Emergent networks

Predicting strain localization and fracture network development

About the project

How can we estimate the timing of the next large earthquake? The ability to estimate when the next large earthquake will occur at a particular location (i.e., Los Angeles) would provide immediate societal and economic benefits.

Plots showing the fracture network characteristics for marble (upper) and granite (lower).
Experimental data used to identify the fracture network characteristics that best predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in recently accepted GRL paper.

Observations of natural, crustal earthquakes, and laboratory earthquakes indicate that precursory processes tend to accelerate in activity leading up to the dynamic, macroscopic, system-scale failure of a system. This project aims to quantitatively describe and characterize these precursory processes that signal the onset of earthquake preparation. Following the characterization of these processes in laboratory experiments, the project aims to predict the timing of laboratory and crustal earthquakes using machine learning.

Four figures showing fracture network characteristics identified via machine learning (fracture orientation, aperture and anisotropy, and distance between fractures).
Fracture network characteristics identified via machine learning. These characteristics constrain which fundamental criteria of fracture mechanics (strain energy density) may indicate the timing of approaching earthquakes.

Following the development of successful machine learning models that predict the timing of earthquakes, the project will examine which characteristics of fracture networks and strain fields provide the greatest predictive power of the timing of earthquakes. The project will then use numerical models to examine how the processes identified at the laboratory scale with fine temporal and spatial resolution may up-scale to the processes operating at the km-scale within natural tectonic systems, such as the San Andreas fault in California.

This project started in September 2020, and has thus far yielded four submitted papers.

Financing

The Research Council of Norway

Cooperation

  • The Njord Center, University of Oslo, Norway
  • University of Southern California, USA
  • L'Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Brest, France
  • Center for Computing in Science Education, University of Oslo, Norway
  • University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Seals of project participants.

 

Publications

  • McBeck, J., Mair, K., & Renard, F. Decrypting healed fault zones: How gouge production reduces the influence of fault roughness. Geophysical Journal International, in press.

  • McBeck, J., Ben-Zion, Y., & Renard, F. How the force and fracture architectures develop within and around healed fault zones during biaxial loading toward macroscopic failure. Journal of Structural Geology, in review.

  • McBeck, J., Aiken, J., Mathiesen, J., Ben-Zion, Y., & Renard, F. (2020) Deformation precursors to catastrophic failure in rocks. Geophysical Research Letters, e2020GL090255

  • McBeck, J., Zhu, W., & Renard, F. The competition between fracture nucleation, propagation and coalescence in the crystalline continental upper crust. Solid Earth, in review.

