SOLENA – Solar effects on natural climate variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic

About the project

While there is strong evidence that global climate change is related to man-made increasing greenhouse gases, there remains uncertainties regarding the actual contribution of natural climate variability. The latter includes the role of solar variability, and the 11-year solar cycle in particular, which can have a stronger influence on regional rather than global mean temperatures. In particular, recent studies suggest that the winter circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could be strongly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle. The NAO is the dominating weather pattern over the Atlantic-European region and a better understanding of its governing mechanisms and predictability would be hugely important, not only for science, but also for the European economic and societal needs.

SOLENA used a new generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models, with a fully chemically interactive middle atmosphere. It brings together a multidisciplinary team to address the role of the Sun in climate variability on seasonal, decadal and centennial time scales, considering jointly radiance and particle fluxes variations within a common state-of-the-art modelling framework. A special focus is the atmosphere-ocean interactions. SOLENA will also examine climate variations associated with grand minima in solar radiative forcing. SOLENA hence aims at gaining novel insights about the role of the Sun in influencing climate variability that may ultimately lead to improved decadal climate predictions, with special relevance for Northern Europe, the North Atlantic and the Arctic but also for other teleconnections with the tropical and Pacific regions.

As an effort to include energetic particle effects in long-term climate simulations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) now recommends a solar forcing that is composed not only of radiative but also particle fluxes. To this end, an electron precipitation forcing dataset has been reconstructed, extending back in time using proxy data, for use in climate model simulations such as those carried out in this project.

Project leader

The project leader for SOLENA is Senior Researcher Yvan Orsolini, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU). Research Gate | Google Scholar

Financing

Name of the project is; Solar effects on natural climate variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic, in Norwegian: Solar effekter på naturlige klimavariasjoner i Nord-Atlanteren og Arktis. 

The project in funded in The Research Council of Norway, RCN's KLIMAFORSK-programme, with NFR-project number 255276.

The timeframe for the project is 2016 - 2022.

Publications

  • Guttu, Sigmund; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Stordal, Frode; Otterå, Odd Helge & Omrani, Nour-Eddine (2021). The 11 year solar cycle UV irradiance effect and its dependency on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326. 16(6). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfe8b. Full text in Research Archive
  • Guttu, Sigmund; Orsolini, Yvan; Stordal, Frode; Otterå, Odd Helge; Omrani, Nour-Eddine & Tartaglione, Nazario [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2021). Impacts of UV irradiance and medium-energy electron precipitation on the North Atlantic oscillation during the 11-year solar cycle. Atmosphere. ISSN 2073-4433. 12(8). doi: 10.3390/atmos12081029. Full text in Research Archive
  • Pérot, Kristell & Orsolini, Yvan J. (2021). Impact of the major SSWs of February 2018 and January 2019 on the middle atmospheric nitric oxide abundance. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. ISSN 1364-6826. 218. doi: 10.1016/j.jastp.2021.105586. Full text in Research Archive
  • Tartaglione, Nazario; Toniazzo, Thomas; Orsolini, Yvan & Otterå, Odd Helge (2020). A note on the statistical evidence for an influence of geomagnetic activity on Northern Hemisphere seasonal-mean stratospheric temperatures using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. Annales Geophysicae. ISSN 0992-7689. 38, p. 545–555. doi: 10.5194/angeo-38-545-2020. Full text in Research Archive
  • Tartaglione, N.; Toniazzo, T.; Orsolini, Y. & Otterå, O.H. (2020). Impact of solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity on polar NOx, ozone and temperature in WACCM simulations. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. ISSN 1364-6826. 209. doi: 10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105398. Full text in Research Archive

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  • Guttu, Sigmund; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Stordal, Frode; Otterå, Odd Helge & Omrani, Nour-Eddine (2021). The 11 year solar cycle UV irradiance effect and its dependency on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
  • Orsolini, Yvan J.; Guttu, Sigmund; Stordal, Frode; Otterå, Odd Helge; Omrani, Nour-Eddine & Tartaglione, Nazario [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2021). Impacts of UV Irradiance and Particle Precipitation on the North Atlantic Oscillation During the 11-year Solar Cycle.
  • Orsolini, Yvan J. & Pérot, Kristell (2021). Impact of the Major Ssws of February 2018 and January 2019 on the Middle Atmospheric Nitric Oxide Abundance.
  • Guttu, Sigmund; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Stordal, Frode; Limpasuvan, Varavut & Marsh, Daniel R. (2020). Impact of Medium-Energy Electron Precipitation on Ozone and Middle Atmosphere Dynamics in WACCM Simulations.
  • Orsolini, Yvan J. (2020). Solar Impact on Climate through Energetic Particle Precipitation.
  • Guttu, Sigmund & Orsolini, Yvan (2019). Impact of Medium-energy Electron Precipitation on Ozone and Middle Atmosphere Dynamics in WACCM simulations.
  • Guttu, Sigmund; Orsolini, Yvan; Stordal, Frode; Limpasuvan, Varavut & Marsh, D. (2019). Impact of medium-energy electron precipitation on ozone and middle atmosphere dynamics in WACCM simulations.
  • Orsolini, Yvan; Guttu, Sigmund; Stordal, Frode & Limpasuvan, Varavut (2019). Impact of Medium-energy Electron Precipitation on Ozone and Middle Atmosphere Dynamics in WACCM Simulations.
  • Pérot, K.; Orsolini, Yvan; Grieco, F. & Murtagh, D. (2019). Study of Energetic Particle Precipitation Effects, based on 15 Years of NO Observations by Odin/SMR.
  • Zhang, Jiarong; Limpasuvan, Var; Orsolini, Yvan; Espy, Patrick Joseph & Hibbins, Robert (2019). Semidiurnal Tidal Perturbations during SSW in SuperDARN and WACCM-X.
  • Orsolini, Yvan; Smith-Johnsen, Christine; Marsh, Dan & Stordal, Frode (2018). Chemical impacts of energetic particle precipitation in the middle atmosphere.
  • Orsolini, Yvan (2018). Chemical impacts of energetic particle precipitation in the polar mesosphere-lower thermosphere.
  • Tartaglione, Nazario; Orsolini, Yvan; Otterå, Odd Helge & Toniazzo, Thomas (2018). Impact of the solar and geomagnetic activity on atmospheric variables: A study with WACCM.
  • Orsolini, Yvan (2017). Modelling the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the middle atmosphere, and implications for climate.
  • Tartaglione, Nazario; Toniazzo, Thomas; Otterå, Odd Helge & Orsolini, Yvan (2017). Stratospheric ozone distribution and its influence on the atmospheric circulation.

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Published Oct. 24, 2017 11:58 AM - Last modified Mar. 25, 2022 2:38 PM