Sammendrag
The ocean wave climate is important to maritime safety and extreme weather continue to represent a risk to maritime operations. Various return values of sea state parameters such as the significant wave height are important factors taken into account in design of ships and offshore structures. Therefore, knowledge and understanding of the variability of significant wave height is of great importance. Furthermore, long-term trends in the wave climate due to climate change that may change the operating environment in the future may need to be considered in the design process. In order to describe the variability of significant wave height in space and time, and also to identify long-term trend in the wave climate, a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model has been developed for significant wave height. This model will be outlined in the presentation, and the results obtained from different model alternatives will be presented for an area in the North Atlantic Ocean. First, the main model will be described and the results will be presented. Then, results from running the model on log-transformed data will be presented. The model is then extended with a CO2 regression component, with future projections towards 2100. Finally, it will be demonstrated how the estimated trends may be included in structural response calculations of ships.