Pernille Merethe Sire Seljom

• Pagnier, Celine Victoria; Bakker, Steffen Jaap Skotvoll & Seljom, Pernille (2025). Linking freight transport and energy system models for strategic investments decisions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. ISSN 1361-9209. 150. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2025.105114. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Decarbonizing the transport sector calls for investments that align freight transport with energy systems. Freight transport and energy system models are commonly employed to guide such decisions, yet they often operate in isolation, neglecting interdependencies between transport energy demand and the evolution of energy-related infrastructure. To address this gap, we establish a quantitative framework linking two models: IFE-TIMES-Norway, a linear programming-based energy system model, and STraM, a multi-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear program for freight transport infrastructure planning. STraM informs IFE-TIMES-Norway with modal and fuel splits, while IFE-TIMES-Norway enriches STraM with detailed insights into fuel costs and constraints on energy infrastructure investments. Applied to a Norwegian case study, the framework significantly alters model outputs, including energy mix in freight transport and the scale and location of infrastructure investments such as charging stations. A single iteration of information exchange, as often seen in the literature, proves insufficient for achieving stable results.

• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Peng, Yechennan & Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus (2025). Modelling household barriers to retrofits and solar energy - Quantifying the hidden cost in the Norwegian energy transition. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 127. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104260. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Long-term energy system models are widely used to support decision-making for policymakers and industry stakeholders. However, these models often assume households behave as techno-economic rational agents, which can lead to misleading insights for guiding the energy transition. This paper proposes a methodology on how household investment behaviour can be more accurately integrated into long-term energy system models, as well as analysing the value of overcoming barriers that prevents households from energy investments. The approach is demonstrated using a Norwegian energy system optimization model combined with data from a comprehensive survey of 2997 households. The analysis focuses on the adoption of retrofits and building-applied solar power towards 2050. The survey reveals that 85 % of the respondents face one or more barriers to implementing retrofits or PV. Results show that removing these barriers has significant monetary value for both the energy system and households, particularly in the case of retrofits. It is estimated that a socio-economic budget of up to 26 billion EURO could be allocated to overcome these barriers. Importantly, more than half of this budget would need to address non-financial barriers, highlighting the importance of broader policy measures beyond financial incentives.

• Schäffer, Linn Emelie; Jaehnert, Stefan; Chang, Miguel & Seljom, Pernille (2025). Robust Investment Strategies for the Norwegian Power System in the Energy Transition? 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM. IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers). ISSN 9798331512781. doi: 10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050181. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition requires fundamental changes in society and all parts of the energy system. Understanding these changes can be possible by consistent analyses with various specialized modelling tools. This paper concerns the bidirectional linking of energy and power system models for analyses of renewable energy systems reliant on reservoir hydropower. The energy system model IFE-TIMES-Norway is soft-linked with the hydro-thermal power market model FanSi to analyse the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. The power market model is used to evaluate the operational robustness of the investment strategies from the energy system model. We use socio-technical pathways as a basis to do techno-economic analyses at different levels of the energy system. The main aim is to understand and discuss the income potential of power generation and storage technologies, and the valuation of the operational flexibility of hydropower and other flexible resources in the two models.

• Mellaku, Meselu Tegenie; Wassie, Yibeltal Tebikew; Seljom, Pernille & Adaramola, Muyiwa S. (2025). Decentralized renewable energy technology alternatives to bridge manufacturing sector energy supply-demand gap in East Africa: A systematic review of potentials, challenges, and opportunities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. ISSN 1364-0321. 216. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115708. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The economy of East Africa (EA) is striving for a structural transformation with a strong focus on expanding the manufacturing sector. However, challenges related to modern and reliable energy supply have hindered the sector's growth performance across the region. This systematic review explores the potential, opportunities, and challenges to integrating decentralized renewable energy solutions to bridge the energy supply-demand gap in the EA's manufacturing sector. It also provides up-to-date insights into the extent of integration of decentralized renewable energy technologies in the EA manufacturing sector. Relevant data and information for the review were retrieved from 46 references, including databases and web-based sources. The findings highlight that the EA region possesses abundant untapped solar, wind, and bioenergy resources that can close the sector's energy supply-demand gap. The review also reveals that renewable energy solutions are becoming increasingly techno-economically competitive with conventional energy sources for hybrid and stand-alone applications in the manufacturing sector. However, several challenges impede the integration of decentralized renewable energy technologies in the sector, including a lack of enabling regulatory frameworks, limited financing options, limited access to renewable technologies, and a lack of skilled labor. Nonetheless, international initiatives aimed at supporting developing countries in combating climate change can help overcome the region's financial and technological constraints by facilitating technology transfer, capacity building, and offering affordable financing options. Furthermore, the ambition of East African nations to expand their manufacturing sectors presents a stimulating opportunity to accelerate the integration of decentralized renewable energy technologies into the sector.

