Research Interests
I am interested in different uncertainty treatments of energy systems and how well they are represented in energy systems models. The sheer complexity and web of relationships between different components renders this relevant topic interesting for many disciplines. Currently I am working on alternative approaches to traditional cost minimisations in order to increase robustness against perturbations, unforeseen changes, and to take political and societal challenges into account.
I have started my PhD in January 2021 under the supervision of Fred Espen Benth and Marianne Zeyringer. I am part of the SPATUS project, which is a collaboration between the Department of Mathematics (MI) and the Department of Technology Systems (ITS) at the University of Oslo. Within this TRG, I focus on a better representation of spatio-temporal uncertainties in energy system models. Here I particularly investigate the role of historical weather data and how that can be used for a more resilient energy transition.
I am part of the Risk and Stochastics section at MI and at ITS, I am part of the energy systems modelling group, who work on highRES that investigates a renewable European power system in 2050.
Tags:
Mathematics,
Energy,
Dynamical Systems,
Energy systems,
Uncertainty analyses
Publications
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Craig, Michael T.; Wohland, Jan; Stoop, Laurens P.; Kies, Alexander; Pickering, Bryn & Bloomfield, Hannah C.
[Show all 23 contributors for this article]
(2022).
Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling.
Joule.
ISSN 2542-4351.
6(7),
p. 1405–1417.
doi:
10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.010.
Show summary
Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. Here, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.
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Grochowicz, Aleksander; Heineken, Daniel & Wennberg, Sondre
(2021).
The reliability of wind power in the Longyearbyen area.
Universitetssenteret på Svalbard.
Full text in Research Archive
Show summary
This report in a white paper format was written as part of the course AGF-353/853 "Sustainable Arctic Energy Exploration and Development" at the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS).
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Within this decade the current energy system in Longyearbyen has to be revolutionised. Right now, it relies entirely on fossil fuels, but in the future it is envisioned to be a front-runner of renewable systems in the Arctic. Due to the polar night and restricted renewable resources, the reliability of wind power is of crucial importance in this transition. Additionally, the permafrost and remote location demand high robustness and simple maintenance. In this report, we analyse on-shore wind potential in three different locations over the previous decade, including an evaluation of stability and extreme events in Svalbard's harsh climate. To ensure long-term success of this transition, we look at interannual, seasonal, and sub-monthly variations that should be included in suitability assessments. Based on our analysis, disregarding this could lead to installations that can jeopardise the stability of the system. With generated input data that we feed into an energy systems model, we find that if one considers interannual variability and a set of different locations, one can ensure a viable and reliable renewable energy system for Longyearbyen, with on-shore wind as a key component.
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Published Jan. 4, 2021 2:07 PM
- Last modified May 19, 2022 1:25 PM
