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Hoff, Siv Nam Khang; Maurstad, Marius Filomeno; Alan, Le Moan; Ravinet, Mark; Durant, Joël & Tørresen, Ole K.
[Show all 18 contributors for this article]
(2023).
Identification of multiple chromosomal inversions and fusions in a keystone Arctic species with high gene flow.
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Hoff, Siv Nam Khang; Maurstad, Marius Filomeno; Le Moan, Alan; Ravinet, Mark; Durant, Joël & Tørresen, Ole Kristian
[Show all 18 contributors for this article]
(2023).
Identification of multiple chromosomal inversions and fusions in a keystone Arctic species with high gene flow.
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Dupont, Nicolas; Durant, Joël; Langangen, Øystein Ole Gahr & Stige, Leif Christian
(2023).
Effects of abrupt ecological change on the Barents Sea Arctic food-web: predictions from a food-web state-space model.
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Dupont, Nicolas; Durant, Joël; Langangen, Øystein Ole Gahr & Stige, Leif Christian
(2023).
Survival of adult polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in the context of “borealization” of the Barents Sea
.
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Durant, Joël; Ono, Kotaro & Langangen, Øystein Ole Gahr
(2023).
Empirical evidence of non-linearity in the interaction between fish stocks in the Barents Sea.
Show summary
The strength of species interactions can have a significant impact on population dynamics. Empirical estimates of interaction strength are often based on the assumption that the interaction strength is constant. Several fish species interact in the Barents Sea and their population dynamics are typically modelled under the assumption of constant interaction strength. However, interactions between species are often non-linear in marine ecosystems and this could fundamentally change our understanding of food webs’ functioning. Here, we present two examples of such nonlinear interactions in the Barents Sea, between cod Gadus morhua and capelin Mallotus villosus, and between cod and haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus. Analysis of long survey time series in the Arcto-boreal Barents Sea within a state-space modelling framework showed that the effect of capelin on cod is not linear but varies with capelin abundance. Similarly, interactions between cod and haddock have changed over the past two decades due to rising ocean temperatures, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. Our analyses demonstrate that long-term climate change in the Arcto-boreal system leads to differences in equilibrium conditions for species communities and demonstrates the importance of investigating nonlinearities in species interactions, leading to a better understanding of species communities and species assemblages.
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Dupont, Nicolas; Durant, Joël; Langangen, Øystein Ole Gahr & Stige, Leif Christian
(2022).
Change in the Barents Sea Arctic food-web dynamic based on biotic and abiotic environmental factors.
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Durant, Joël
(2022).
Non-linearity in interspecific interactions between Barents Sea cod and haddock in response to climate change.
Show summary
Climate change is affecting many fish populations globally. For instance, sea temperature warming has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. This is particularly true in high-latitude marine ecosystems where the sea warming effect is projected to be strongest. In the cold Barents Sea, increase of sea temperature is beneficial for the productivity of many commercially important fish species, such as the haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus and the Atlantic cod Gadus morhua. These sympatric fish compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter but Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. We used 33-year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto-Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state-space threshold model, we demonstrated that long-term climate variation, as expressed by changes of sea temperature, affected species demography through different influences on density-independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in sea temperature, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (sea temperature over ca 4°C), the increase of the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long-term climate change in the Arcto-boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.
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Durant, Joël
(2022).
Match-mismatch, trophic interactions and climate change.
Show summary
Climate change is affecting the trophic interactions on which we base our understanding of marine systems. The consequence is that we must get used to a world where our hard acquired knowledge on ecosystem and trophic interactions is no longer accurate, or at least not reliably so. In other words, the models we have developed based on long-term time series may not be reliable. We know that the physiology and the mechanisms it is driving are changing at the slower pace than climate. Building mechanistic models could thus be useful to explore the future consequences of climate change.
In fish, the major driver of population dynamics is the recruitment of individuals through the reproduction process (i.e., production and survival through the early life stages). Several mechanistic hypotheses have been set forth to explain changes in fish production in relation to phenology, which is well documented to be strongly affected by climate change. One of the most well-known is the “match-mismatch” hypothesis (MMH) elaborated by David Cushing. A question is if the MMH is a useful tool to understand animal recruitment in the context of global climate change. I will present some of the latest development from my group on match-mismatch models (role of abundance and spatial distribution…) and the role of MMH for population dynamics. Finally, I will address the value of the MMH to make projection and I will highlight some of the limitation of our current understanding of MMH.
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Jentoft, Sissel & Durant, Joël
(2021).
A not so icy relationship: The Polar cod in the Barents Sea.
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Dupont, Nicolas; Durant, Joël; Gjøsæter, Harald; Langangen, Øystein Ole Gahr & Stige, Leif Christian
(2021).
Using time series to predict the future: quantifying the effects of borealization on polar cod (Boreogadus saida).
