Yeliz Yilmaz

• Langendijk, G.S; Aubry-Wake, C.; Osman, M.; Gulizia, C.; Attig-Bahar, F.; Behrens, E.; Bertoncini, A.; Hart, N.; Indasi, V.S.; Innocenti, S.; van der Linden, E.C.; Mamnun, N.; Rasouli, K.; Reed, K.A.; Ridder, N.; Rivera, J.; Ruscica, R.; Ukazu, B.U.; Walawender, J.P.; Walker, D.P.; Woodhams, B.J. & Yilmaz, Yeliz A. (2019). Three Ways Forward to Improve Regional Information for Extreme Events: An Early Career Perspective. Frontiers in Environmental Science.  ISSN 2296-665X.  7, s 6 . doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00006
• Yilmaz, Yeliz A.; Sen, Omer Lutfi & Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku (2019). Modeling the hydroclimatic effects of local land use and land cover changes on the water budget in the upper Euphrates – Tigris basin. Journal of Hydrology.  ISSN 0022-1694.  576, s 596- 609 . doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.074 Show summary

  The waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers have always been a vital resource in the water-food-energy nexus of the Middle East region. The currently ongoing Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) in Turkey aims to increase regional prosperity by optimizing the use of these waters for irrigation and hydropower. Since the beginning of the 1990s, the irrigation schemes and water management infrastructures within the scope of the GAP have caused significant land use and land cover (LULC) change in this semi-arid region. We employed a high resolution regional climate model to simulate the effects of irrigation induced LULC changes on the regional water and energy balances. For this purpose, historical simulations were conducted by using three land cover distributions which reflect the increase in irrigation and water surfaces. Our experiment reveals that water loss through evapotranspiration increases significantly with the areal expansion of irrigation. This increase is driven by the change in partitioning of the available energy at the surface between turbulent heat fluxes. On the one hand, a significant reduction in sensible heat flux causes local cooling by around 0.4 °C and 0.8 °C for the current and future irrigation conditions, respectively. On the other hand, the increase in latent heat flux enhances evapotranspiration and consequently atmospheric water vapor concentration. The moistening of a shallower boundary layer triggers the formation of convective clouds, which increases convective precipitation, most notably during the irrigation months. The enhanced water loss through evapotranspiration has potential to significantly alter the water budget of the GAP region. It seems that the water surplus of the headwaters region may not be enough to meet the water deficit of the GAP region in the future if the planned irrigation schemes are carried out to completion.

• Yilmaz, Yeliz; Aalstad, Kristoffer & Sen, Omer L. (2019). Multiple remotely sensed lines of evidence for a depleting seasonal snowpack in the near east. Remote Sensing.  ISSN 2072-4292.  11(5) . doi: 10.3390/rs11050483 Full text in Research Archive. Show summary

  The snow-fed river basins of the Near East region are facing an urgent threat in the form of declining water resources. In this study, we analyzed several remote sensing products (optical, passive microwave, and gravimetric) and outputs of a meteorological reanalysis data set to understand the relationship between the terrestrial water storage anomalies and the mountain snowpack. The results from different satellite retrievals show a clear signal of a depletion of both water storage and the seasonal snowpack in four basins in the region. We find a strong reduction in terrestrial water storage over the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observational period, particularly over the higher elevations. Snow-cover duration estimates from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products point towards negative and significant trends up to one month per decade in the current era. These numbers are a clear indicator of the partial disappearance of the seasonal snow-cover in the region which has been projected to occur by the end of the century. The spatial patterns of changes in the snow-cover duration are positively correlated with both GRACE terrestrial water storage decline and peak snow water equivalent (SWE) depletion from the ERA5 reanalysis. Possible drivers of the snowpack depletion are a significant reduction in the snowfall ratio and an earlier snowmelt. A continued depletion of the montane snowpack in the Near East paints a bleak picture for future water availability in this water-stressed region.

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• Yilmaz, Yeliz A. & Sen, Omer L. (2018). Detecting the effects of irrigation on regional temperature extremes. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-550+PROC.  ISBN 978-0-9973548-3-6.  151 s.

