Oskar Vågerö

• Venegas, Guillermo Andrés Valenzuela; Vågerö, Oskar; Zeyringer, Marianne & Price, James (2026). Analyzing Social and Environmental Considerations in Past Onshore Wind Infrastructure Siting Decisions. International Conference on the European Energy Market. ISSN 2165-4077. doi: 10.1109/EEM68581.2026.11589750. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Roithner, Maximilian; Velasco-Herrejón, Paola; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Vågerö, Oskar & Hvidsten, Tobias Verheugen [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Balancing act: the cost of wind restrictions in Norway’s electricity transition. Environmental Research: Energy. 2(3). doi: 10.1088/2753-3751/adde62. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and reduce its dependency on energy imports, the pace, and scale of renewable energy deployment across Europe must increase dramatically over the next decade. Such a steep change in the net-zero transition will inevitably necessitate trade-offs with other societal priorities. Here we investigate a case study focused on the opposition towards onshore wind and the compromises that may need to be made to deliver its plans for deep electrification. Using an electricity system model, we explore the implications of key social and environmental dimensions shaping the future deployment of onshore wind on the costs and design of electricity systems for Norway in 2030. We find that under restrictions that allow for almost no additional onshore wind, demand cannot be met and load has to be shed. Yet, when reducing the restrictions on onshore wind or allowing for in-country transmission expansion, feasible system designs at a small fraction of that cost can be found. To meet the net-zero targets, compromises will need to be made on either wind power deployment, transmission expansion, non-electrification of industry or demand reduction.

• Lombardi, Francesco; Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Lau, Michael; Neumann, Fabian & Patankar, Neha [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Near-optimal energy planning strategies with modeling to generate alternatives to flexibly explore practically desirable options. Joule. s. 102144–102144. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2025.102144. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Cost-optimizing energy planning models are widespread in supporting energy transition planning decisions. Nonetheless, finding a ‘‘cost-optimal’’ planning strategy provides only a false sense of certainty. Stakeholders may prefer other economically comparable alternatives due to unaccounted-for features. Multi-objective or robust optimization, among others, can efficiently explore alternatives whose desired secondary features are well defined. ‘‘Modeling to generate alternatives’’ (MGA) explores alternatives systematically, including alternatives whose features, such as social viability, are hard to model, albeit key to practical implementation. Computational and interpretation barriers hindered past MGA usage and integration with other methods, but recent developments enable going beyond such barriers. We synthesize such developments and provide practical recommendations for applying MGA in five levels of increasing benefit. Even the simplest levels, requiring little computational effort, can substantially improve the quality of energy planning analyses. At the highest level of integration, MGA can facilitate identifying consensus strategies, accelerating the energy transition.

• Mathisen, Siri Gulaker; Zeyringer, Marianne; Haaskjold, Kristina; Löffler, Konstantin; Mata, Érika & Sandvall, Akram [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). The REPowerEU policy's impact on the Nordic power system. Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 54. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101454. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Energy system models provide us with scenarios for the future energy system, supporting our understanding of the impact of societal changes and adopted policies. To front-load the EU’Fit for 55’ package for 2030 and targets of replacing imported natural gas with renewable electricity, the Nordic countries could contribute by exporting additional electricity to mainland Europe. This paper describes a comparative study including five energy system models – GENeSYS-MOD, ON-TIMES, IFE-TIMES-Norway, highRES, and IntERACT, exploring two decarbonisation scenarios leading up to 2050. The scenarios involved simulating an additional 30 TWh electricity export requirement from 2030. Key findings include Denmark and Norway emerging as major net exporters, with Denmark covering over 60% of the additional export. The models predict that 76%–82% of the new electricity production will come from wind power, split between onshore and offshore installations, highlighting significant investment requirements. These results underscore the Nordic countries’ capacity to support the EU’s renewable energy targets, with wind power being pivotal. This research offers a broad overview over different modelling tools and their behaviour and provides critical insights for policymakers, stressing the need for coordinated Nordic efforts to maximise the benefits of increased electricity exports while ensuring energy system stability and cost-efficiency.

• Vågerö, Oskar; Bråte, Anders; Wittemann, Alexandra Knudsen; Robinson, Jessica Yarin; Zeyringer, Marianne & Sirotko-Sibirskaya, Natalia (2024). Machine learning of public sentiments towards wind energy in Norway. Wind Energy. ISSN 1095-4244. doi: 10.1002/we.2902. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Across Europe, negative public opinion has and may continue to limit the deployment of renewable energy infrastructure required for the transition to net-zero energy systems. Understanding public sentiment and its spatio-temporal variations is as such important for decision-making and for developing socially accepted energy systems. In this study, we apply a sentiment classification model based on a machine learning framework for natural language processing, NorBERT, on data collected from Twitter between 2006 and 2022 to analyse the case of wind power opposition in Norway. From the 68,828 tweets with geospatial information, we show how discussions about wind power intensified in 2018/2019 together with a trend of more negative tweets up until 2020, both on a regional level and for Norway as a whole. Furthermore, we find weak geographical clustering in our data, indicating that discussions are country wide and not dominated by specific regional events or developments. Twitter data allow for detailed insight into the temporal nature of public sentiments and extending this research to additional case studies of technologies, countries and sources of data (e.g. newspapers, other social media) may prove important to complement traditional survey research and the understanding of public sentiment.