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Holt, Rebecca Emma; Bogstad, Bjarte; Durant, Joël; Dolgov, Andrey V. & Ottersen, Geir
(2019).
Erratum: Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) diet composition: Long-term interannual, seasonal, and ontogenetic patterns (ICES Journal of Marine Science (2019) DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsz082).
ICES Journal of Marine Science.
ISSN 1054-3139.
76(6).
doi:
10.1093/icesjms/fsz117.
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Dupont, Nicolas; Durant, Joel Marcel; Langangen, Øystein; Gjøsæter, Harald & Stige, Leif Christian
(2019).
Environmental effects on population annual mean length of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in the Barents Sea
.
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Dupont, Nicolas; Durant, Joel Marcel; Langangen, Øystein; Gjøsæter, Harald & Stige, Leif Christian
(2019).
Environmental effects on population
annual mean length of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in the Barents Sea
.
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Stige, Leif Christian; Durant, Joel Marcel & Langangen, Øystein
(2019).
Effects of climate change, fishing and oil on marine ecosystems.
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Stige, Leif Christian; Langangen, Øystein; Durant, Joel Marcel; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben Moland & Ottersen, Geir
(2019).
Forskning på torsk.
Biolog.
ISSN 0801-0722.
37(2),
p. 46–49.
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Stige, Leif Christian; Rogers, Lauren; Neuheimer, Anna B.; Hunsicker, Mary E.; Yaragina, Natalia A. & Ottersen, Geir
[Show all 9 contributors for this article]
(2019).
Density- and size-dependent mortality in fish early life stages.
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Fauchald, Per & Durant, Joel Marcel
(2019).
Hvorfor fluktuerer de store marine fiskebestandene?
Naturen.
ISSN 0028-0887.
143(3),
p. 124–132.
doi:
10.18261/issn.1504-3118-2019-03-06.
Show summary
Fluktuasjoner i de store fiskebestandene har store konsekvenser for fiskeriavhengige kystsamfunn, men også for de marine økosystemene. Overfiske og klimaendringer, sammen med økologiske interaksjoner som predasjon og konkurranse, er de viktigste driverne bak dynamikken. Kollaps og vekst i de store fiskebestandene har store konsekvenser for økosystemene, og resultatet kan være vedvarende bestandskollaps og uforutsette skift i økosystemet. Vi gir her en kort og selektiv oversikt over dette omfattende temaet, med eksempler fra nordlige marine økosystemer.
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Llope, Marcos; Blenckner, Thorsten; Vasilakopoulos, Paris; McGinty, Niall; Lynam, Christopher Philip & Helaouët, Pierre
[Show all 10 contributors for this article]
(2018).
Resilience of northeast Atlantic marine ecosystems.
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Llope, Marcos; Blenckner, Thorsten; Vasilakopoulos, Paris; McGinty, Niall; Lynam, Christopher Philip & Helaouët, Pierre
[Show all 10 contributors for this article]
(2018).
Continuous and abrupt changes in the resilience of northeast Atlantic marine ecosystems.
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Deris, Leana; Langangen, Øystein & Durant, Joel Marcel
(2018).
Effect of stock collapse on predator prey relationships.
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Färber, Leonie Anette; Sguotti, Camilla; Durant, Joel Marcel; Langangen, Øystein; Otto, Saskia A & Möllmann, Christian
(2018).
Detecting catastrophic transitions – the case of North Atlantic herring.
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Deris, Leana; Langangen, Øystein & Durant, Joel Marcel
(2018).
Effect of cod (Gadus morhua) predation on juvenile herring (Clupea harengus) in the Barents Sea.
Show summary
The Barents Sea is a shelf sea sustaining a highly productive ecosystem including several commercially important fish stocks among which the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua), Norwegian Spring Spawning (NSS) herring (Clupea harengus) and the Barents Sea (BS) capelin (Mallotus villosus) are key fish species in this ecosytem. NSS herring is currently one of the largest herring stocks in the world, and it is both an important prey (for e.g. cod and marine mammals) and predator species (for e.g. planktonic early life stages of fish and zooplankton).
It spawns in the Norwegian Sea in February-March and deposits eggs on the sea bottom. After hatching, larvae and 0-group appear in the upper water layer and drift by the coastal current to enter the Barents Sea where they spend their first 3 to 4 years of life before migrating to the north Atlantic as adult. It is during its juvenile life stage that the herring is susceptible to predation by the large stock of NEA cod.
Here, we develop a state-space model to estimate the effect of cod predation on young herring mortality. We used the obtained estimates to quantify at the population level the joint effect of fishing and cod predation on young herring. Our results indicate a significant effect of cod and illustrate how management of NSS herring benefits from jointly considering cod and fishing.
