Jørgensen, Magne & Kitchenham, Barbara (2012). Interpretation problems related to the use of regression models to decide on economy of scale in software development. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  85(11), s 2494- 2503 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2012.05.068
• Jørgensen, Magne & Løhre, Erik (2012). First Impressions in Software Development Effort Estimation: Easy to Create and Difficult to Neutralize, In Teresa Baldassarre; Marcela Genreo; Emilia Mendes & Mario Piattini (ed.),  Evaluation & Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE 2012), 16th International Conference on.  IET Conference Publications.  ISBN 978-1-84919-541-6.  Artikkel.  s 216 - 222
• Tamrakar, Ritesh & Jørgensen, Magne (2012). Does the use of Fibonacci numbers in Planning Poker affect effort estimates?, In Emilia Mendes & Marcela Genero (ed.),  Proceedings, 16th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering.  IET Research Journals.  ISBN 978-1-84919-541-6.  Artikkel.  s 228 - 232
• Halkjelsvik, Torleif; Jørgensen, Magne & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2011). To Read Two Pages, I Need 5 Minutes, but Give Me 5 Minutes and I will Read Four: How to Change Productivity Estimates by Inverting the Question. Applied Cognitive Psychology.  ISSN 0888-4080.  25(2), s 314- 323 . doi: 10.1002/acp.1693
• Jørgensen, Magne (2011). Contrasting ideal and realistic conditions as a means to improve judgment-based software development effort estimation. Information and Software Technology.  ISSN 0950-5849.  53(12), s 1382- 1390 . doi: 10.1016/j.infsof.2011.07.001
• Jørgensen, Magne (2011). Overconfidence in the accuracy of own work effort predictions: The role of interval width, In Wibecke Brun; Gideon Keren; Geir Kirkebøen & Henry Montgomery (ed.),  Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making.  Universitetsforlaget.  ISBN 9788215018782.  Kapittel 3.  s 47 - 56
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2011). The Impact of Irrelevant and Misleading Information on Software Development Effort Estimates: A Randomized Controlled Field Experiment. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  37(5), s 695- 707 . doi: 10.1109/TSE.2010.78
• Halkjelsvik, Torleif; Jørgensen, Magne & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2010). To read two pages, I need 5 minutes, but give me 5 minutes and I will read four: how to change productivity estimates by inverting the question. Applied Cognitive Psychology.  ISSN 0888-4080. . doi: 10.1002/acp.1693
• Jørgensen, Magne (2010). Identification of more risks can lead to increased over-optimism of and over-confidence in software development effort estimates. Information and Software Technology.  ISSN 0950-5849.  52(5), s 506- 516 . doi: 10.1016/j.infsof.2009.12.002
• Jørgensen, Magne (2010). Selection of strategies in judgment-based effort estimation. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  83(6), s 1039- 1050 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2009.12.028
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2010). Software Development Effort Estimation: Demystifying and Improving Expert Estimation, In Aslak Tveito; Are Magnus Bruaset & Olav Lysne (ed.),  Simula Research Laboratory - by thinking constantly about it.  Springer.  ISBN 978-3-642-01155-9.  26.  s 381 - 404
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2010). The Impact of Irrelevant and Misleading Information on Software Development Effort Estimates: A Randomized Controlled Field Experiment. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Halkjelsvik, Torleif (2010). The effects of request formats on judgment-based effort estimation. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  83(1), s 29- 36 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2009.03.076
• Jørgensen, Magne (2009). How to Avoid Selecting Providers with Bids Based on Over-Optimistic Cost Estimates. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  26(3), s 79- 84
• Jørgensen, Magne (2009). McGuire-programmets stammebehandling: Hva er det? Virker det? Hva kan logopeder lære fra det?. Norsk tidsskrift for logopedi.  ISSN 0332-7256.  55(1), s 13- 18
• Jørgensen, Magne & Boehm, Barry (2009). Software Development Effort Estimation: Formal Models or Expert Judgment?. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  March/April, s 14- 19
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2009). A Preliminary Study of Sequence Effects in Judgment-based Software Development Work- Effort Estimation. IET Software.  ISSN 1751-8806.  3(5), s 435- 441
• Jørgensen, Magne & Gruschke, Tanja Milijana (2009). The Impact of Lessons-Learned Sessions on Effort Estimation and Uncertainty Assessments. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  35(3), s 368- 383 . doi: 10.1109/TSE.2009.2
• Gruschke, Tanja Milijana & Jørgensen, Magne (2008). The role of outcome feedback in improving the uncertainty assessment of software development effort estimates. ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology.  ISSN 1049-331X.  17 . doi: 10.1145/13487689.13487693
• Hannay, Jo Erskine & Jørgensen, Magne (2008). The Role of Artificial Design Elements in Software Engineering Experiments. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  34(2), s 242- 259
• Hannay, Jo Erskine & Jørgensen, Magne (2008). The Role of Deliberate Artificial Design Elements in Software Engineering Experiments. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  34(2), s 242- 259 . doi: 10.1109/TSE.2008.13
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2008). How to Avoid Impact from Irrelevant and Misleading Information When Estimating Software Development Effort. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  (May/June), s 78- 83 . doi: 10.1109/MS.2008.57
• Jørgensen, Magne; Jørgensen, Magne; Grimstad, Stein & Grimstad, Stein (2008). Judgment-updating among software professionals, In Nazmul A. N. M. Hossain & Y Ouzrout (ed.),  Proceedings of the International Conference on Software, Knowledge, Information Management and Applications.  University of Bradford, School of Informatics.  ISBN 9781851432516.  SKIMA.  s 62 - 67
• Grimstad, Stein & Jørgensen, Magne (2007). Inconsistency in Expert Judgment-based Estimates of Software Development Effort. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  80(11), s 1770- 1777
• Grimstad, Stein & Jørgensen, Magne (2007). Inconsistency of expert judgment-based estimates of software development effort. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  80, s 1770- 1777 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2007.03.001
• Jørgensen, Magne; Faugli, Bjørn & Gruschke, Tanja (2007). Characteristics of software engineers with optimistic prediction. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  80(9), s 1472- 1482 Vis sammendrag

