Abstract: Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects. In this talk, I lay out the ways in which current climate risk assessment processes obscure aerosol signals and argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. I present recent work that highlights the physical mechanisms via which the evolving spatial pattern of aerosol emissions produces unique fingerprints of climate hazards, such as heatwaves and fire weather. Finally, I outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.
What is the Joint Oslo Seminar (JOS):
- Atmospheric and climate sciences have a stronghold in Oslo among the four institutions University of Oslo, the Meteorological Institute, CICERO and NILU.
- This joint seminar invites renowned international experts to contribute to an informal series of lectures, meant to create interaction with the Oslo atmospheric and climate science community on recent highlights and analysis in the field.
- Normally seminars will be held on Thursdays (12:15 pm -1pm).