Publikasjoner
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Fejzic, Emir; Usher, Will; Jensen, Ida Græsted; Zeyringer, Marianne; Vågerö, Oskar & Roithner, Maximilian
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(2026).
A structured ex-post synthesis of Nordic power sector pathways from independently developed scenarios.
Energy Strategy Reviews.
ISSN 2211-467X.
68.
doi:
10.1016/j.esr.2026.102375.
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Nordic energy planning draws on scenarios developed for different purposes, making it difficult to determine what their results support when considered together. A structured review of 63 studies relevant to comparing energy system models and scenarios identifies six study-design families and informs an ex-post synthesis of eight model-scenario cases from six model families. Ex-post synthesis documents recurring developments and contrasts, while attribution to particular assumptions requires a controlled comparison. The synthesis covers Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden in 2030, 2040 and 2050, retaining each case's identity and context. Between 2030 and 2050, onshore wind capacity increases by more than 0.1 GW in 20 of 21 eligible national trajectories, and solar PV capacity does so in 17. Modelled net onshore wind capacity additions by 2050 equal 11–654% of national total generating capacity in 2020. Total installed capacity varies approximately sevenfold in Finland, and technology portfolios differ substantially. In Norway, LUT-ESTM and OSeMBE report similar final electricity demand in 2050, at 218 and 220 TWh/yr, but 109 and 51 GW of onshore wind and 704 and 302 TWh/yr of power generation, respectively. Reported power-supply CO2 emissions are numerically lower in 2050 than in 2030 in all 20 eligible trajectories, but zero and negative endpoints reflect different scenario targets, sectoral boundaries and accounting conventions. The pathways are therefore most useful as contrasting planning cases rather than as a common forecast. Nordic grid, permitting and spatial-planning decisions should consequently be assessed across several wind-deployment scales, with explicit assumptions about electricity use.
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Hvidsten, Tobias Verheugen; Roithner, Maximilian; Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne
(2025).
Driving towards net-zero: the impact of electric vehicle flexibility participation on a future Norwegian electricity system.
Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability.
5(2).
doi:
10.1088/2634-4505/ade0e6.
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Electric vehicle (EV) batteries have a proven flexibility potential which could serve as an alternative to conventional electricity storage solutions. EV batteries could support the balancing of supply and demand, and the integration of variable renewable energy into the electricity system. The flexibility potential from EVs, in distinction to conventional battery storage, depends on the vehicle user’s willingness and opportunity to make their vehicle available for flexibility. This rate of participation is often not considered in modelling studies, despite the impact EV flexibility could have on the electricity system. This work presents a modelling study of the Norwegian electricity system using the high spatial and temporal resolution electricity system model (highRES). Two different charging strategies for EVs, flexible charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G), are optimised in conjunction with the design and dispatch of the electricity system. By varying the rate of participation in the charging strategies we demonstrate their benefits for a future net-zero electricity system. Our findings show EVs’ potential to eliminate the need for stationary battery storage with just 50% participation in V2G. In addition, we find that the EV flexibility contributes to reductions in the total system cost by almost 4% and 15% assuming 100% participation in flexible charging and V2G, respectively.
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Roithner, Maximilian; Velasco-Herrejón, Paola; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Vågerö, Oskar & Hvidsten, Tobias Verheugen
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(2025).
Balancing act: the cost of wind restrictions in Norway’s electricity transition.
Environmental Research: Energy.
2(3).
doi:
10.1088/2753-3751/adde62.
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To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce its dependency on energy imports, the pace, and scale of renewable energy deployment across Europe must increase dramatically over the next decade. Such a steep change in the net-zero transition will inevitably necessitate trade-offs with other societal priorities. Here we investigate a case study focused on the opposition towards onshore wind and the compromises that may need to be made to deliver its plans for deep electrification. Using an electricity system model, we explore the implications of key social and environmental dimensions shaping the future deployment of onshore wind on the costs and design of electricity systems for Norway in 2030. We find that under restrictions that allow for almost no additional onshore wind, demand cannot be met and load has to be shed. Yet, when reducing the restrictions on onshore wind or allowing for in-country transmission expansion, feasible system designs at a small fraction of that cost can be found. To meet the net-zero targets, compromises will need to be made on either wind power deployment, transmission expansion, non-electrification of industry or demand reduction.
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Publisert
19. aug. 2021 18:00
- Sist endret
19. aug. 2021 18:00