• Vågerö, Oskar; Inderberg, Tor Håkon Jackson & Zeyringer, Marianne (2024). The effects of fair allocation principles on energy system model designs. Environmental Research: Energy. 1(4). doi: 10.1088/2753-3751/ad8e6a. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  What constitutes socially just or unjust energy systems or transitions can be derived from philosophy and theories of justice. Assessments of distributive justice and utilising them in modelling lead to great differences based on which justice principles are applied. From the limited research so far published in the intersection between energy systems modelling and justice, we find that comparisons between the two principles of utilitarianism and egalitarianism dominate in assessments of distributive justice, with the latter most often considered representing a 'just energy system'. The lack of recognition of alternative and equally valid principles of justice, resting on e.g. capabilities, responsibilities and/or opportunities, leads to a narrow understanding of justice that fails to align with the views of different individuals, stakeholders and societies. More importantly, it can lead to the unjust design of future energy systems and energy systems analysis. In this work, we contribute to the growing amount of research on distributive justice in energy systems modelling by assessing the implications of different philosophical views on justice on modelling results. Through a modelling exercise with a power system model for Europe (highRES), we explore different designs of a future (2050) net-zero European electricity system, and its distributional implications based on the application of different justice principles. In addition to the utilitarian and egalitarian approach, we include, among others, principles of 'polluters pay' and 'ability-to-pay', which take historical contributions of greenhouse gas emissions and the socio-economic conditions of a region into account. We find that fair distributions of electricity generating infrastructure look significantly different depending on the justice principles applied. The results may stimulate a greater discussion among researchers and policymakers on the implications of different constructions of justice in modelling, expansion of approaches, and demonstrate the importance of transparency and assumptions when communicating such results.

• Vågerö, Oskar & Zeyringer, Marianne (2023). Can we optimise for justice? Reviewing the inclusion of energy justice in energy system optimisation models. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 95. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2022.102913. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Energy systems optimisation models are used for analysing energy systems and questions of e.g. greenhouse gas mitigation aligned with the Paris Agreement. However, the techno-economic nature of energy system models has opened for discussions about how well societal aspects are represented. Studying justice implications in energy systems modelling is an opportunity to inform policy-makers and the broader society how long-term changes to energy systems may affect different social groups and how to minimise injustices. In this paper, we review how, and to what extent, aspects of social justice have been included in energy systems optimisation modelling as well as areas for future research. In addition to reviewing published journal articles and reports, we organise a workshop with energy system modellers and social scientists, providing qualitative information on past approaches and potential future venues. We identify 3 key findings: (i) Exploring alternative system configurations to cost-optimality is receiving increasing attention and typically done through a ‘modelling to generate alternatives’ approach, (ii) among formalised definitions of distributional justice, equality (equal distribution) is the most common equity principle. There is at the same time little reflection on the choice and impact of equity principles, potentially contributing to an overly narrow understanding of justice. (iii) Among the workshop participants, participatory approaches which involves stakeholders and lay people are considered a potential future area of research, especially for making modelling results and processes more accessible and impactful to the wider public.

• Vågerö, Oskar; Kverndokk, Snorre & Nævdal, Eric (2021). Finnes det alternativer til CCS for å redusere utslipp fra sement? Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. s. 31–44. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Vågerö, Oskar (2024). Modelling social aspects of the energy transition. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2024). Inkluderande modellering av energisystem - Insikter från Longyearbyen, Svalbard. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2024). Machine learning for public sentiment - An exploration of wind energy sentiment on Norwegian Twitter. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Greevenbroek, Koen van; Zeyringer, Marianne; Noll, Josef; Grochowicz, Aleksander & Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Kjernekraft er ikkje naudsynt for Noreg. Det vil heller ikkje lønna seg. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Å vere doktorgradsstipendiat på ITS. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Modelling the just allocation of energy infrastructure - Implications of assumptions and definitions of justice on model results. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Kva synast folk på Twitter om vindmøller? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Greevenbroek, Koen van; Grochowicz, Aleksander; Zeyringer, Marianne; Noll, Josef & Vågerö, Oskar (2023). Vi treng uavhengig forsking, ikkje drøymetenking om kjernekraft. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2022). Socially just energy systems and justice principles. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2022). Just modelling. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2022). Korleis definerast rettferdig fordeling av energi-relatert infrastruktur? Perspektiv frå modellering av energisystem. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2021). The inclusion of justice perspectives in energy systems modelling - A review of current practices and the way ahead. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vågerö, Oskar (2025). Socially inclusive energy transitions - Energy systems, models and justice. Universitetet i Oslo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The transformation of countries’ energy systems is more than just technical challenges of building more renewable energy. Instead, how people behave, cultural values and practices as well as perceptions of fairness and justice are all important for changing systems and to mitigate climate change. This thesis investigates how models, used to inform energy planning decisions by governments and international organisations, are changing to account for these aspects, particularly notions of justice. Modellers are looking for new data, methods and approaches, but there is little systematic research comparing these, outlining challenges and showcasing promising directions for application. What types of justice can models integrate? How do you define justice and what does that mean for results and recommendations? Can models be used in new ways together with both experts and lay-people? This thesis seeks to answer these questions, and how models can contribute to socially inclusive energy transitions. Normally, models focus on identifying the cheapest way of designing a system. New techniques allow modellers to generate a range of results that are cheap (just not the cheapest) and present these to people and experts. This allows for inclusive processes, transparency and a greater discussion of what is important when making decisions.

• Mathisen, Siri Gulaker; Wolfgang, Ove; Andersen, Simon Brøndum; Andersen, Kristoffer Steen; Belsnes, Michael Martin & Haaskjold, Kristina [Vis alle 16 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2022). Increased electrification – new generators and consumers. Nordic Energy Outlooks - Final report WP2. SINTEF Energi AS. ISSN 9788259437914. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA