Mike Begon: "Metapopulation dynamics in a two host system"
Abstract
A simple two host metapopulation model for an infectious disease is developed. We consider one main host and one secondary host. We are interested in the role of the secondary host when it can be regarded as a ‘sink’ from the pathogens point of view. A host being a ‘sink’ here means that the pathogen would go extinct if only that host species existed. We are investigating the general dynamics of the system for a set of main type metapopulations (Allee, rescue, anti-rescue) and plan to develop the pheonomenological model further to an individual based model with demographic and environmental stochasticity.
Karin Harding: "PDV (= Phocine distemper virus) and the environment"
Abstract
Phocine distemper (morbillivirus) has infected harbour seals in Europe twice. Some preliminary results of environmental and behavioral factors (and potential genetic disease resistance) that determine the disease spread will be presented and a free discussion of differences and similarities with the plague system will be encouraged. What does a simple phenomenological model for plague look like?
Other information
The CEES seminar room has a coffee-machine – it is therefore recommended that you come a bit earlier and get yourself a good cup of coffee (for the price of 3 NOK).