Marianne Zeyringer

• Javed, Muhammad Shahzad; Gilad, Dafna; May, Roelof Frans; Kvalnes, Thomas & Zeyringer, Marianne (2026). A spare-share scenario framework for exploring biodiversity - onshore wind trade-offs in electricity system planning. Journal of Cleaner Production. ISSN 0959-6526. 575. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.149157. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Expanding wind energy to meet net-zero targets increasingly conflicts with biodiversity and landscape conser vation, creating contested geographies where socio-ecological values compete. Existing spatial analyses identify ecologically preferable sites but lack representation of system constraints and trade-offs, while most energy system models optimize technology deployment under cost constraints by specifying regional capacity limits and rarely encode which specific sites become available under different ecological priorities. We address this disconnect through a spare-share scenario framework coupling high-resolution ecological (247 bird species, 5 bat species) and infrastructure datasets with electricity system optimization for Norway's 2050 net-zero pathway. Spatial allocation strategies spanning infrastructure-proximate concentration (spare) to ecologically guided dispersion (share), including collision risk minimization, habitat protection, and infrastructure concentration, are examined. Analysis reveals that only 7% of Norwegian land area remains consistently available across spare- share scenarios, while 67% exhibits flexible availability depending on the prioritization of ecological criteria, and 26% faces universal restrictions. Ecological restrictions reduce onshore wind capacity potential 11-fold, increasing electricity generation costs by 19-21% per MWh while investment and operational costs rise up to 6%. Despite targeting divergent ecological priorities, moderately restricted scenarios cluster within a cost- increase variation of less than 2%, reflecting biodiversity hotspot overlap that creates functionally equivalent constraints while achieving better system integration. Findings demonstrate that for 67% of land sensitive to ecological priorities, spatial allocation decisions are not technical optimization problems but require inclusive stakeholder engagement to navigate competing ecological and infrastructure values. The framework provides transferable methodological insights for regions balancing renewable expansion with biodiversity preservation

• Richards, Thomas; Zeyringer, Marianne; Wohland, Jan; Young, Petrus; Randle-Boggis, Richard & Price, James (2026). Dual-Use Solar Strategies: Modelling LandConstrained PV Deployment in Europe. I 2026, EEM (Red.), 2026 22nd International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM. IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers). ISSN 9798319535542. doi: 10.1109/EEM68581.2026.11589793. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Meeting Europe’s decarbonisation targets will require rapid expansion of solar PV, yet land-use conflicts and biodiversity protection increasingly constrain where ground mounted systems can be deployed. This paper uses the highRES electricity system model to assess how progressively stricter biodiversity protection affects solar deployment across Europe and to evaluate the economic conditions under which agrivoltaics can emerge as a viable dual land-use alternative. Results show that even stringent land-use exclusions leave sufficient unconstrained land for ground-mounted PV at system scale, though this reflects an idealised setting without competing non-energy land demands. Agrivoltaics become cost competitive only after substantial CAPEX reductions or when supported by significant agricultural co-benefits. These findings highlight the need to integrate land-use protection, renewable energy planning, and agricultural policy to enable land efficient solar expansion.

• Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Vågerö, Oskar; Zeyringer, Marianne & Price, James (2026). Analyzing Social and Environmental Considerations in Past Onshore Wind Infrastructure Siting Decisions. International Conference on the European Energy Market. ISSN 2165-4077. doi: 10.1109/EEM68581.2026.11589750. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Mostue, Idunn Aamnes; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Baños, David; Storelvmo, Trude & Zeyringer, Marianne (2026). Widespread increase in frequency and duration of European wind droughts based on CMIP6 projections. iScience. 29(3). doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2026.115075. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  To combat climate change, wind power represents an important energy source. However, the availability and reliability of wind resources are subject to weather conditions and the potential impact of climate change. This study utilizes five CMIP6 model projections under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario to analyze future wind speeds and extreme wind events across Europe for the periods 2040–2059 and 2080–2099. We find a widespread increase in the annual frequency of weak wind events up to 10%–20% in some regions, most significantly over western Europe. While winter frequencies for weak winds may decrease in some regions, the duration of these events is projected to rise in northern and eastern Europe. Conversely, and with less model agreement, strong wind events could increase by up to 70% in the southern North Sea and offshore northern Spain. These results underscore the critical need for climate adaptive and climate-resilient energy systems planning.

