Abstract:
Simple Climate Models (SCMs) provide an efficient way to explore potential climate futures by quickly evaluating emissions and mitigation scenarios. Their speed and flexibility enable applications beyond the capabilities of complex Earth System Models (ESMs), such as integration with integrated assessment models and real-time policy analysis. A widely used example of an SCM is the FaIR model, which has gained prominence in recent years and been applied in various contexts. However, FaIR’s current representation of the carbon cycle lacks detail, as it does not explicitly resolve carbon fluxes between different ecosystem components. This limitation reduces the model’s flexibility and restricts its applicability in carbon-focused research.
Here, we introduce CARMEN, a new physical carbon cycle model designed to address these limitations. CARMEN is calibrated against a broad dataset of CMIP6 ESM simulations, including 1pctCO2, historical, and SSP scenarios from 13 CMIP6 ESMs, yielding 13 ESM-specific configurations that emulate the carbon cycle behaviour of each corresponding ESM. CARMEN’s emulations generally match the target ESM more closely than any other model in the set, including under overshoot conditions.
We also discuss plans to couple CARMEN with other models and to run a carbon-cycle-focused SCM intercomparison under the umbrella of a new reduced-complexity model intercomparison project (RCMIP) exercise.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- Normally seminars will be held on Thursdays (12:15 pm -1pm).