Abstract: Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, with complex geographical and seasonal pattern. This is expected to drive strong, spatially varying trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events, both near and far from emission sources. These changes are poorly constrained in current models, and very sparsely represented in climate risk assessments, partly because of a lack of dedicated emission pathways and multi-model investigations.
Here, we introduce The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP), which is designed to quantify and bound the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term climate projections. RAMIP experiments are based on the SSPs commonly used in CMIP6 Endorsed MIPs, but are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location, and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments assess the effects of differences emissions in East Asia, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, through 2051, using a multi-ensemble-member approach in a set of (currently) 8 Earth System Models.
We then show the first results from RAMIP, based on output from a subset of participating models, including regional and seasonal evolutions of temperature, precipitation, extreme events and sub-seasonal variability.
RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. In this talk, we show improved model based understanding can be used to forge direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change, through input of physical hazards to risk assessments.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- Normally seminars will be held on Thursdays (12:15 pm -1pm).