• Hvidsten, Tobias Verheugen; Roithner, Maximilian; Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2025). Driving towards net-zero: the impact of electric vehicle flexibility participation on a future Norwegian electricity system. Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability. 5(2). doi: 10.1088/2634-4505/ade0e6. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Electric vehicle (EV) batteries have a proven flexibility potential which could serve as an alternative to conventional electricity storage solutions. EV batteries could support the balancing of supply and demand, and the integration of variable renewable energy into the electricity system. The flexibility potential from EVs, in distinction to conventional battery storage, depends on the vehicle user’s willingness and opportunity to make their vehicle available for flexibility. This rate of participation is often not considered in modelling studies, despite the impact EV flexibility could have on the electricity system. This work presents a modelling study of the Norwegian electricity system using the high spatial and temporal resolution electricity system model (highRES). Two different charging strategies for EVs, flexible charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G), are optimised in conjunction with the design and dispatch of the electricity system. By varying the rate of participation in the charging strategies we demonstrate their benefits for a future net-zero electricity system. Our findings show EVs’ potential to eliminate the need for stationary battery storage with just 50% participation in V2G. In addition, we find that the EV flexibility contributes to reductions in the total system cost by almost 4% and 15% assuming 100% participation in flexible charging and V2G, respectively.

• Roithner, Maximilian; Velasco-Herrejón, Paola; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Vågerö, Oskar & Hvidsten, Tobias Verheugen [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Balancing act: the cost of wind restrictions in Norway’s electricity transition. Environmental Research: Energy. 2(3). doi: 10.1088/2753-3751/adde62. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce its dependency on energy imports, the pace, and scale of renewable energy deployment across Europe must increase dramatically over the next decade. Such a steep change in the net-zero transition will inevitably necessitate trade-offs with other societal priorities. Here we investigate a case study focused on the opposition towards onshore wind and the compromises that may need to be made to deliver its plans for deep electrification. Using an electricity system model, we explore the implications of key social and environmental dimensions shaping the future deployment of onshore wind on the costs and design of electricity systems for Norway in 2030. We find that under restrictions that allow for almost no additional onshore wind, demand cannot be met and load has to be shed. Yet, when reducing the restrictions on onshore wind or allowing for in-country transmission expansion, feasible system designs at a small fraction of that cost can be found. To meet the net-zero targets, compromises will need to be made on either wind power deployment, transmission expansion, non-electrification of industry or demand reduction.

• Mroczkowski, Tony; Gallardo, Patricio A.; Timpe, Martin; Kiselev, Aleksej; Groh, Manuel & Kaercher, Hans [Vis alle 26 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). The conceptual design of the 50-meter Atacama Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (AtLAST). Astronomy and Astrophysics (A & A). ISSN 0004-6361. 694. doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/202449786. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The (sub)millimeter sky contains a vast wealth of information that is both complementary and inaccessible to other wavelengths. Over half the light we receive is observable at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths, yet we have mapped only a small portion of the sky at sufficient spatial resolution and sensitivity to detect and resolve distant galaxies or star-forming cores within their large- scale environments. For decades, the astronomical community has highlighted the need for a large, high-throughput (sub)millimeter (λ ~ 0.35–10 mm) single dish. The Atacama Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope (AtLAST), with its 50-m aperture and 2° maximal field of view, aims to be such a facility. We present here the preliminary design concept for AtLAST, developed through an EU Horizon 2020-funded design study. Our design approach begins with a long lineage of (sub)millimeter telescopes, relies on calculations and simulations to realize the optics, and uses finite element analysis to optimize the conceptual designs for the mechanical structure and subsystems. The demanding technical requirements for AtLAST, set by transformative science goals, have motivated the design effort to combine novel concepts with lessons learned from previous efforts. The result is an innovative rocking chair design with six instrument bays, two of which are mounted on Nasmyth platforms, inside a large receiver cabin. Ultimately, AtLAST aims to achieve a surface accuracy of a ≤20 µm root mean square half wavefront error, corresponding to the goal of a Ruze efficiency of >50% at 950 GHz. We conclude that a closed-loop metrology of the active primary surface will be required to achieve our surface accuracy goal. In the next phase of the project, we shall prototype and test such a metrology on existing platforms, with the goal of delivering a mature, construction-ready design by the end of this decade.