  • Mathiesen, Joachim; Beck, Jessica Ann Mc; Cordonnier, Benoit; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2024). Deep‐learning analysis of fracture networks leading to system‐size failure in rocks. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Machine Learning and Computation. 1(3). doi: 10.1029/2023JH000103. Full text in Research Archive
  • Xue, Chunqi; McBeck, Jessica Ann; Lu, Hongjun; Yan, Changhao; Zhong, Jianhua & Wu, Jianguang [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2024). Classification of shale lithofacies with minimal data: Application to the early Permian shales in the Ordos Basin, China. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences. ISSN 1367-9120. 259. doi: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2023.105901. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Cordonnier, Benoit; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2023). The Influence of Confining Pressure and Preexisting Damage on Strain Localization in Fluid-Saturated Crystalline Rocks in the Upper Crust. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Solid Earth. ISSN 2169-9313. 128(8). doi: 10.1029/2023JB026987. Full text in Research Archive
  • Madathiparambil, Aldritt Scaria; Tekseth, Kim Robert Bjørk; Mürer, Fredrik Kristoffer; Cordonnier, Benoit; Agofack, Nicolaine & McBeck, Jessica Ann [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2023). Time-Resolved in Situ Imaging of Strain Localization in Draupne Shale under Triaxial Compression. Physical Review Applied. 20(3). doi: 10.1103/PhysRevApplied.20.034046. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Cordonnier, Benoit; Cooke, Michele; Fattaruso, Laura & Renard, Francois (2023). Deformation evolves from shear to extensile in rocks due to energy optimization. Communications Earth & Environment. 4. doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-01023-w. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Cordonnier, Benoit & Renard, Francois (2023). The evolving representative elementary volume size in crystalline and granular rocks under triaxial compression approaching macroscopic failure. Geophysical Journal International. ISSN 0956-540X. 232(3), p. 1898–1913. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggac426. Full text in Research Archive
  • Stappen, Van F. Van; McBeck, Jessica Ann; Cordonnier, Benoit; Pijnenburg, R.P.J.; Renard, Francois & Spiers, C.J. [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2022). 4D Synchrotron X-ray Imaging of Grain Scale Deformation Mechanisms in a Seismogenic Gas Reservoir Sandstone During Axial Compaction. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering. ISSN 0723-2632. 55(8), p. 4697–4715. doi: 10.1007/s00603-022-02842-7. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Ben-Zion, Y.; Zhou, X. & Renard, Francois (2022). Precursory Off-Fault Deformation in Restraining and Releasing Step Overs: Insights From Discrete Element Method Models. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Solid Earth. ISSN 2169-9313. 127(9). doi: 10.1029/2022JB024326. Full text in Research Archive
  • Fattaruso, Laura; Cooke, Michele & McBeck, Jessica Ann (2022). The Influence of Fracture Growth and Coalescence on the Energy Budget Leading to Failure. Frontiers in Earth Science. 10. doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.853030. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Ben-Zion, Y. & Renard, Francois (2022). Predicting fault reactivation and macroscopic failure in discrete element method simulations of restraining and releasing step overs. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. ISSN 0012-821X. 593. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117667. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2022). Volumetric and shear strain localization throughout triaxial compression experiments on rocks. Tectonophysics. ISSN 0040-1951. 822. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229181. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann & Renard, Francois (2022). Deriving three-dimensional properties of fracture networks from two-dimensional observations in rocks approaching failure under triaxial compression: Implications for fluid flow. Water Resources Research. ISSN 0043-1397. 58(11). doi: 10.1029/2022WR032783. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann (2022). Predicting the Timing of Catastrophic Failure During Triaxial Compression: Insights from Discrete Element Method Simulations. Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH). ISSN 0033-4553. 179, p. 3625–3645. doi: 10.1007/s00024-022-03151-4. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2021). How the force and fracture architectures develop within and around healed fault zones during biaxial loading toward macroscopic failure. Journal of Structural Geology. ISSN 0191-8141. 147. doi: 10.1016/j.jsg.2021.104329. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Mair, Karen & Renard, Francois Marie Paul L (2021). Decrypting healed fault zones: How gouge production reduces the influence of fault roughness. Geophysical Journal International. ISSN 0956-540X. 225(2), p. 759–774. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggab003. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Aiken, John; Cordonnier, B.; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2021). Predicting Fracture Network Development in Crystalline Rocks. Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH). ISSN 0033-4553. 179, p. 275–299. doi: 10.1007/s00024-021-02908-7. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Zhou, Xiaoyu & Renard, François (2021). The influence of preexisting host rock damage on fault network localization. Journal of Structural Geology. ISSN 0191-8141. 153. doi: 10.1016/j.jsg.2021.104471. Full text in Research Archive
  • Kandula, Neelima; McBeck, Jessica Ann; Cordonnier, Benoît; Weiss, Jérôme; Dysthe, Dag Kristian & Renard, François (2021). Synchrotron 4D X-Ray Imaging Reveals Strain Localization at the Onset of System-Size Failure in Porous Reservoir Rocks. Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH). ISSN 0033-4553. 179, p. 325–350. doi: 10.1007/s00024-021-02902-z. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2021). Fracture Network Localization Preceding Catastrophic Failure in Triaxial Compression Experiments on Rocks. Frontiers in Earth Science. 9. doi: 10.3389/feart.2021.778811. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Cordonnier, B. & Renard, F. (2021). The influence of spatial resolution and noise on fracture network properties calculated from X-ray microtomography data. International Journal of Rock Mechanics And Mining Sciences. ISSN 1365-1609. 147. doi: 10.1016/j.ijrmms.2021.104922. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Zhu, Wenlu & Renard, Francois (2021). The competition between fracture nucleation, propagation and coalescence in crystalline rock. Solid Earth (SE). ISSN 1869-9510. 12(2), p. 375–387. doi: 10.5194/se-12-375-2021. Full text in Research Archive
  • Renard, Francois; Kandula, Neelima; McBeck, Jessica Ann & Cordonnier, Benoit (2020). Creep Burst Coincident With Faulting in Marble Observed in 4-D Synchrotron X-Ray Imaging Triaxial Compression Experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Solid Earth. ISSN 2169-9313. 125. doi: 10.1029/2020JB020354. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Aiken, John Mark; Mathiesen, Joachim; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2020). Deformation precursors to catastrophic failure in rocks. Geophysical Research Letters. ISSN 0094-8276. 47(24). doi: 10.1029/2020GL090255. Full text in Research Archive
  • McBeck, Jessica Ann; Aiken, John Mark; Ben-Zion, Yehuda & Renard, Francois (2020). Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. ISSN 0012-821X. 543. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116344. Full text in Research Archive

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Published Apr. 28, 2021 2:45 PM - Last modified May 27, 2025 10:43 AM

Contact

Jessica Ann McBeck, researcher

 

Participants

Detailed list of participants