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• Bryn, Anders; Dalen, Thea Grobstok; Finne, Eirik Aasmo; Heiberg, Hanne; Nilsen, Irene Brox; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Snekkenes, Christine; Stordal, Frode; Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Althuizen, Inge; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Bright, Ryan M.; Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe; Geange, Sonya Rita; Pirk, Norbert; Puschmann, Oskar; Tang, Hui; Torma, Michal; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Westermann, Sebastian & Yilmaz, Yeliz (2020). Natur i endring.
• Popp, Andrea; Hall, Caitlyn A. & Yilmaz, Yeliz A. (2020). How to Combat Bullying and Discrimination in the Geosciences. EOS.  ISSN 0096-3941.  101 . doi: 10.1029/2020EO151914
• Yilmaz, Yeliz A.; Aalstad, Kristoffer; Filhol, Simon Vincent P; Stordal, Frode & Tallaksen, Lena M. (2020). Fennoscandian snow cover phenology from MODIS, CLM5, and climate reanalyses.
• Yilmaz, Yeliz A.; Aalstad, Kristoffer; Filhol, Simon Vincent P; Stordal, Frode & Tallaksen, Lena M. (2020). Scandinavian snow cover phenology from MODIS, CLM, and reanalyses.
• Yilmaz, Yeliz A.; Aalstad, Kristoffer; Filhol, Simon Vincent P; Stordal, Frode & Tallaksen, Lena M. (2020). The Representation of the Fennoscandian Snow Cover Phenology in Reanalyses and CLM5 during the MODIS-era. Show summary

  Snow plays an important role in cold regions through its effect on the terrestrial exchange of energy, water, and carbon. Accurately simulating snow processes is therefore important in capturing various climate feedbacks in Earth system models. The representation of the subgrid heterogeneity of snow properties (e.g. coverage, depth, density, albedo) are, in addition to accumulation and snowmelt, major sources of uncertainty in the snow modules of land surface schemes. Using multiple data sources is essential to address these uncertainties and to evaluate overall model performance. Unlike in-situ observations, satellite remote sensing products provide unique representative information at the scale of Earth system models. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites provide a continuous long-term climate record for the last two decades. In this study, two daily snow cover data sets from MODIS (MOD10A1 and MYD10A1) were used to retrieve fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) and several snow cover metrics (e.g. snow cover duration, first and last day of snow) over Fennoscandia for the 2001-2020 water years. We use these retrievals to evaluate the fSCA outputs from multiple reanalyses (ERA5-Land, ERA5, and MERRA-2) and the latest version of the Community Land Model (CLM5) which is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In order to test the accuracy of the MODIS data, we employed Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite retrievals as well as local‐scale measurements around the Finse Eco-Hydrological Observatory (Finse EcHO), a low-alpine site in central Norway. Lastly, we compared the trends in snow cover metrics with terrestrial water storage anomalies obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to better understand the regional water cycle dynamics over this region. This study provides a useful starting point for integrating Earth observations into Earth system modeling in cold regions to help identify and constrain sources of uncertainty. Acknowledgement : This study is conducted under the LATICE strategic research initiative funded by the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Oslo, and the EMERALD (project #294948) funded by the Research Council of Norway.

• Yilmaz, Yeliz; Tallaksen, Lena M. & Stordal, Frode (2020). Hydroclimatological evaluation of CLM5 simulations using multiple data sources for land-atmosphere interaction studies over Scandinavia. Show summary

  Arctic amplification leads to rapid changes in the terrestrial water and energy balances at high northern latitudes. Advances in Earth System Models (ESMs) is improving our understanding of the underlying feedback mechanisms leading to these changes. The representation of the land surface in ESMs is essential to simulate and understand changes at the global and regional scales. The latest version of the land component of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), namely the Community Land Model (CLM5), has received substantial new implementations to help simulate the land surface processes in cold environments. At the same time, the behaviour of offline CLM5 simulations and new observational data sets have not been systematically compared over Scandinavian regions. In this study, we run the CLM5 model at relatively high resolution (0.25 degrees) over Scandinavia (including Svalbard) for 15 years between 2002 and 2016. We evaluate the water and energy budget components of CLM5 using several reanalyses and satellite-based observational data sets. In particular, we use monthly model outputs and compare with the satellite retrievals from GRACE, MODIS, AMSR2, and AMSR-E, and reanalysis data sets from ERA5, GLDAS, and MERRA-2. As an additional data source, we use the local‐scale measurements obtained from the Finse Eco-Hydrological Observatory (Finse EcHO) at 1200 m a.s.l, and the high-Arctic research site at Bayelva near Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Our investigation is focused on several variables including terrestrial water storage, snow water equivalent, turbulent fluxes, net radiation, and skin temperature. The results indicate that the perceived performance of the land surface model (CLM5) depends strongly on the reference observational data set. Regional discrepancies between data sets, particularly for Svalbard, prompts further investigation of the underlying sources of uncertainty. The results of this evaluation provide a valuable source of information for future studies in the region, particularly in the Land-ATmosphere Interactions in Cold Environments (LATICE) project, which focuses on cold region land surface dynamics, integrating across observational systems, laboratory experiments, field, and modeling efforts. Acknowledgement : This study is conducted under the LATICE strategic research initiative funded by the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Oslo, and the project EMERALD (294948) funded by the Research Council of Norway.

• Yilmaz, Yeliz; Tallaksen, Lena M. & Stordal, Frode (2019). Assessment of the water and energy balance simulations of CTSM using satellite-based observations over Scandinavia.

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