Modelling plague persistence on large spatial scales, and Monitoring plague outbreaks from space
CEES Extra Seminar by Marieke Jesse, Boris Schmid and Liesbeth Wilschut
We will present the current research done in Utrecht (NL) on the dynamics of bubonic plague outbreaks in Kazakhstan. Firstly, we present work on plague persistence in a meta-population model on a scale of 2x2km (~ 100 burrows), and in a cellular automa on a scale of 200x400km (the Prebalkhash plains). Secondly, we discuss the techniques and feasibility of using satellite imagery to track changes in the local vegetation, and thus predict the density and distribution of gerbils, the natural host of plague-carrying fleas in Kazakhstan.
Marieke Jesse, Boris Schmid and Liesbeth Wilschut