Improved forecasting of adverse weather in the Arctic region – present and future (IPY-Thorpex) (completed)
The aim of the IPY-THORPEX project is to improve the accuracy of high-impact weather forecasts in the Arctic region for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment.
About the project
In the Arctic region of the North Atlantic, an array of adverse weather phenomena takes place exposing the expanding human activities - such as oil and gas exploration and marine transport - and the region’s vulnerable environment to high risks. There is a need for improving the understanding and forecasting of adverse weather in the region. During winter, advection of extremely cold and stable air from the seaice/ land over the open ocean can lead to intense weather features such as Arctic fronts, polar lows and terrain-induced disturbances.
- To realistically model the latent heat cycle, from evaporation at the surface, through moist convection and latent heat release, to precipitation processes.
- To improve the treatment of cloud-radiation-sea-ice interactions in numerical model simulations for the Arctic.
- To investigate relations between synoptic and climatic conditions and the onset, evolution, and frequency of small-scale extreme weather events.
- To significantly improve the characterization of initial conditions for Arctic weather forecasts by assimilation of new satellite and radar data.
- To introduce probabilistic forecasts of Arctic weather extremes by implementing a high-resolution limited area ensemble prediction system.
IPY-Thorpex started in Januar 2007 and ends 2011.
See also the Norwegian project-site.