• Haaskjold, Kristina & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Clean and Affordable Norwegian Offshore Wind to Facilitate the Low-Carbon Transition. In Labriet, Maryse; Espegren, Kari Aamodt; Giannakidis, George & Gallachóir, Brian Ó (Ed.), Aligning the Energy Transition with the Sustainable Development Goals: Key Insights from Energy System Modelling. Springer. ISSN 9783031588969. p. 145–167. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-58897-6_7. Full text in Research Archive
• Freeman, Rachel; Seljom, Pernille; Valkering, Pieter & Krook-Riekkola, Anna (2024). Low Energy Demand Scenarios for OECD Countries: Fairness, Feasibility and Potential Impacts on SDGs. In Labriet, Maryse; Espegren, Kari Aamodt; Giannakidis, George & Gallachóir, Brian Ó (Ed.), Aligning the Energy Transition with the Sustainable Development Goals: Key Insights from Energy System Modelling. Springer. ISSN 9783031588969. p. 17–40. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-58897-6_2. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva & Haaskjold, Kristina (2024). The effect and value of end-use flexibility in the low-carbon transition of the energy system. Energy. ISSN 0360-5442. 292. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130455. Full text in Research Archive

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• Venås, Jon Vegard & Seljom, Pernille (2026). Norwegian Energy System Modelling Workshop 2026 - Recap of the 2017 Workshop. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The presentation summarises the main outcomes of the Norwegian Energy System Modelling Workshop 2017, focusing on challenges and development needs in energy system modelling. Key topics include the modelling of flexibility, consumer behaviour, uncertainty and model scope, as well as the need for improved collaboration, data access, model coupling and the use of models in policymaking.

• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Norwegian energy system modelling activity: A survey on modelling biases, coupling, and integrating non-energy perspectives. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  A survey of Norwegian energy system modelling teams examined modelling practices, perceived biases, model linking, and the integration of non-energy perspectives. Most participating teams reported the use of long-term optimization models for capacity expansion, while fewer focus on operational dispatch or simulation. Respondents identified limited representation of flexibility, transmission constraints, and end-use technology investments as key model limitations. Model linking is motivated by the need for greater sectoral and technical detail but remains challenging due to difficulties in aligning assumptions and achieving convergence. Non-energy perspectives, particularly land use, stakeholder acceptance, and behavioural aspects, are increasingly considered, whereas material supply chains, life-cycle impacts, and macroeconomic perspectives remain underrepresented.

• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Norwegian Energy system Modelling Workshop 2026. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Chang, Miguel & Backe, Stian (2026). Kartene vi bruker til å planlegge energifremtiden vår, har blindsoner. Vi spurte dem som lager kartene hvor de er. – SINTEF-blogg. Full text in Research Archive
• Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Solbu, Gisle; Seljom, Pernille & Bjørndal, Mette (2026). Ulike veier mot et felles mål. En analyse av hvordan norske interesse-, klima-, og naturvernorganisasjoners prioriteringer kan forme det norske energisystemet fram til 2050. doi: https:/www.arendalsuka.no/program/natur-industri-eller-kraft-hva-ofrer-vi-forst. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Dynge, Marthe Fogstad; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2026). Ulike veier mot et felles mål. En analyse av hvordan norske interesse-, klima-, og naturvernorganisasjoners prioriteringer kan forme det norske energisystemet fram til 2050. doi: https:/www.ntnu.no/documents/1284688443/0/Rapport_NGO-analyse.pdf/d94ca4d5-af14-2fc7-5b05-c18e55d32776. Full text in Research Archive
• Minde, Adrian Woldseth; Seljom, Pernille & Solbu, Gisle (2026). Slik kan energisystemet bli hvis fem organisasjoner får mye større gjennomslag. [Internet]. Forskning.no. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  De fem er enige om målet: Norge skal kutte utslipp og produsere mer fornybar strøm. Men veien dit ser svært forskjellig ut, viser en ny studie.

• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Forskere har testet fem ulike energi­fremtider for Norge. [Internet]. Energi og Klima. doi: https:/www.energiogklima.no/nyhet/forskere-har-testet-fem-ulike-energifremtider-for-norge. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Forskere ved NTNU har brukt fem organisasjoners egne prioriteringer til å modellere fem ulike energifremtider for Norge i 2050. Resultatene viser store sprik i strømforbruk og kraftutbygging.

