Abstract:
Centuries of work have highlighted the importance of several characteristics on fracture propagation. However, the relative importance of each characteristic on the likelihood of propagation remains elusive. We rank this importance by performing dynamic X-ray microtomography experiments that provide unique access to characteristics of evolving fracture networks as rocks are triaxially compressed toward failure. We employed a machine learning technique based on logistic regression analysis to predict whether or not a fracture grows from 14 fracture geometry and network characteristics identified throughout four experiments on crystalline rocks in which thousands of fractures propagated. The characteristics that best predict fracture growth are the length, thickness, volume, and orientation of fractures with respect to the external stress field, and the distance to the closest neighboring fracture. Growing fractures tend to be more clustered, shorter, thinner, volumetrically smaller, and dipping closer to 30-60° from the maximum compression direction than closing fractures.