• Greevenbroek, Koen van; Schmidt, Johannes; Zeyringer, Marianne & Horsch, Alexander (2025). Little to lose: The case for a robust European green hydrogen strategy. Joule. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2025.101974. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Europe is bound by the Paris Agreement to transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; the EU has further proposed a 90% emissions reduction target already for 2040. Green hydrogen (that is, hydrogen produced from clean electricity) is often framed as a key component in the transition to net-zero emissions, being a viable emissions-free alternative to fossil fuels in some contexts. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the research literature about how much green hydrogen Europe might need to produce in the next couple of decades. The optimal production level depends on various uncertain factors such as competition (fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage as well as imports) and demand (related to electrification rates, especially of land transportation). This study analyzes green hydrogen production pathways under a large set of different scenarios, with the aim of identifying a robust production target. We find that a green hydrogen production target of some 25 Mt/a by 2040 hedges against the risk of failing carbon capture and storage and green fuel imports. While subsidies would be required to reach the target in most cases, we show that the outcome is unlikely to be overly expensive. Specifically, total system cost is kept to within 10% of the cost-optimum in most scenarios—Europe risks little by committing to such a target. Notably, however, the target could be lowered if transportation electrification was sped up. Narrowing down the uncertainties surrounding green fuel imports and carbon sequestration potential are also high priorities for future research. The methods developed in this study could readily be applied to different regions and continents.

• McKenna, Russell; Lilliestam, Johan; Heinrichs, Heidi U.; Weinand, Jann; Schmidt, Johannes & Staffell, Iain [Vis alle 23 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). System impacts of wind energy developments: Key research challenges and opportunities. Joule. 9(1). doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2024.11.016. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Zeyringer, Marianne & Benth, Fred Espen (2025). Trading off regional and overall energy system design flexibility in the net-zero transition. Nature Sustainability. doi: 10.1038/s41893-025-01556-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Thetransitiontonet-zeroemissionsinEuropeisdeterminedbyapatchworkofcountry-levelandEUwide policy, creating coordination challenges in an interconnected system. We use an optimisation model to mapoutnear-optimal energy system designs for 2050, focussing on the planning flexibility of individual regions while maintaining overall system robustness against different weather years, cost assumptions, and land use limitations. Our results reveal extensive flexibility at a regional level, where only few technologies (solar around the Adriatic and wind on the British Isles and in Germany) cannot be substituted. National policymakers can influence renewable energy export and hydrogen strategies significantly, provided they coordinate this with the remaining European system. However, stronger commitment to solar in Southern Europe and Germany unlocks more design options for Europe overall. These results on regional trade-offs facilitate more meaningful policy discussions which are crucial in the transition to a sustainable energy system.

• Grochowicz, Aleksander; Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2024). Spatio-temporal smoothing and dynamics of different electricity flexibility options for highly renewable energy systems—Case study for Norway. Applied Energy. ISSN 0306-2619. 356. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122338. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In this article, we investigate the mismatch of renewable electricity production to demand and how flexibility options enabling spatial and temporal smoothing can reduce risks of variability. As a case study we pick a simplified (partial) 2-region representation of the Norwegian electricity system and focus on wind power. We represent regional electricity production and demand through two stochastic processes: the wind capacity factors are modelled as a two-dimensional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and electricity demand consists of realistic base load and temperature-induced load coming from a deseasonalised autoregressive process. We validate these processes, that we have trained on historical data, through Monte Carlo simulations allowing us to generate many statistically representative weather years. For the investigated realisations (weather years) we study deviations of production from demand under different wind capacities, and introduce different scenarios where flexibility options like storage and transmission are available. Our analysis shows that simulated loss values are reduced significantly by cooperation between regions and either mode of flexibility. Combining storage and transmission leads to even more synergies and helps to stabilise production levels and thus reduces likelihoods of inadequacy of renewable power systems.

