Abstracts
Lena Nicola (PIK) - Exploring the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the ice-sheet models PISM and ISSM
Projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution are still subject to great uncertainties, especially with respect to changes in surface mass balance and sub-shelf melting. While the climatic forcing used as boundary conditions for ice sheet models covers the average trend in surface mass balance or ocean temperatures with global warming, extreme events, such as atmospheric heatwaves or regime shifts in the ocean, are typically not yet considered. Using targeted ice-sheet model simulations, we aim to quantify the additional sea-level rise when such extremes are accounted for, and assess their potential to trigger abrupt, possibly irreversible, changes in ice-sheet dynamics. Among others, we have focused on Thwaites Glacier and key oceanic gateways that may allow warm water to reach vulnerable grounding lines, highlighting critical thresholds for Antarctic ice loss.
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo (MPI) - Revisiting AMOC impacts: from temperature extremes to carbon uptake and the economy
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to lead to widespread climate impacts. While the long-term AMOC weakening influence on surface temperatures has been widely researched, other impacts in different timescales of variability or climatic variables have not been so thoroughly examined. I present here two different approaches to better understand these neglected AMOC impacts with Earth System Model simulations. First, I examine whether (and in what way) AMOC interannual variability influences European cold extremes when considering realistic forcings. I find that the AMOC interannual variability has the potential to influence European cold extremes, but also that this influence might be changing in a warmer climate. Second, I present an estimation of the economic impact of AMOC weakening by considering its effect on ocean carbon uptake. I quantify how much a weaker AMOC reduces ocean uptake, and conclude that this effect can be as economically relevant as its direct Northern Hemisphere cooling effect.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- Normally seminars will be held on Thursdays (12:15 pm -1pm).