This seminar is organized by CEES and Centre for Pandemics and One-Health Research (P1H).
Streaming
There will be live streaming, but the even will not be recorded.
Programme
Preventing spillover and pandemics is an ecological issue
Peter Hudson, Professor and Fellow of the Royal Society of London
Abstract
By their very nature, pathogens that cause pandemics spread exponentially amongst humans with a short generation time, making containment in the human population almost impossible. The solution is to focus on pre-emergence and prevent spillover, which I argue is an ecological issue, often considered impossible by the biomedical workers. Recent outbreaks are derived from bats and utilize a bridging host and I propose this is simply a vehicle for amplifying the infectious dose to humans. I examine several hypotheses about spillover and then using data collected over the past 25 years, show that Hendra spillover is driven by habitat disruption interacting with climate disruption which changes bat roosting behavior, and drives the bats into urban areas and causes spillover. The solution is ecological: habitat regeneration at scale.
- Note the updated lecture title. The lecture that was originally announced for Peter Hudson ("The persistence paradox. How do infections persist?") will instead be given at the workshop "The animal-human interface".
Computational Biology for Pandemics and Epidemics: Illustrations from the COVID-19 timeline
Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Penn State University
Abstract
As made abundantly clear by the last three years, computation is an essential tool for pandemic preparedness before, during and after outbreaks occur. I will use my experiences as a theoretical biologist during the first 3 years of the Covid-19 pandemic to illustrate essential methods and calculations needed to inform public health strategies. Because of the lack of a clear and integrated computational protocol for pathogen emergence and establishment, the burden of mortality and morbidity, as well as the economic cost of the pandemic, ended up being much higher than it should have been. Walking through the timeline of this global event, I will discuss the forces responsible for the early rise and spread, the peak of the virgin epidemic, and eventual endemicity of a new, Type IV zoonotic coronavirus. In so doing, I will touch on key concepts like the reproduction number, thresholds to establishment, critical vaccine coverage, compartmental flows ,and epidemic/endemic dynamics. I will close with some personal reflections on lessons learned that can inform public health and intervention strategies for future pandemic preparedness.
Ecology and Economics of Preventing the next Pandemic
Andy Dobson, Professor, Princeton University
Abstract
Understanding the emergence and control of novel pathogens requires a general quantitative mathematical framework based on fundamental ecological and epidemiological principles. Most of the decisions about how to deal with pandemics are driven by the economic decision makers who have the strongest influence on politicians. This creates a major need for a new class of hybrid economic-epidemiological models. In this talk I’ll examine pathogen emergence from both a macro- and microeconomic potential and illustrate results from some new models that illustrate how quickly economic and human costs rise if we delay action. Prevention is always better than cure in both the macro-and micro-economic case. Ultimately, we will all be better off if we invest in prevention of future pandemics and have better tools available (tests, vaccines and models) to slow and potentially halt outbreaks once pathogens have emerged.