Frequency of extremes in relation to long term variability in climate and hydrology
Europe has recently been hit by both extreme wet and dry conditions. In July 2021, a storm stalled over central Europe causing catastrophic flooding, with more than 200 casualties and large damages, notable in Belgium and Germany. In summer 2022, large parts of southern and central Europe experienced extremely hot and dry conditions with wide-ranging impacts - said to be the worst drought in Europe in 500 years.
A changing climate can imply changes both in long-term means as well as changes in the variability and the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrometeorological events, such as wet/dry spells and floods/droughts as the extreme events in Europe in 2021 and 2022 are indications of.
This master thesis will perform a multivariate statistical analysis of historical datasets of climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) and hydrological variables (discharge and groundwater levels) using a range of indicators.
The region of study can be Norway or selected regions in Europe (or beyond). It will further look at the occurrence of a combination of extreme episodes such as warm and wet periods or cold and dry, and whether any change in the occurrence of these can be detected.
The work will involve data analyses and statistical modeling.
Fig. 1 Hydrological extremes in Europe; left: River l'Eygues (France) during the European-wide drought in August 2003 (photo by H.A.J. van Lanen) and right: Flood damage in Pepinster, Belgium on 17 July 2021 following the devastating flood that hit central Europe this summer (source: Christophe Licoppe, European Commission). Click here for a bigger version.