  This paper examines the degree to which level of optimism in software engineers? predictions is related to optimism on previous predictions, general level of optimism (explanatory style, life orientation and self-assessed optimism), development skill, confidence in the accuracy of their own predictions, and ability to recall effort used on previous tasks. Results from four experiments suggest that more optimistic software engineers are characterized by more optimistic previous predictions, higher confidence in the accuracy of their own predictions, lower development skills, poorer ability or willingness to recall effort on previous tasks, and higher optimism scores. However, a substantial part of the variation in the level of optimism seems to be random.

• Jørgensen, Magne; Faugli, Bjørn & Gruschke, Tanja Milijana (2007). Characteristics of software engineers with optimistic predictions. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  80, s 1472- 1482 . doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2006.09.047
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2007). The Impact of Irrelevant Information on Estimates of Software Development Effort, In Doug Grant (ed.),  The Australian Software Engineering Conference.  IEEE.  ISBN 0-7695-2778-7.  kap.  s 359 - 368
• Sjøberg, Dag; Dybå, Tore & Jørgensen, Magne (2007). The Future of Empirical Methods in Software Engineering Research, In Lionel Briand & Alexander Wolf (ed.),  Future of Software Engineering.  IEEEE-CS.  ISBN 0-7695-2829-5.  chap. 8.  s 358 - 378
• Grimstad, Stein & Jørgensen, Magne (2006). A Framework for the Analysis of Software Cost, In Jose Maldonado & Clas Wohlin (ed.),  ISESE'2006 (Fifth ACM-IEEE International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering.  ACM Publications.  ISBN 1-59593-218-6.  Kapittel.  s 58 - 65
• Jørgensen, Magne & Faugli, Bjørn (2006). Prediction of overoptimistic predictions. Electronic Workshops in Computing (eWiC).  ISSN 1477-9358.  s 2- 10 Vis sammendrag

  Overoptimistic predictions are common in software engineering projects, e.g., the average software project cost overrun is about 30%. This paper examines the use of two popular general tests of optimism (the ASQ and the LOT-R test) to select software engineers that are less likely to provide overoptimistic predictions. A necessary, but not sufficient, condition for this use is that there is a strong relationship between optimism score, as measured by the ASQ and LOT-R tests, and predictions. We report from two experiments on this topic. The experiments suggest that the relation between optimism score as measured by ASQ or LOT-R and predictions is too weak to enable a use of these optimism measurement instruments to select more realistic estimators in software organizations. Our results also suggest that a person's general level of optimism and over-optimistic predictions of performance are, to a large extent, unrelated.