• Seljom, Pernille & Solbu, Gisle (2026). Samiske rettigheter kunne gitt mindre vindkraft. [Journal]. Ságat - Samisk avis AS. doi: https:/www.sagat.no/nyheter/samiske-rettigheter-kunne-gitt-mindre-vindkraft/19.58945. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Den energipolitiske spagaten: Elektrifisering, kraftbalanse og systemperspektiv. doi: https:/www.fni.no/no/arrangementer/nansens-klima-og-energiseminar-2026-1. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Rollen til energiforskning i en polarisert energidebatt. doi: https:/ife.no/event/tro-hap-kilowatt-tillit-til-energiforskningen-2/. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Chang, Miguel & Backe, Stian (2026). The maps we use to plan our energy future have blind spots. We asked the mapmakers where they are. – SINTEF Blog. Full text in Research Archive
• Steen, Markus; Hanson, Jens; Solbu, Gisle; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Klockar, Zack & Seljom, Pernille (2026). Vanskelige valg, felles retning: prioriteringer og kompromisser i regional energiomstilling. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Minde, Adrian Woldseth (2026). Fra forskning til handling​. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Norsk energiomstilling – Hva er status? Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Ordfører i Vardø sier reindrifta i Vardø støtter kjernekraft, men det var ikke riktig – NRK Troms og Finnmark. [Journal]. NRK Troms og Finmark. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Vardøs ordfører oppfattet at reindrifta var positive til kjernekraft, men det skulle vise seg å ikke stemme.

• Seljom, Pernille; Myhre, Stine Fleischer & Authen, Mari Lyseid (2026). Å belyse energivalg er ikke å plukke vinnere. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Svarinnlegg fra forskere ved IFE.

• Seljom, Pernille; Myhre, Stine Fleischer & Authen, Mari Lyseid (2026). Trenger Norge kjernekraft – eller bare en bedre kraftdebatt? Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Debatten om kjernekraft blir ofte for enkel. Våre analyser viser at teknologien neppe vil være på plass før utpå 2040-tallet, og at det er krevende å få det lønnsomt, skriver kronikkforfatterne.

• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Debatten - NRK TV. [TV]. NRK. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  9. april · Vil kjøre på med kjernekraftverk

• Seljom, Pernille (2026). Melkøya er et symptom på et større problem | DN. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Karbonfangst på Melkøya fremstilles som dyrere enn elektrifisering – for Equinor – men omfattende nettutbygging, mer kraft, naturinngrep og strømpriser må også med i analysene.

• Chang, Miguel & Seljom, Pernille (2026). Looking within and beyond energy system modelling - A survey on perceived model biases, model coupling, and integrating non-energy perspectives. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This conference presentation presents preliminary results from a recent and novel survey aimed at users and developers of energy system models (ESMs). The purpose of the survey is to map perceived biases related to model structure and to identify how these biases are typically addressed within different models. It also examines how practitioners view model linking and how non energy perspectives are incorporated into energy system analyses. The results help identify shared modelling challenges, increase transparency around modelling choices, and support better coordination and development across modelling teams. In the long run, the insights from the survey contribute to improving the quality and relevance of decision support provided by energy system models, and increasing understanding of how to better align models and the integration perspectives not typically within the scope of energy system analyses, such as biodiversity, critical material use, or lifecycle impacts. The survey, distributed to different teams in the international energy system modelling community shows which common parameters resulting from their models are typicalluy underestimate both the need for flexibility and the impact of transmission bottlenecks. • Common ways to reduce biases include adding more technical details, expanding sector coverage, increasing temporal resolution, and using qualitative assessments. • Motivations for model linking vary, but the most common are improving sector detail, technical detail, operational and market representation, and fulfilling project requirements. • More respondents were dissatisfied than satisfied with past model linking efforts. • Non energy perspectives already integrated in models include land use and biodiversity, social and stakeholder acceptance, and end use behavior

• Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille & Simensen, Trond (2026). Arealbehov fra ny kraftproduksjon mot 2050. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina & Seljom, Pernille (2026). Balancing renewable energy pathways with nature impacts. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille & Simensen, Trond (2026). Balancing renewable energy pathways with nature impacts. Full text in Research Archive
• Simensen, Trond; Hedger, Richard David; Haaskjold, Kristina & Seljom, Pernille (2026). Arealbehov til energiutbygging mot 2050. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille & Simensen, Trond (2026). Små fotavtrykk store kostnader? Avveininger i fremtidens kraftutbygging. Full text in Research Archive
• Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Seljom, Pernille (2025). The role of electrification in NTRANS scenarios. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Authen, Mari Lyseid (2025). Norsk Kjernekraft presenterer feil som fakta | Finansavisen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Håvard Kristiansen i Norsk Kjernekraft må gjerne ta kontakt for å få faktagrunnlaget tilsendt på nytt, så han slipper å bli tatt med faktafeil på trykk.

