Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares

• Vázquez Fernández, Liliana; Diz-Lois Palomares, Alfonso; Vicedo Cabrera, Ana M.; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Di Ruscio, Francesco & Wisløff, Torbjørn [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2024). Short-term association between air temperature and mortality in seven cities in Norway: A time series analysis. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. ISSN 1403-4948. doi: 10.1177/14034948241233359.
• Chan, Yat Hin; Rø, Gunnar; Midtbø, Jørgen E.; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Watle, Sara Sofie Viksmoen & Juvet, Lene Kristine [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2024). Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway. PLoS Computational Biology. ISSN 1553-734X. 20(1). doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011426.
• Stafoggia, Massimo; Michelozzi, Paola; Schneider, Alexandra; Armstrong, Ben; Scortichini, Matteo & Rai, Masna [Show all 63 contributors for this article] (2023). Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries. Environment International. ISSN 0160-4120. 181. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108258.
• Zhang, Siqi; Breitner, Susanne; Rai, Masna; Nikolaou, Nikolaos; Stafoggia, Massimo & de' Donato, Francesca [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2023). Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe. Environment International. ISSN 0160-4120. 179. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108154. Full text in Research Archive
• Engebretsen, Solveig; Palomares, Alfonso Diz-Lois; Rø, Gunnar Øyvind Isaksson; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer & Engø-Monsen, Kenth [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2023). A real-time regional model for COVID-19: Probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting. PLoS Computational Biology. ISSN 1553-734X. 19(1). doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010860. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging nations with devastating health and economic consequences. The spread of the disease has revealed major geographical heterogeneity because of regionally varying individual behaviour and mobility patterns, unequal meteorological conditions, diverse viral variants, and locally implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination roll-out. To support national and regional authorities in surveilling and controlling the pandemic in real-time as it unfolds, we here develop a new regional mathematical and statistical model. The model, which has been in use in Norway during the first two years of the pandemic, is informed by real-time mobility estimates from mobile phone data and laboratory-confirmed case and hospitalisation incidence. To estimate regional and time-varying transmissibility, case detection probabilities, and missed imported cases, we developed a novel sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation method allowing inference in useful time, despite the high parametric dimension. We test our approach on Norway and find that three-week-ahead predictions are precise and well-calibrated, enabling policy-relevant situational awareness at a local scale. By comparing the reproduction numbers before and after lockdowns, we identify spatially heterogeneous patterns in their effect on the transmissibility, with a stronger effect in the most populated regions compared to the national reduction estimated to be 85% (95% CI 78%-89%). Our approach is the first regional changepoint stochastic metapopulation model capable of real time spatially refined surveillance and forecasting during emergencies.

• Storvik, Geir Olve; Diz-Lois Palomares, Alfonso; Engebretsen, Solveig; Rø, Gunnar Øyvind Isaksson; Engø-Monsen, Kenth & Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2023). A sequential Monte Carlo approach to estimate a time-varying reproduction number in infectious disease models: the Covid-19 case. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). ISSN 0964-1998. 186(4), p. 616–632. doi: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad043. Full text in Research Archive
• Liu, Cong; Cai, Jing; Chen, Renjie; Sera, Francesco; Guo, Yuming & Tong, Shilu [Show all 45 contributors for this article] (2022). Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. ISSN 1073-449X. 206(8), p. 999–1007. doi: 10.1164/rccm.202111-2657OC.
• Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer; Engebretsen, Solveig; Kristoffersen, Anja Bråthen; Rø, Gunnar Øyvind Isaksson; Diz-Lois Palomares, Alfonso & Engø-Monsen, Kenth [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2021). Increased transmissibility of the alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant: evidence from contact tracing data in Oslo, January to February 2021. Infectious Diseases. ISSN 2374-4235. 54(1), p. 72–77. doi: 10.1080/23744235.2021.1977382. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background: Information about the contagiousness of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the alpha lineage, and how they spread in various locations is essential. Country-specific estimates are needed because local interventions influence transmissibility. Methods: We analysed contact tracing data from Oslo municipality, reported from January through February 2021, when the alpha lineage became predominant in Norway and estimated the relative transmissibility of the alpha lineage with the use of Poisson regression. Results: Within households, we found an increase in the secondary attack rate by 60% (95% CI 20–114%) among cases infected with the alpha lineage compared to other variants; including all close contacts, the relative increase in the secondary attack rate was 24% (95% CI −6%−43%). There was a significantly higher risk of infecting household members in index cases aged 40–59 years who were infected with the alpha lineage; we found no association between transmission and household size. Overall, including all close contacts, we found that the reproduction number among cases with the alpha lineage was increased by 24% (95% CI 0%−52%), corresponding to an absolute increase of 0.19, compared to the group of index cases infected with other variants. Conclusion: Our study suggests that households are the primary locations for rapid transmission of the new lineage alpha.

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• Storvik, Geir Olve & Diz-Lois Palomares, Alfonso (2023). Sequential Monte Carlo for infectious disease models - the Covid-19 case.

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