• Jørgensen, Magne & Sjøberg, Dag (2006). Expert Estimation of Software Development Work, In Nazim Madhavji; Juan Fernandez-Ramli & Dewayne Perry (ed.),  Software Evolution and Feedback: Theory and Practice.  IEEE Press.  ISBN 0-470-87180-6.  Chap. 25.  s 523 - 527
• Dybå, Tore; Kitchenham, B. & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Evidence-based Software Engineering for Practitioners. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  22(1), s 58- 65
• Grimstad, Stein; Jørgensen, Magne & Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan (2005). The Clients' Impact on Effort Estimation Accuracy in Software Development Projects. Proceedings of the IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS).  ISSN 1530-1435.
• Gruschke, Tanja Milijana & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Assessing Uncertainty of Software Development Effort Estimates:The Learning From Outcome Feedback, In Sandro Morasca (ed.),  11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS 2005).  IEEE.  ISBN 0-7695-2371-4.  Kapittel.  s 1 - 10
• Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Evidence-Based Guidelines for Assessment of Software Development Cost Uncertainty. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  31(11), s 942- 954
• Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Practical guidelines for better support of expert judgement-based software effort estimation. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  23(3), s 57- 63
• Jørgensen, Magne (2005). The "Magic Step" of Judgment-Based Software Effort Estimation, In B Kokinov (ed.),  International Conference on Cognitive Economics.  NBU Press.  ISBN 954-535-404-6.  Kapittel.  s 105 - 114
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2005). Over-optimism in Software Development Projects: ?The winner?s curse?, In Vicente Alarcon Aquino (ed.),  15th International Conference on Electronics, Communications and Computers (CONIELECOMP'05).  IEEE.  ISBN 07695-2283-1.  Kapittel.  s 280 - 285
• Jørgensen, Magne; Kitchenham, B. & Dybå, Tore (2005). Teaching Evidence-Based Software Engineering to University Students, In Sandro Morasca (ed.),  11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS 2005).  IEEE.  ISBN 0-7695-2371-4.  Kapittel.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Teigen, Karl Halvor (2005). Kan vi unngå at "så og si helt sikkert" bare betyr "60% sikkert"?. Prosjektledelse.  ISSN 1500-0516.  (2), s 29- 31
• Karahasanovic, Amela; Anda, Bente Cecilie D; Arisholm, Erik; Hove, SE; Jørgensen, Magne; Sjøberg, Dag & Welland, R. (2005). Collecting Feedback during Software Engineering Experiments. Empirical Software Engineering.  ISSN 1382-3256.  10(2), s 113- 147
• Mair, C.; Shepperd, Martin & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). An Analysis of Data Sets Used to Train and Validate Cost Prediction Systems. Software engineering notes.  ISSN 0163-5948.  30(4), s 1- 6
• Moløkken, Kjetil Johan & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Expert Estimation of Web-Development Projects: Are Software Professionals in Technical Roles More Optimistic Than Those in Non-Technical Roles?. Empirical Software Engineering.  ISSN 1382-3256.  10(1), s 7- 30
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). A Comparison of Software Project Overruns – Flexible vs. Sequential Development Models. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  31(9), s 754- 766
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan; Jørgensen, Magne; Sørgaard, Pål & Grimstad, Stein (2005). Management of Public Software Projects: Avoiding Overruns, In Andrew Burge (ed.),  Hawaiian International Conference on Business.  Hawaii International Conference on Business.  Kapittel.
• Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Practical guidelines for expert-judgement-based software effort estimation. IEEE Software.  ISSN 0740-7459.  22
• Jørgensen, Magne; Kitchenham, Barbara & Dybå, Tore (2005). Teaching Evedence-Based Software Engineering to University Students, In  Software Metrics, 2005. 11th IEEE interntional symposium.  IEEE conference proceedings.  s 11
• Teigen, Karl Halvor & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: On the credibility of credible intervals. Applied Cognitive Psychology.  ISSN 0888-4080.  19, s 455- 475 Vis sammendrag

