Abstract:
Plausible climate scenarios and feasible mitigation pathways require considering the feedbacks within and between human and earth systems. Currently, integrated assessment models (IAMs) representing the human systems and the climate and earth system models (ESMs) are neither hard-coupled nor include the key feedbacks. Simple, aggregate models of climate, economy and environment that do not have the sectorial and geographical detail of large models, yet explicitly include human-earth system interactions can help exploring the implications of these feedbacks and support further detailed analysis by larger IAMs and ESMs. One of such models is FeliX. The FeliX model is a globally aggregate, computationally efficient and feedback-rich IAM based on system dynamics methodology. It captures the core physical and anthropogenic mechanisms of global environmental and economic change within and between economy, energy, carbon cycle, climate, biodiversity, water, population, and land use. In this talk, I will focus on how the FeliX model is used explore the dietary change, sustainable development and poverty scenarios that result from modelling the feedbacks between social, climate and land use dynamics. Based on these examples, I will discuss the multiple ways simple models can enable exploring human-earth system interactions and support detailed assessments by larger models.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- All seminars will be held on Thursdays (12:15 pm -1 pm).