• Seljom, Pernille & Myhre, Stine Fleischer (2025). The role of nuclear power in Norways energy transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Hellemo, Lars; Silva, Thiago Lima; Peng, Yechennan; Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus; Seljom, Pernille & Rosenberg, Eva (2025). Striving for realism in analyses of building retrofit potential for the green energy system transition with agent-based modelling. doi: https:/vbn.aau.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/796346412/SESAAU2025_Book_of_Abstracts.pdf. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Analyses of the role of implementing energy efficiency measures for building mass upgrades in Norway suggest that there is a large extent of cost-efficient measures that can and should be implemented and would contribute to lowering the overall energy demand. Despite the available potential, upgrades are observed to be performed at considerably lower rates than cost-effective rates in practice. When including energy efficiency measures as investment decisions, results from energy systems models may thus be overly optimistic in suggesting that all cost-efficient measures will be implemented. We attempt to improve the realism of estimates of the realizable potential of building upgrades for Norwegian households based on existing behavioral research, where humans are not purely rational decision-makers, but rather act according to their values, motivations, barriers and mental shortcomings. The behavioral decision-making is modeled with an agent-based model (ABM) that incorporates both psychological factors of individual households as well as setting limits on how much agents can spend on upgrading the energy standard of their residence by different measures (insulation, changing windows/doors etc). In simulations, the households perform retrofits more gradually than cost-driven forecasts, consistent with survey results. The results from simulating different hypothetical policies to stimulate household retrofits suggest that households are sensitive to economic subsidies, and this can indeed increase the realized potential for energy efficiency in households. We combine the results from the ABM with IFE-TIMES-Norway to provide more realistic estimates of the savings achievable on a national scale through economic policies targeting Norwegian households.

• Solbu, Gisle; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2025). Hva krangler partiene mest om? Full text in Research Archive
• Solbu, Gisle; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2025). Politiske skillelinjer i norsk klima- og energipolitikk. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2025). Et grønt skifte begynner hjemme – men hvor er politikken? doi: https:/www.tu.no/artikler/et-gront-skifte-begynner-hjemme-men-hvor-er-politikken/558736. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norske husholdninger kan spare over halvparten av dagens strømbruk om vi oppgraderer gamle bygg og tar i bruk mer solkraft

• Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2025). Research perspectives on electrificationTechno-economic perspectives. Full text in Research Archive
• Minde, Adrian Woldseth; Seljom, Pernille & Solbu, Gisle (2025). Norge i 2050: Null utslipp – eller 20 millioner tonn? [Internet]. Forskning.no. doi: https:/www.forskning.no/klima-klimatiltak-ntnu/norge-i-2050-null-utslipp-eller-20-millioner-tonn/2544260. Full text in Research Archive
• Amundsen, Bård; Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2025). Forskere ser at kjernekraft er blitt et høyre-venstre-spørsmål i norsk politikk. [Internet]. Forskning.no. doi: https:/www.forskning.no/energi-klima/forskere-ser-at-kjernekraft-er-blitt-et-hoyre-venstre-sporsmal-i-norsk-politikk/2503369. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Throndsen, William; Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus & Hellemo, Lars (2025). Hovedfunn fra forskningsprosjekt om rollen til norske husholdninger i energiomstillingen ​. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2025). Uncertainty in energy system models. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2025). Folkemøte. Energi- og klimapolitikk: Nåsituasjon og fremtidige konsekvenser. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Heyse, Cornelius; Throndsen, William & Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2025). Mot lavere og mer fleksibelt energibruk i norske husholdninger: Utfordringer og løsninger. doi: https:/www.ntnu.no/documents/1284688443/0/Mot+lavere+og+mer+fleksibelt+energibruk+i+norske+husholdninger.pdf/cc4b713e-98b8-aae0-66f6-051a90b97dde?t=1745825972179. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norske husholdninger har et betydelig potensial til å få lavere energikostnader, bidra til å nå klimamålene og avlaste strømnettet uten å gi slipp på komforten. Denne policy briefen identifiserer utfordringer som hindrer realisering av dette potensialet og presenterer forskningsbaserte løsninger for å overvinne dem,

• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2025). Party politics and the energy transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2025). Smarte energivalg i hjemmet Klimaløsning eller ønsketekning? Full text in Research Archive
• Myhre, Stine Fleischer & Seljom, Pernille (2025). Nuclear modelling in IFE-TIMES-Norway and IFE-TIMES-Europe. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Espegren, Kari Aamodt; Olkkonen, Ville; Solbu, Gisle & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2025). Energi- og klimapolitikk: Nåsituasjon og fremtidige konsekvenser. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2025). Panel discussion: Why do energy systems modelling with TIMES? Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Espegren, Kari Aamodt; Olkkonen, Ville; Solbu, Gisle & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2025). Exploring Future Scenarios for Norway’s Energy System Through Party Politics. Full text in Research Archive
• Pagnier, Celine Victoria; Bakker, Steffen Jaap Skotvoll; Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire & Tomasgard, Asgeir (2025). Addressing long-term uncertainties in the Norwegian energy system: A cost-driven scenario generation approach. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2025). Er kjernekraft en del av Norges energiløsning? Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Value of energy storages in ancillary and energy markets in the Norwegian low-carbon energy transition towards 2050. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina & Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire (2024). The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus (2024). Glem energieffektivisering med dagens ordninger! Teknisk Ukeblad. ISSN 0040-2354. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2024). Hva vil partiene i energi- og klimapolitikken? Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe (2024). Ingen av stortingspartiene har løsningene på klimakrisen. Full text in Research Archive
• Solbu, Gisle; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2024). Hva lover partienes energi- og klimapolitikk? Partipolitiske skillelinjer. Full text in Research Archive
• Solbu, Gisle; Seljom, Pernille; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2024). Ny analyse: Ingen av stortingspartiene har løsningen på klimakrisen. Full text in Research Archive
• Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Solbu, Gisle; Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2024). Towards an understanding of the role of party politics in governing sustainability transitions. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina & Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire (2024). Modelling Ancillary Services Markets in the Norwegian energy system. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Myhre, Stine Fleischer; Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus; Peng, Yechennan & Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2024). Glem energieffektivisering med dagens ordninger! Full text in Research Archive
• Norge, Podcast Fornybar & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Fornybaren. #222: Seniorforsker ved IFE: - Ingen av partiene har svaret på klimakrisen. [Internet]. https://shows.acast.com/fornybaren/episodes/222-pernille-sel. Full text in Research Archive
• Pagnier, Celine Victoria; Bakker, Steffen Jaap Skotvoll & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Linking freight transport and energy system models for coherent strategic investments decisions. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Rosenberg, Eva (2024). Hva er våre energibehov mot 2050? Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2024). Electricity prices and the climate battel - Political parties energy and climate policy. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva & Chang, Miguel (2024). Energy system analysis - Perspectives on the energy transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2024). Forbrukerfleksibilitet i kraftsystemet. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire; Espegren, Kari Aamodt & Chang, Miguel (2024). Interaction between offshore wind and hydrogen. Full text in Research Archive
• Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Solbu, Gisle; Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2024). The politics of consumption: why so little action? Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Myhre, Stine Fleischer; Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus & Peng, Yechennan (2024). The role of household behaviour in the energy system transition. Combining survey data and energy system analysis. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Haaskjold, Kristina (2024). The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Solbu, Gisle; Seljom, Pernille & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2024). Politikk for forbruksreduksjon: hvorfor skjer det så lite? Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2024). The need and value of flexibility in the energy transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Granås, Stig (2024). Å oppgradere gamle bygg gir en enorm gevinst for energisystemet. [Journal]. EnergiAktuelt. Full text in Research Archive
• Acast, Elektroforeningen & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Podcast episode: Vil statsbudsjettet gi oss mer enøk raskere? [Radio]. https://open.spotify.com/episode/5IJMudWfDWjgLupWhhUI9w. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire & Rosenberg, Eva (2023). The role of building mass upgrade in the energy system transition - A Norwegian case study. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille (2023). Energy system modelling: The TIMES modelling framework. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Haaskjold, Kristina (2023). The role of Norwegian offshore wind in the energy system transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Myhre, Stine Fleischer & Seljom, Pernille (2023). Investigation of energy behaviour and behavioural change in the Norwegian energy system based on smart meter data. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Klöckner, Christian Andreas Nikolaus & Peng, Yechennan (2023). The role of end-users in the energy system transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva & Haaskjold, Kristina (2023). Winners and losers of end-use flexibility from an energy system perspective. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille & Rosenberg, Eva (2023). The role of building mass upgrade in the energy system transition - A Norwegian case study. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina; Rosenberg, Eva & Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire (2023). Effect and value of end-use flexibility in the low-carbon transition of the Norwegian energy system. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Haaskjold, Kristina; Freeman, Rachel; Glynn, James; Pieter, Valkering & Krook-Riekkola, Anna (2023). Main findings of ETSAP projects on Energy trade & Human behaviour in TIMES models. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire; Rosenberg, Eva & Haaskjold, Kristina (2023). Winners and loosers of end-use flexibility in the energy system transition. Full text in Research Archive
• Chang, Miguel; Seljom, Pernille; Sazon, Thor Alexis Salazar; Reigstad, Gunhild Allard; Backe, Stian & Straus, Julian (2026). Advancing Integrated Energy System Modelling: Research Gaps and Priorities. SINTEF Energi AS. ISSN 9788214087246. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Energy system models are increasingly used to support planning and decision-making in the energy transition, but growing system complexity challenges their ability to provide robust and policy-relevant insights. This report, developed within Research Area 1 of FME InterPlay, identifies key research gaps in modelling of integrated energy systems and outlines strategic directions to strengthen model-based decision support. Based on a survey of Norwegian modelling teams and a review of the scientific literature, the report highlights three main challenges. First, many models provide limited representation of end-use demand dynamics, constraining their ability to capture interactions between supply, demand, technology choices, and fuel switching. Second, while model coupling is widely used to increase detail and scope, insufficient alignment of assumptions and internal logic often leads to fragmented or inconsistent results. Third, non-energy perspectives, such as biodiversity, are weakly integrated, reducing the relevance of model results for real-world decisions that extend beyond least-cost solutions. In addition, modelling teams report persistent biases related to grid constraints and flexibility needs. Further structural uncertainty, uncertainty from the model design and analytical approach, is rarely addressed systematically. Rather than uniformly increasing model complexity, the report emphasises the importance of identifying which model details are essential for answering specific research and policy questions. Together, the findings define clear research priorities for FME InterPlay: strengthening demand representation, improving transparency and alignment in model coupling, integrating non-energy perspectives more directly, and enhancing model robustness under real-world operating conditions.

• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2025). Energi- og klimaomstilling under press – Stortingspartienes politikk og mulige konsekvenser fram mot 2025. NTNU Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. doi: https:/www.ntnu.no/documents/1284688443/0/Rapport_Politikkanalyse.pdf/90f60def-ded8-e68b-44be-18cb102c7f62?t=1754642665818. Full text in Research Archive
• Hovelstad, Guro; Martinsen, Thomas & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Energieffektivisering for bygg og fleksibilitet i det norske strømnettet : en analyse av hvordan energieffektiviseringstiltak for bygg virker inn på potensialet for lastforskyvning. Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet (NMBU). Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Several reports show increasing energy- and power demand in Norway in the future. Almost a quarter of the annual electricity consumption is used for building heating. At certain times however, the power demand for heating can account for up to a third of the national power requirement. The high demand for heating requires better solutions, including energy efficiency and peak-shaving. The aim of this master thesis is to study the correlation between flexibility (load shifting) and energy efficiency measures. Load shifting is calculated mathematically based on response time, recovery time, power- and energy reduction. Load shifting for building heating before and after the introduction of energy efficiency measures is compared. The energy efficiency potential is also calculated mathematically through a code I designed for IFE (summer 2023). Lastly, the load shifting potential is compared with the energy efficiency potential to find the effect of introducing various measures. The analysis is organized by using different scenarios, including measures done both on the building shell and the ventilation. Subsequently the two types of measures are compared in regard to energy efficiency and load shifting. The results show that the energy efficiency measures can save up to 78% of today's heating demand. Calculation of the load shifting shows that there is something wrong with the mathematical approach used in this thesis. The results show unrealistic numbers in regard to calculations of time periods and power reductions. However, differences before and after the introduction of measures are considered good enough to answer the research questions. As a conclusion, the energy efficiency measures will reduce the electricity-power in the system that can be turned off at the start of the response time. However, the electricity-power that can be reduced later in the response period will increase. Furthermore, the comparison shows that measures done on the building shell have the greatest potential for energy efficiency, while measures on the ventilation have the greatest potential for effect reduction. In other words, the measures that are best for energy efficiency are not best for load shifting (flexibility). Based on the discoveries in this master thesis I want to encourage politicians to also promote power-reducing measures and not only energy-efficient measures.