  Estimated confidence intervals for general knowledge items are usually too narrow. We report five experiments showing that people have much less confidence in these intervals than dictated by the assigned level of confidence. For instance, 90% intervals can be associated with an estimated confidence of 50% or less (and still lower hit rates). Moreover, interval width appears to remain stable over a wide range of instructions (high and low numeric and verbal confidence levels). This leads to a high degree of overconfidence for 90% intervals, but less for 50% intervals or for free choice intervals (without an assigned degree of confidence). To increase interval width one may have to ask exclusion rather than inclusion questions, for instance by soliciting �improbable� upper and lower values (Experiment 4), or by asking separate �more than� and �less than� questions (Experiment 5). We conclude that interval width and degree of confidence have different determinants, and cannot be regarded as equivalent ways of expressing uncertainty.

• Jørgensen, Magne (2004). A Review of Studies on Expert Estimation of Software Development Effort. Journal of Systems and Software.  ISSN 0164-1212.  70(1-2), s 37- 60
• Jørgensen, Magne (2004). Increasing Realism in Effort Estimation Uncertainty Assessments: It Matters How You Ask. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  30(4), s 209- 217
• Jørgensen, Magne (2004). Regression Models of Software Development Effort Estimation Accuracy and Bias. Empirical Software Engineering.  ISSN 1382-3256.  9(4), s 297- 314
• Jørgensen, Magne (2004). Top-Down and Bottom-Up Expert Estimation of Software Development Effort. Information and Software Technology.  ISSN 0950-5849.  46(1), s 1- 16
• Jørgensen, Magne & Carelius, G. J. (2004). An Empirical Study of Software Project Bidding. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  30(12), s 953- 969
• Jørgensen, Magne & Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan (2004). Eliminating Over-Confidence in Software Development Effort Estimates, In F Bomarius & Iida Hajimu (ed.),  Product Focused Software Process Improvement(PROFES 2004).  Springer.  ISBN 3-540-21421-6.  Kapittel.  s 174 - 184
• Jørgensen, Magne & Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan (2004). Reasons for Software Effort Estimation Error: Impact of Respondent Role, Information Collection Approach, and Data Analysis Method. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  30(12), s 993- 1007
• Jørgensen, Magne & Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan (2004). Reasons for Software Effort Estimation Error: Impact of Respondents Role, Information Collection Approach, and Data Analysis method. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.  ISSN 0098-5589.  30(12), s 993- 1007
• Jørgensen, Magne & Sjøberg, Dag (2004). Generalization and Theory-Building in Software Engineering Research, In Stephen Linkman (ed.),  Empirical Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE2004).  IEEE.  ISBN 0-7695-2163-0.  Kapittel.  s 29 - 36
• Jørgensen, Magne & Sjøberg, Dag (2004). The impact of customer expectation on software development effort estimates. International Journal of Project Management.  ISSN 0263-7863.  22(4), s 317- 325
• Kitchenham, B.; Dybå, Tore & Jørgensen, Magne (2004). Evidence-based Software Engineering, In Stephen Linkman (ed.),  Empirical Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE2004).  IEEE.  ISBN 0-7695-2163-0.  Kapittel.  s 273 - 281
• Moløkken, Kjetil Johan & Jørgensen, Magne (2004). Group Processes in Software Effort Estimation. Empirical Software Engineering.  ISSN 1382-3256.  9(4), s 315- 334
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan; Jørgensen, Magne; Tanilkan, SS; Gallis, Hans Enger; Lien, AC & Hove, Siw Elisabeth (2004). A Survey on Software Estimation in the Norwegian Industry. Proceedings of the IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS).  ISSN 1530-1435.  s 208- 219
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan; Lien, AC; Jørgensen, Magne; Tanilkan, SS; Gallis, Hans Enger & Hove, Siw Elisabeth (2004). Does Use of Development Model Affect Estimation Accuracy and Bias?, In F Bomarius & Iida Hajimu (ed.),  Product Focused Software Process Improvement(PROFES 2004).  Springer.  ISBN 3-540-21421-6.  Kapittel.  s 17 - 29

Se alle arbeider i Cristin

• Halkjelsvik, Torleif & Jørgensen, Magne (2018). Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life. Springer.  ISBN 978-3-319-74952-5.  122 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv.

