About the project
This is a work package that is a part of a RCN (Havet og Kysten) project, “Integrated Model System: Risk and Ecosystem Based Management of Arctic Waters”, led by the International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS, headed by Steinar Sanni) with CEES and Department of Theoretical Biology at the Free University of Amsterdam (headed by Prof. Bas Kooijman) as partners. Current trends in environmental management point towards a common aim: Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) to achieve a holistic approach to ocean management. Several assessment methods and tools exist for environmental management, but they are presently fragmented with little communication capability. The project will develop an Integrated Model System (IMS) to link effect/risk assessment of oil and gas industry discharges to EBM, focussing on the link from individual to population level and key ecological species in pelagic Arctic food webs. The model system includes plankton and fish, and will be relevant for operational and acute discharges of hydrocarbons in Arctic marine ecosystems.The IMS will provide a link between prognostic and diagnostic assessment parameters, and between current tools for Environmental Risk Assessment and Indicators being developed in the Barents Sea and Lofoten Management Plan. This gives an opportunity to assess predicted effects/risk and monitoring data coherently using the same standards and requirements. The main role of CEES is to model the dynamics of and interactions among key ecological species of the Arctic pelagic ecosystem (WP4). The species included will be krill (M. norvegica), copepods (Calanus finmarchicus), herring, capelin and cod. The models will be based on fitting statistical models are to time series data using model selection methods for selection of explanatory variables. This will complement laboratory studies on the effect of oil on these species.
Financing
Funded by International Research Institute of Stavanger AS
Period
1.1.2012 - 31.3.2014