• Mathisen, Siri Gulaker; Zeyringer, Marianne; Haaskjold, Kristina; Löffler, Konstantin; Mata, Érika & Sandvall, Akram [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). The REPowerEU policy's impact on the Nordic power system. Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 54. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101454. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Energy system models provide us with scenarios for the future energy system, supporting our understanding of the impact of societal changes and adopted policies. To front-load the EU’Fit for 55’ package for 2030 and targets of replacing imported natural gas with renewable electricity, the Nordic countries could contribute by exporting additional electricity to mainland Europe. This paper describes a comparative study including five energy system models – GENeSYS-MOD, ON-TIMES, IFE-TIMES-Norway, highRES, and IntERACT, exploring two decarbonisation scenarios leading up to 2050. The scenarios involved simulating an additional 30 TWh electricity export requirement from 2030. Key findings include Denmark and Norway emerging as major net exporters, with Denmark covering over 60% of the additional export. The models predict that 76%–82% of the new electricity production will come from wind power, split between onshore and offshore installations, highlighting significant investment requirements. These results underscore the Nordic countries’ capacity to support the EU’s renewable energy targets, with wind power being pivotal. This research offers a broad overview over different modelling tools and their behaviour and provides critical insights for policymakers, stressing the need for coordinated Nordic efforts to maximise the benefits of increased electricity exports while ensuring energy system stability and cost-efficiency.

• Vågerö, Oskar; Bråte, Anders; Wittemann, Alexandra Knudsen; Robinson, Jessica Yarin; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sirotko-Sibirskaya, Natalia (2024). Machine learning of public sentiments towards wind energy in Norway. Wind Energy. ISSN 1095-4244. doi: 10.1002/we.2902. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Across Europe, negative public opinion has and may continue to limit the deployment of renewable energy infrastructure required for the transition to net-zero energy systems. Understanding public sentiment and its spatio-temporal variations is as such important for decision-making and for developing socially accepted energy systems. In this study, we apply a sentiment classification model based on a machine learning framework for natural language processing, NorBERT, on data collected from Twitter between 2006 and 2022 to analyse the case of wind power opposition in Norway. From the 68,828 tweets with geospatial information, we show how discussions about wind power intensified in 2018/2019 together with a trend of more negative tweets up until 2020, both on a regional level and for Norway as a whole. Furthermore, we find weak geographical clustering in our data, indicating that discussions are country wide and not dominated by specific regional events or developments. Twitter data allow for detailed insight into the temporal nature of public sentiments and extending this research to additional case studies of technologies, countries and sources of data (e.g. newspapers, other social media) may prove important to complement traditional survey research and the understanding of public sentiment.

• Viole, Isabelle; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Sartori, Sabrina & Zeyringer, Marianne (2024). Integrated life cycle assessment in off-grid energy system design—Uncovering low hanging fruit for climate mitigation. Applied Energy. ISSN 0306-2619. 367. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123334. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Viole, Isabelle; Shen, Li; Camargo, Luis Ramirez; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sartori, Sabrina (2024). Sustainable astronomy: A comparative life cycle assessment of off-grid hybrid energy systems to supply large telescopes. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. ISSN 0948-3349. doi: 10.1007/s11367-024-02288-9. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar; Inderberg, Tor Håkon Jackson & Zeyringer, Marianne (2024). The effects of fair allocation principles on energy system model designs. Environmental Research: Energy. 1(4). doi: 10.1088/2753-3751/ad8e6a. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  What constitutes socially just or unjust energy systems or transitions can be derived from philosophy and theories of justice. Assessments of distributive justice and utilising them in modelling lead to great differences based on which justice principles are applied. From the limited research so far published in the intersection between energy systems modelling and justice, we find that comparisons between the two principles of utilitarianism and egalitarianism dominate in assessments of distributive justice, with the latter most often considered representing a 'just energy system'. The lack of recognition of alternative and equally valid principles of justice, resting on e.g. capabilities, responsibilities and/or opportunities, leads to a narrow understanding of justice that fails to align with the views of different individuals, stakeholders and societies. More importantly, it can lead to the unjust design of future energy systems and energy systems analysis. In this work, we contribute to the growing amount of research on distributive justice in energy systems modelling by assessing the implications of different philosophical views on justice on modelling results. Through a modelling exercise with a power system model for Europe (highRES), we explore different designs of a future (2050) net-zero European electricity system, and its distributional implications based on the application of different justice principles. In addition to the utilitarian and egalitarian approach, we include, among others, principles of 'polluters pay' and 'ability-to-pay', which take historical contributions of greenhouse gas emissions and the socio-economic conditions of a region into account. We find that fair distributions of electricity generating infrastructure look significantly different depending on the justice principles applied. The results may stimulate a greater discussion among researchers and policymakers on the implications of different constructions of justice in modelling, expansion of approaches, and demonstrate the importance of transparency and assumptions when communicating such results.

• Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Lode, Maria Luisa; Viole, Isabelle; Felice, Alex; Alonso, Ander Martinez & Camargo, Luis Ramirez [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). A renewable and socially accepted energy system for astronomical telescopes. Nature Sustainability. doi: 10.1038/s41893-024-01442-3. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Remote astronomical telescopes without access to the national electricity grid are usually designed to rely on fossil fuels without considering the social and energy needs of the surrounding communities. Concurrently, climate change concerns and fuel price vulnerability are driving the transition to renewable energy sources. Here we propose a socially accepted renewable energy system for a future telescope in the Atacama Desert, combining an energy system model with a participatory multi-criteria analysis. Our findings highlight the fact that various stakeholders, including local residents, the municipality, the existing local utility and observatories, prioritize emissions reduction, security of supply and reduced electricity costs. The results reveal that a system supplying renewable energy to the telescope could also cover 66% of a nearby community’s energy needs without additional capacity. Stakeholder inputs show that this is the most attractive solution by developing an energy system in which all the actors benefit. Replicating similar energy systems at nearby telescopes could reduce fossil fuel-based energy generation by 30 GWh annually, cutting emissions by 18–24 ktCO2e while contributing to energy justice. The proposed approach aims to promote social acceptance of renewable energy systems by involving stakeholders in the decision-making process, integrating benefit sharing among them and contributing to the region’s emissions reduction efforts.

• Grochowicz, Aleksander; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Intersecting near-optimal spaces: European power systems with more resilience to weather variability. Energy Economics. ISSN 0140-9883. 118. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106496. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We suggest a new methodology for designing robust energy systems. For this, we investigate so-called near-optimal solutions to energy system optimisation models; solutions whose objective values deviate only marginally from the optimum. Using a refined method for obtaining explicit geometric descriptions of these near-optimal feasible spaces, we find designs that are as robust as possible to perturbations. This contributes to the ongoing debate on how to define and work with robustness in energy systems modelling. We apply our methods in an investigation using multiple decades of weather data. For the first time, we run a capacity expansion model of the European power system (one node per country) with a three-hourly temporal resolution and 41 years of weather data. While an optimisation with 41 weather years is at the limits of computational feasibility, we use the near-optimal feasible spaces of single years to gain an understanding of the design space over the full time period. Specifically, we intersect all near-optimal feasible spaces for the individual years in order to get designs that are likely to be feasible over the entire time period. We find significant potential for investment flexibility, and verify the feasibility of these designs by simulating the resulting dispatch problem with four decades of weather data. They are characterised by a shift towards more onshore wind and solar power, while emitting more than 50% less CO2 than a cost-optimal solution over that period. Our work builds on recent developments in the field, including techniques such as Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) and Modelling All Alternatives (MAA), and provides new insights into the geometry of near-optimal feasible spaces and the importance of multi-decade weather variability for energy systems design. We also provide an effective way of working with a multi-decade time frame in a highly parallelised manner. Our implementation is open-sourced, adaptable and is based on PyPSA-Eur.

• Viole, Isabelle; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Sartori, Sabrina & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Integrated Life Cycle Assessment in Off-Grid Energy System Design - Uncovering Low Hanging Fruit for Climate Mitigation. Social Science Research Network (SSRN). doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4656682. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Viole, Isabelle; Shen, Li; Camargo, Luis Ramirez; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sartori, Sabrina (2023). Sustainable Astronomy: A comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Off-grid Hybrid Energy Systems to supply large Telescopes. Research Square. ISSN 2693-5015. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3281965/v2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Lode, Maria Luisa; Viole, Isabelle; Felice, Alex; Alonso, Ander Martinez & Camargo, Luis Ramirez [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2023). Designing renewable and socially accepted energy systems for astronomical telescopes: A move towards energy justice. Research Square. ISSN 2693-5015. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3181969/v1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Viole, Isabelle; Shen, Li; Camargo, Luis Ramirez; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sartori, Sabrina (2023). Sustainable Astronomy: A comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Off-grid Hybrid Energy Systems to supply large Telescopes. Research Square. ISSN 2693-5015. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3281965/v2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Viole, Isabelle; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sartori, Sabrina (2023). A renewable power system for an off-grid sustainable telescope fueled by solar power, batteries and green hydrogen. Energy. ISSN 0360-5442. 282. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128570. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A large portion of astronomy’s carbon footprint stems from fossil fuels supplying the power demand of astronomical observatories. Here, we explore various isolated low-carbon power system setups for the newly planned Atacama Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope, and compare them to a business-as-usual diesel power generated system. Technologies included in the designed systems are photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, diesel generators, batteries, and hydrogen storage. We adapt the electricity system optimization model highRES to this case study and feed it with the telescope’s projected energy demand, cost assumptions for the year 2030 and site-specific capacity factors. Our results show that the lowest-cost system with LCOEs of $116/MWh majorly uses photovoltaics paired with batteries and fuel cells running on imported and on-site produced green hydrogen. Some diesel generators run for backup. This solution would reduce the telescope’s power-side carbon footprint by 95% compared to the business-as-usual case.

