spring_2022

We introduce SMARTboost (boosting of symmetric smooth additive regression trees), a machine learning model capable of fitting complex functions in high dimensions, yet designed for good performance in small n and low signal-to-noise environments. SMARTboost inherits many of the qualities that have made boosted trees the most widely used machine learning tool for tabular data; it automatically adjusts model complexity, handles continuous and discrete features, can capture nonlinear functions in high dimensions without overfitting, performs variable selection, and can handle highly non-Gaussian features. The combination of smooth symmetric trees and of carefully designed Bayesian priors gives SMARTboost an edge (in comparison with a state-of-the-art tool like XGBoost) in most settings with continuous and mixed discrete-continuous features. Unlike other tree-based methods, it can also compute marginal effects.

Maintenance plays a crucial role in ships and especially in the vital electric propulsion system. Intelligent predictive maintenance idealistically aims at preventing system failures and minimizing needless repairs, i.e., predicting failure likelihood and time to failure while providing the crew explainable predictions and recommending the best action for timely intervention. This presentation will cover a relevant work in collaboration with Sensor Systems in BigInsight, particularly a paper published under https://doi.org/10.1109/TII.2022.3144177. The failure prediction approach is driven by event logs, which include warnings, alarms, and operational information that describe all the happenings onboard the ship. The failure prediction objective is turned into classification and regression tasks; however, the training data pose three challenges. The events are irregular textual messages. The training data samples are not labelled. The datasets are extremely imbalanced, due to sparse failure events and multiple failure modes. The problem is casted into a weakly supervised machine learning framework. In a multiple instance learning process, the ungiven data labels are learned recursively while fitting the model parameters using deterministic annealing. The overall approach was tested on real ship data, and it successively forecasted few propulsion failures with explainable causes.