• Haaskjold, Kristina; Rosenberg, Eva; Seljom, Pernille; Chang, Miguel & Myhre, Stine Fleischer (2024). Documentation of IFE-TIMES-Norway v4. Institutt for energiteknikk. ISSN 9788270179527. Full text in Research Archive
• Kronshage, Stefan & Seljom, Pernille (2024). Country Report. Transition pathways for Norway. NDC ASPECTS. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Solbu, Gisle; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe & Espegren, Kari Aamodt (2024). Hva vil partiene i klimapolitikken? Partipolitiske skillelinjer og mulige konsekvenser av partipolitiske valg for energi- og klimaomstillingen. FME NTRANS. ISSN 9788293863311. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  DISKUSJONSPOENGER: • På en del områder er den norske politikken mindre polarisert enn man skulle tro. Dette bør motivere de som vil bygge tverrpolitiske allianser rundt klima- og energiomstilling. • Likevel: ideologiske forskjeller gjør seg gjeldende for eksempel når det gjelder staten og markedets rolle i å fremme omstilling, eller syn på EU-tilknytting. Dette gjør tverrpolitiske allianser mellom høyre- og venstresiden vanskelig. Samtidig er klimaomstilling et felt hvor «hesteskoteorien» gjør seg gjeldende med sammenfall mellom Rødt og FrP. • Den tydeligste omstillingspolitikken handler om teknologi. Dette er ikke overaskende, ettersom det her finnes kjente politiske virkemidler som subsidier, støtte til innovasjon og teknologiutvikling. Samtidig er de konkrete ambisjonene for å påvirke adferd, kultur, og en mer sosialt orientert omstilling beskjedne. Partier på både høyre og venstre fløy vegrer seg for å gripe inn i folks hverdag. Her mener vi det er et stort potensial for å tenke nytt rundt politikkens rolle i å påvirke det samfunnet den er en del av. • Til tross for at partiene har ulik politikk på mange områder, blir resultatet likevel relativt likt, for eksempel når det gjelder:- CO2-utslipp, kraftpris og teknologier for kraftproduksjon. Eksempelvis, blir det ikke investert i små kjernekraftreaktorer, selv om flere partier ønsker det. • Dette betyr at effekten av partienes politikk begrenses av strukturelle forhold som tilknytning til det europeiske kraftmarkedet. Samtidig speiler dette antakelsene i våre analyser. Slike antakelser kan selvsagt også endres på grunn av eksterne forhold, ved hjelp av politikk, eller ved at aktører investerer til tross for at kostnadene er større enn inntjeningen.

• Myhre, Stine Fleischer; Næss, Lina Ganter; Seljom, Pernille & Halden, Ugur (2024). Optimising Hydrogen Supply Chains for High-Speed Passenger Vessel Ports. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille; Krook-Riekkola, Anna; Valkering, Pieter & Glynn, James (2024). Final report on ETSAP WS series: Approaches to include energy trade in TIMES energy system modelling – practices, recommendations and further research needs. IEA-ETSAP. Full text in Research Archive
• Seljom, Pernille; Haaskjold, Kristina; Freeman, Rachel; Krook-Riekkola, Anna; Valkering, Pieter & Glynn, James (2024). Final report on ETSAP WS series: Approaches to include human and social dimensions in TIMES energy system models: Practices, recommendations and further research needs. IEA-ETSAP. Full text in Research Archive
• Gladkykh, Ganna; Thiene, Mara; Franceschinis, Cristiano; Paier, Manfred; Kort, Joke & Bartoszewicz-Burczy, Hanna [Show all 25 contributors for this article] (2023). Energy demand reduction as part of the clean energy transition in Europe : research and policy strategy. EERA - European Energy Research Alliance. ISSN 9782931174043. Full text in Research Archive
• Sartori, Igor; Pedrero, Raquel Alonso; Bagle, Marius Eide; Haaskjold, Kristina; Seljom, Pernille & Rosenberg, Eva [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2023). Flexbuild final report. The value of end-use flexibility in the future Norwegian energy system. SINTEF akademisk forlag. ISSN 9788253618135. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Flexbuild project aimed to understand how end-use flexibility could impact the future energy system in Norway. This initiative brought together industrial partners, public organizations, universities, and research institutions to investigate various aspects of energy flexibility. To achieve its objectives, the project employed a combination of models and explored four different energy transition scenarios, or storylines, named as Energy Nation, Petroleum Nation, Nature Nation, and Climate panic. The models developed and used in the project included BUILDopt for building energy use, IFE-TIMES-Norway for the Norwegian energy system, EMPIRE for the European power market, and EMPS for the Norwegian hydropower system. These models were interconnected through a soft linking approach, allowing them to influence each other's input and results, until some predefined convergency criteria are met. The project's input data and calibration involved regionally dividing the Norwegian building stock, defining potential for district heating expansion, and calibrating models against statistical data. Capacity Expansion of the European Power System EMPIRE is a long-term investment model designed to optimize technology portfolios within the European power system while considering factors like carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets, supply-demand balance, and technical constraints. The model represented thirty-one European countries connected through interconnectors, excluding Norway, which was divided into five market areas. EMPIRE was expanded to incorporate demand response from residential appliances, allowing it to consider residential electric load flexibility. This expansion indicated potential cost reductions of about 1% from 2020 to 2055. Activation of End-Use Flexibility in Buildings BUILDopt was developed to model end-use flexibility in buildings. It optimizes both operational and investment costs for a single building's energy system, considering factors like grid tariffs, spot prices, and flexible load profiles. The model incorporated flexibility sources such as indoor temperature control, thermal storage, and electric vehicle (EV) charging. BUILDopt's simulations revealed the potential for significant peak load reduction and cost savings through flexibility activation. The choice of grid tariff was a critical factor, with tariffs including a power fee component offering more cost-effective peak load reduction. The model also explored investment optimization in heating technologies, solar PV, and batteries. The results showed that activating existing flexibility sources could eliminate the need for investing in battery systems while it would accelerate the adoption of solar PV in buildings, particularly in houses. Energy System in Norway IFE-TIMES-Norway was linked with both EMPIRE and BUILDopt to understand interactions within the Norwegian and European power systems and the building sector, respectively. This linkage facilitates a holistic view of the energy transition. The results of this model emphasize the value of end-use flexibility in reducing energy transition costs. These flexibility options help align local energy production, especially from PV, with demand, reducing the need for grid expansion. They also increase profits from international electricity trade. End-use flexibility's impact on peak demand reduction varies by region and storyline. Importantly, it plays a role in lowering the need for hydrogen and thermal storage. Hydropower System in Norway The EMPS model focused on assessing how flexible end-use of electricity demand would affect Norway's hydropower-dominated power system. The study found that end-use flexibility had minimal effects on the power system, leading to slight reductions in energy demand and higher energy surplus in Norway. Power prices saw small decreases, especially in 2050, while hydropower production remained relatively stable, with minor changes in average power production and water reservoir usage. However, it also led to reduced income for both hydropower and wind power producers, particularly in 2030. The main objective of the project was to provide knowledge on how end-use flexibility available in the building stock will impact the development of the overall energy system. The main takeaways of Flexbuild are here summarized with respect to the project’s objectives. Objective 1: Develop a robust and novel stochastic modelling framework of the Norwegian energy system capable of evaluating the impacts of end-use flexibility in the energy system. The project created the BUILDopt model to assess end-use flexibility in buildings. It also expanded the IFE-TIMES-Norway model with stochastic elements to account for uncertainty in energy storage investments. Additionally, the project developed a methodology for linking these models. The results from the linking show that buildings remain fundamentally price-takers, and even if energy demand becomes flexible in the entire building stock, this has only a marginal impact on the energy price formation. Objective 2: Assess cost-optimal investment and operation of the energy system vs. private building owner and address possible mismatch between the two. End-use flexibility was seen as a techno-economic investment that improved the match between local PV production and demand, reducing the need for grid expansion. The cost-optimal choice for heating technologies often favoured heat pumps over district heating, highlighting a mismatch between individual building choices and the energy system perspective. Solar PV installation was found to be cost-optimal when combined with end-use flexibility, significantly reducing the need for batteries. Objective 3: Assess the impacts of different power tariffs on both end-user and the energy system. The type of power tariff had a significant impact. A tariff with a power fee component, in addition to an energy fee, enabled more cost-effective peak load management by setting caps on peak demand. Objective 4: Asses the value of end-use flexibility for easing the power grid reinforcement. End-use flexibility had the potential to reduce peak loads at the single building level by 20-50%, with smaller effects at the aggregate level, around 16-20% at market area level. The high level of solar PV installations raised questions about grid challenges in areas dominated by single-family houses. Objective 5: Investigate how end-use flexibility may change the role of Norwegian hydropower and investment in wind and solar in the national and European power system. End-use flexibility was shown to accelerate solar PV adoption in Norway, increasing total capacity and electricity production. While hydropower production remained relatively stable, there were slight reductions in power prices. Future work should include modelling distribution grids and ancillary markets, with an emphasis on stochastic demand profiles rather than archetype buildings for more robust representations. In summary, Flexbuild generated knowledge on end-use flexibility, its modelling and its potential impacts on the Norwegian energy system. It emphasized the importance of grid tariffs, the cost-effectiveness of end-use flexibility, and its role in promoting solar PV adoption while reducing the need for grid expansion.

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