• Vågerö, Oskar & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Can we optimise for justice? Reviewing the inclusion of energy justice in energy system optimisation models. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 95. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2022.102913. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Energy systems optimisation models are used for analysing energy systems and questions of e.g. greenhouse gas mitigation aligned with the Paris Agreement. However, the techno-economic nature of energy system models has opened for discussions about how well societal aspects are represented. Studying justice implications in energy systems modelling is an opportunity to inform policy-makers and the broader society how long-term changes to energy systems may affect different social groups and how to minimise injustices. In this paper, we review how, and to what extent, aspects of social justice have been included in energy systems optimisation modelling as well as areas for future research. In addition to reviewing published journal articles and reports, we organise a workshop with energy system modellers and social scientists, providing qualitative information on past approaches and potential future venues. We identify 3 key findings: (i) Exploring alternative system configurations to cost-optimality is receiving increasing attention and typically done through a ‘modelling to generate alternatives’ approach, (ii) among formalised definitions of distributional justice, equality (equal distribution) is the most common equity principle. There is at the same time little reflection on the choice and impact of equity principles, potentially contributing to an overly narrow understanding of justice. (iii) Among the workshop participants, participatory approaches which involves stakeholders and lay people are considered a potential future area of research, especially for making modelling results and processes more accessible and impactful to the wider public.

• Craig, Michael T.; Wohland, Jan; Stoop, Laurens P.; Kies, Alexander; Pickering, Bryn & Bloomfield, Hannah C. [Vis alle 23 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2022). Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling. Joule. 6(7), s. 1405–1417. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2022.05.010. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. Here, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.

• Gruber, Katharina; Regner, Peter; Wehrle, Sebastian; Zeyringer, Marianne & Schmidt, Johannes (2022). Towards global validation of wind power simulations: A multi-country assessment of wind power simulation from MERRA-2 and ERA-5 reanalyses bias-corrected with the global wind atlas. Energy. ISSN 0360-5442. 238. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121520. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Reanalysis data are widely used for simulating renewable energy and in particular wind power generation. While MERRA-2 has been a de-facto standard in many studies for a long time, the newer ERA5-reanalysis recently gained importance. Here, both datasets were used to simulate wind power generation and evaluate their quality in terms of correlations and error measures compared to historical data of wind power generation. Due to their coarse resolution, reanalyses are known to fail to represent local climatic conditions adequately. Hence, mean bias correction was applied with two versions of the Global Wind Atlas (GWA) to the reanalysis data and the quality of the resulting simulations was assessed. Potential users of these datasets can also benefit from our analysis of the impact of spatial and temporal aggregation on indicators of simulation quality. We also assessed regions which differ significantly in terms of the prevailing climate, some of which are underrepresented in similar studies: the US, Brazil, South-Africa, and New Zealand. Our principal findings are threefold. (i) ERA5 outperforms MERRA-2 in terms of the assessed error measures. (ii) Bias-correction with GWA2 does not improve simulation quality substantially, while bias-correction with GWA3 is detrimental. (iii) Temporal aggregation increases correlations and reduces errors, while spatial aggregation does so consistently only when comparing very fine and very coarse granularities.