Se alle arbeider i Cristin

• Filkukova, Petra & Jørgensen, Magne (2014). The effect of facial expression on evaluation of competence: Keep smiling!.
• Teigen, Karl Halvor; Jørgensen, Magne & Halberg, Anne-Marie (2006). The strange case of subjective uncertainty intervals.
• Grimstad, Stein & Jørgensen, Magne (2006). A Framework for the Analysis of Software Cost.
• Gruschke, Tanja Milijana & Jørgensen, Magne (2006). How much does feedback and performance review improve software development effort estimation? An Empirical Study.
• Gruschke, Tanja Milijana & Jørgensen, Magne (2006). To know or not to know: when does feedback lead to better assessment of uncertainty of own beliefs?.
• Jørgensen, Magne (2006). A Preliminary Model of Judgment-based Project Software Effort Predictions.
• Jørgensen, Magne (2006). Software Cost Estimation: When to Use Expert Judgment and When to Use Models.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Faugli, Bjørn (2006). Prediction of Optimistic Expert Judgment-Based Predictions.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Faugli, Bjørn (2006). Prediction of overoptimistic predictions. Vis sammendrag

  Overoptimistic predictions are common in software engineering projects, e.g., the average software project cost overrun is about 30%. This paper examines the use of two popular general tests of optimism (the ASQ and the LOT-R test) to select software engineers that are less likely to provide overoptimistic predictions. A necessary, but not sufficient, condition for this use is that there is a strong relationship between optimism score, as measured by the ASQ and LOT-R tests, and predictions. We report from two experiments on this topic. The experiments suggest that the relation between optimism score as measured by ASQ or LOT-R and predictions is too weak to enable a use of these optimism measurement instruments to select more realistic estimators in software organizations. Our results also suggest that a person's general level of optimism and over-optimistic predictions of performance are, to a large extent, unrelated.

• Grimstad, Stein; Jørgensen, Magne & Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan (2005). The Clients' Impact on Effort Estimation Accuracy in Software Development Projects.
• Gruschke, Tanja Milijana & Jørgensen, Magne (2005). Assessing Uncertainty of Software Development Effort Estimates:The Learning From Outcome Feedback.
• Jørgensen, Magne (2005). The "Magic Step" of Judgment-Based Software Effort Estimation.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Grimstad, Stein (2005). Over-optimism in Software Development Projects: ?The winner?s curse?.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Gruschke, Tanja Milijana (2005). Industrial Use of Formal Software Cost Estimation Models: Expert Estimation in Disguise.
• Jørgensen, Magne; Kitchenham, B. & Dybå, Tore (2005). Teaching Evidence-Based Software Engineering to University Students.
• Teigen, Karl Halvor; Jørgensen, Magne & Halberg, Anne-Marie (2005). On the psychology of uncertainty intervals.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan (2004). Eliminating Over-Confidence in Software Development Effort Estimates.
• Jørgensen, Magne & Sjøberg, Dag (2004). Generalization and Theory-Building in Software Engineering Research.
• Kitchenham, B.; Dybå, Tore & Jørgensen, Magne (2004). Evidence-based Software Engineering.
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan; Jørgensen, Magne & Sørgaard, Pål (2004). Offentlig Fare. ComputerWorld Norge.  ISSN 1501-6595.
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan; Jørgensen, Magne; Tanilkan, Sinan S.; Gallis, Hans Enger; Lien, Anette & Hove, Siw E. (2004). A Survey on Software Estimation in the Norwegian Industry.
• Moløkken-Østvold, Kjetil Johan; Jørgensen, Magne; Tanilkan, Sinan S.; Gallis, Hans Enger; Lien, Anette & Hove, Siw E. (2004). Project Estimation in the Norwegian Software Industry � A Summary.

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