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Färber, Leonie Anette; Camilla, Sguotti; Durant, Joel Marcel; Langangen, Øystein; Otto, Saskia A & Möllmann, Christian
(2018).
Detecting catastrophic transitions – the case of North Atlantic herring.
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Holt, Rebecca Emma; Durant, Joel Marcel; Ottersen, Geir & Bogstad, Bjarte
(2017).
Cod diet and food web dynamics: What can we learn from the past?
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Färber, Leonie Anette; Durant, Joel Marcel; Vindenes, Yngvild & Langangen, Øystein
(2017).
Benefit of long distance migration for Barents Sea cod.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Langangen, Øystein & Dupont, Nicolas
(2017).
Barents Sea cod larvae survival and match-mismatch
.
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Diekert, Florian Klaus; Langangen, Øystein; Färber, Leonie Anette; Stige, Leif Christian & Durant, Joel Marcel
(2016).
Ticket to Spawn – Using economic data to shed light on biological hypothesis.
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Färber, Leonie Anette; Stige, Leif Christian; Durant, Joel Marcel; Diekert, Florian Klaus & Langangen, Øystein
(2016).
Ticket to Spawn – Using economic data to shed light on biological hypothesis.
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Durant, Joel Marcel
(2016).
MARmaED: MARine MAnagement and Ecosystem Dynamics under climate change.
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Durant, Joel Marcel & Ottersen, Geir
(2016).
Effect of juvenile distribution and environment on the Northeast Arctic haddock
.
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Walle, Eirik & Durant, Joel Marcel
(2015).
Investigating the effect of changes in the timing of fishing
on the breeding success of a South African seabird.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Krasnov, Yuri V.; Nikolaeva, Natalia G. & Hjermann, Dag Øystein
(2015).
Prey abundance and Competition with fish as drivers for kittiwake population in the subarctic
.
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Dankel, Dorothy Jane; Durant, Joel Marcel; Ottersen, Geir; Kjesbu, Olav Sigurd & Stenseth, Nils Christian
(2014).
"Eco-Harvest Control Rules".
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Durant, Joel Marcel & Ottersen, Geir
(2014).
Match-mismatch and climate warming, what can we expect?
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Durant, Joel Marcel
(2014).
Harvesting and Population Structure Effect on Population Growth.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Skern-Mauritzen, Mette; Krasnov, Yuri V.; Nikolaeva, Natalia G. & Lindstrøm, Ulf
(2013).
Temporal dynamics of the major predator interaction in the Barents Sea.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Ottersen, Geir & Stenseth, Nils Christian
(2013).
Impact of climate and fisheries on sub-Arctic stocks - INTRODUCTION.
Marine Ecology Progress Series.
ISSN 0171-8630.
480,
p. 199–203.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Hidalgo, Manuel & Ciannelli, Lorenzo
(2010).
How does exploitation of prey fish affect population growth rate in changing seas?
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Durant, Joel Marcel
(2009).
Response of trophic relationships to climate change in Sub-Arctic Seas.
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Durant, Joel Marcel
(2009).
Trophic interactions and climate change.
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Durant, Joel Marcel & Le Maho, Yvon
(2009).
The effect of climate variation on seabirds.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Le Bohec, Céline; Hjermann, Dag Øystein; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Sabarros, Philippe Sunil
(2009).
The King Penguin under climate changes: trend and sensitivity.
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Durant, Joel Marcel; Hjermann, Dag Øystein & Stenseth, Nils Christian
(2009).
Reversing the Match-mismatch relationship: the prey point of view.
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Durant, Joel Marcel
(2008).
Match-Mismatch: Trophic interactions and climate change.
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Sabarros, Philippe Sunil; Durant, Joel Marcel; Crawford, RJM & Stenseth, Nils Christian
(2008).
Resource sharing between three seabirds in South Africa.
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Arneberg, Per; Husson, Berengere; Siwertsson, Anna; Albretsen, Jon; Børsheim, Knut Yngve & Denechaud, Côme
[Show all 24 contributors for this article]
(2023).
Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition of the North Sea Shelf Ecosystem.
Havforskningsinstituttet.
ISSN 1893-4536.
Full text in Research Archive
Show summary
The System for Assessment of Ecological Condition, coordinated by the Norwegian Environment Agency, is intended to form the foundation for evidence-based assessments of the ecological condition of Norwegian terrestrial and marine ecosystems not covered by the EU Water Framework Directive. The reference condition is defined as “intact ecosystems”, i.e., a condition that is largely unimpacted by modern industrial anthropogenic activities. An ecosystem in good ecological condition does not deviate substantially from this reference condition in structure, functions or productivity. This report describes the first operational assessment of the ecological condition of the marine shelf ecosystem in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The assessment method employed is the Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition (PAEC1) and the current assessment has considered to what extent the North Sea and Skagerrak shelf ecosystem deviates from the reference condition2 by evaluating change trajectories.