• Price, James & Zeyringer, Marianne (2022). highRES-Europe: The high spatial and temporal Resolution Electricity System model for Europe. SoftwareX. 17. doi: 10.1016/j.softx.2022.101003. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The high spatial and temporal resolution electricity system model, highRES, is used to design cost-effective, flexible and weather resilient electricity systems for Great Britain and Europe. The model is specifically designed to analyse the effects of high shares of variable renewables and explore integration/flexibility options. As the proportion of renewables in electricity generation increases, there will be increasing imbalances between electricity demand and supply. highRES is a high-resolution electricity system model that simultaneously considers infrastructure planning (investment) and operational (dispatch) decisions to identify the most cost-effective strategies to cope with growing shares of intermittent renewables. It does this by comparing and trading off potential options to integrate renewables into the system including the extension of the transmission grid, interconnection with other countries, building flexible generation (e.g. gas power stations), renewable curtailment and energy storage. highRES is written in GAMS and its objective is to minimise power system investment and operational costs to meet hourly demand, subject to a number of unit and system constraints. It can model a variety of technical characteristics of thermal generators (e.g. ramping restrictions, minimum stable generation, startup costs, minimum up and down times) depending on the requirements of the research question, their CO2 emissions, and the technical characteristics of a variety of energy storage options. The transmission grid is represented using a linear transport model.

• Price, James; Mainzer, Kai; Petrović, Stefan; Zeyringer, Marianne & McKenna, Russell (2020). The Implications of Landscape Visual Impact on Future Highly Renewable Power Systems: A Case Study for Great Britain. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. ISSN 0885-8950. 37(4), s. 3311–3320. doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2020.2992061. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Recent long term planning studies have demonstrated the important role of variable renewables (VRE) in decarbonising our energy system. However, cost-optimising models do not capture the visual impact of VREs on the landscape which can act to undermine their public acceptability. Here, we use crowd-sourced scenicness data to derive spatially explicit wind energy capacity potentials for three scenarios of public sensitivity to this visual impact. We then use these scenarios in a cost-optimising model of the GB power system to assess their impact on the cost and design of the electricity system in 2050. Our results show that total system costs can increase by up to 14.2% when public sensitivity to visual impact is high compared to low. It is thus essential for policy makers to consider these cost implications and to find mechanisms to ameliorate the visual impact of onshore wind in local communities.

• Bloomfield, H.C. & Zeyringer, Marianne (2020). The importance of weather and climate to energy systems: A workshop on Next Generation Challenges in Energy-Climate Modelling. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). ISSN 0003-0007. s. E159–E167. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0256.1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Fordham, David; Hvidsten, Tobias Verheugen; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela & Zeyringer, Marianne (2026).  The Impact of Shortage Risk Tolerance on a Future European Net-Zero Electricity System – A Multi-Objective Optimisation Approach. doi: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-20904. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Energy system models are crucial tools for planning the transition to low-carbon power systems, particularly in the context of increasing renewable energy sources (RES) integration. However, the inherent variability and uncertainty of RES generation pose challenges for ensuring system reliability. As of today, capacity expansion models often enforce strict reliability constraints, leading to conservative investment decisions that may not reflect real-world risk tolerances, ultimately leading to overdimensioned systems. Reframing planning around acceptable risk can therefore have the potential to shift investment decisions from expensive and rarely used capacity to more valuable assets, such as targeted storage or transmission. Here, we implement an allowance for shortage tolerance in an electricity system model at NUTS2 resolution, using a multi-objective optimisation approach that minimises both total system cost and energy shortage risk. We explore the trade-offs between cost and reliability by analysing solutions on the Pareto front, and how they could influence the design of a future European power system with high RES penetration. Our findings expose which regions are most vulnerable to shortages, and allow for policy makers to make informed decisions on how to balance decarbonization, affordability, and local robustness. 

