The first week-end of August, "Glommadyppen", an annual long-distance open-water swimming event, is organized. The participants swim a 11 km reach in the Glomma River, from Bingsfossen to Fetsund. Water temperature along the course is critical to the event's feasibility and safety. If temperature falls below 16°C, the event need to be relocated. This happened in 2018 and 2022. The primary challenge for the organizers is to predict potentially temperature drops sufficiently in advance to allow the event to be rescheduled or relocated without causing disproportionate disruption to participants and organizers.
The critical stretch of Glomma is located downstream the confluence where Vorma, originating from Gudbrandsdalen flows into Glomma originating from Østerdalen. Glomma has relatively stable water temperatures during the summer season whereas Vorma has substantial variations. The reason is upwelling of cold water from Lake Mjøsa following periods of southerly winds. The mechanism behind this upwelling is well understood, but quantitative forecasts of water temperatures is still a challenge.
The main objective of the thesis is to assess the predictability of temperature in Glomma.
The task can be solved using either statistical or machine learning models and/or hydraulic models depending on the interest of the student. The task will use existing data from NVE and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
Source: sildre.nve.no