• Velasco-Herrejón, Paola; Viole, Isabelle; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Sartori, Sabrina & Zeyringer, Marianne (2025). Astronomy and energy justice in the Atacama Desert. I Mejía-Montero, Adolfo (Red.), Energy Justice in Latin America. Routledge. ISSN 9781003492573. s. 181–197. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Viole, Isabelle; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Sartori, Sabrina & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Techno-environmental multi-objective optimization of energy systems for an off-grid telescope. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Mathisen, Siri Gulaker; Wolfgang, Ove; Olkkonen, Ville; Mata, Érika; Haaskjold, Kristina & Sevillano, Ignacio [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2023). Achieving National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) via Nordic Cooperation on Energy System Modelling. Fast Track to Vision 2030. ISSN 1890-0429. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Grochowicz, Aleksander & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Managing the variability in time and geography of renewable power generation. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Grochowicz, Aleksander & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Managing the variability in time and space of renewable power generation. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Grochowicz, Aleksander; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Intersecting Near-Optimal Spaces for Policy Information. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Greevenbroek, Koen van; Zeyringer, Marianne; Noll, Josef; Grochowicz, Aleksander & Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Kjernekraft er ikkje naudsynt for Noreg. Det vil heller ikkje lønna seg. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Viole, Isabelle; Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sartori, Sabrina (2023). Techno-Environmental Modelling of Energy Storage Systems for a Remote Telescope. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Zeyringer, Marianne; Noll, Josef & Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Vi treng uavhengig forsking, ikkje drøymetenking om kjernekraft. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Grochowicz, Aleksander; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2022). Intersecting near-optimal spaces for robust energy systems. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Zeyringer, Marianne; Benth, Fred Espen; Roithner, Maximilian; Grochowicz, Aleksander & Sirotko-Sibirskaya, Natalia (2022). Climate-resilient net-zero energy system design. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2021). Uncertain energy systems. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2021). Uncertain Energy Systems. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Benth, Fred Espen & Zeyringer, Marianne (2021). Er de rekordhøye strømprisene verdt det? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kurland, Henny Fossnes; Zeyringer, Marianne & Velasco-Herrejón, Paola (2024). Local participation in practice : case studies of municipal decision-making on wind power in Båtsfjord and Aremark. Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet (NMBU). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Wind power production in Norway has increased the last years. Simultaneously, the opposition to wind power has increased in several municipalities along with the development. This study aims to address how the local communities perceive their opportunities to participate in decision-making processes about wind energy in Norway, which concerns are connected to wind power in their municipality, and map who the participants are. This is done as case studies in the municipalities Aremark and Båtsfjord, using a qualitative approach with semi-structured interviews to identify the perspectives. As opposed to other research found within this field, the focus in this research are the people in the municipalities without a particular position. The findings indicate concerns related to noise, destruction of nature and the municipalities’ benefits from hosting wind power. The perspectives on the opportunities to participate in the licensing process are split in the two municipalities, where the opportunities are perceived as better by the respondents from Båtsfjord than the respondents from Aremark. The actors are identified as the municipality board, NVE, the landowners and wind power developers. Whether or not the local community can be considered an actor is unclear. This thesis highlights the need for further discussion regarding the wind power licensing process in Norway to ensure better collaboration between the actors involved.

• Marstein, Erik Stensrud; Fagerström, Jonathan; Zeyringer, Marianne & Klyve, Øyvind Sommer (2024). Value of Hybrid Solar-Wind Power Plants in Deregulated Markets. Universitetet i Oslo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Co-locating and co-operating solar and wind power assets in hybrid power plants (HyPPs) presents a promising solution for increasing the share of renewable energy and reducing global carbon emissions. This research investigates how HyPPs can economically outperform stand-alone solar or wind plants in deregulated electricity markets, focusing on the Nordic region. The primary advantages of HyPPs lie in their ability to share the infrastructure that connects them to the grid with minimal energy curtailment losses. This thesis demonstrates how this can lead to lower investment, operational, and development costs. Moreover, HyPPs can bypass some of the delays associated with concessions for grid connection and land access, thereby accelerating the deployment of renewable energy. However, in terms of market dynamics, the thesis shows that HyPPs offer limited improvements in forecasting accuracy or market price capture compared to stand-alone wind and solar plants with equivalent capacities under Nordic market conditions. The main financial benefits of HyPPs are thus primarily related to infrastructure cost savings rather than improved market performance. Overall, the findings suggest that developing HyPPs is a cost-effective strategy for scaling up renewable energy, supporting climate goals while addressing practical barriers that currently hinder the growth of solar and wind power.

• Wolfgang, Ove; Mathisen, Siri Gulaker; Hansson, Julia; Unluturk, Burcu; Wisell, Tomas & Chang, Miguel [Vis alle 14 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2023). Fossil‐free and resource efficient transport - Nordic Energy Outlooks - Final report WP4. SINTEF Energi AS. ISSN 9788259437969. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Mathisen, Siri Gulaker; Wolfgang, Ove; Andersen, Simon Brøndum; Andersen, Kristoffer Steen; Belsnes, Michael Martin & Haaskjold, Kristina [Vis alle 16 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2022). Increased electrification – new generators and consumers. Nordic Energy Outlooks - Final report WP2. SINTEF Energi AS. ISSN 9788259437914. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA