Nils Chr. Stenseth

• Kibaja, Mohamed Julius; Ndimuligo, Sood Athumani; Moore, Jim; Davenport, Tim R.B.; Nahonyo, Cuthbert L. & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2026). An arboreal and folivorous monkey, the endangered ashy red colobus (Piliocolobus tephrosceles) exists across dry deciduous Savanna woodland in Tanzania. Global Ecology and Conservation. 69. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2026.e04323. Full text in Research Archive
• Zhou, Youbing; Cui, Jifa; Chen, Wenwen; Wu, Nan; Newman, Chris & Li, Juncheng [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2026). Compound Ecoclimatic Events: The Long-Term Recovery of Conservation-Priority Mammals After an Extreme Ice Storm Event Was Promoted by the Alleviation of Poaching. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013. 32(9). doi: 10.1111/gcb.71084. Full text in Research Archive
• Wei, Maohong; Lu, Xueqiang; Li, Hongyuan; Zhu, Lin; Zhu, Jiyou & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2026). Water availability regulates abrupt shifts in global terrestrial vegetation productivity by reducing resilience. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. ISSN 0962-8452. 293(2068), p. 1–12. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2025.3118. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abrupt shifts in vegetation productivity induced by environmental change profoundly affect ecosystem functions and services, such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity maintenance and climate regulation, yet their long-term global patterns and underlying drivers remain insufficiently understood. In this study, abrupt shifts in vegetation productivity were identified using two independent long-term satellite datasets, and early warning signals were assessed through ecosystem resilience. The main drivers of resilience decline were further examined across land-cover, climate and human-activity dimensions. The results showed that negative abrupt shifts were predominantly concentrated in high northern latitudes and equatorial regions, and that both negative and positive abrupt shifts displayed distinct increasing trends after 2002. A sharp decline in ecosystem resilience was also detected during the 4 years preceding abrupt shifts. Changes in water availability were identified as the primary factor contributing to the reduced resilience of global ecosystems, as evidenced by the driver trajectory, generalized additive models and convergent cross-mapping methods. This study provides insight into the pervasive occurrence of abrupt shifts in vegetation productivity and the discernible impact of climate change. When projecting vegetation dynamics under future climate change, it is essential to consider the significant uncertainties associated with abrupt shifts.

• Tefera, Eskinder Belay; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Alemu, Tibebu; Gemeda, Dessalegn Obsi & Gutema, Tariku Mekonnen (2026). Mutualistic human-bird interactions: Honeyguides and vultures’ unique symbioses with indigenous communities in Southwestern Ethiopia. European Journal of Wildlife Research. ISSN 1612-4642. 72(4), p. 1–14. doi: 10.1007/s10344-026-02117-4. Full text in Research Archive
• Cristofari, Robin; Davis, Leyla R.; Bardon, Gaël; Fernandes, Flávia A. Nitta; Figueroa, Maria Elena & Franzenburg, Sören [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2026). Lifestyle change accelerates epigenetic ageing in King penguins. Nature Communications. 17. doi: 10.1038/s41467-026-70527-8. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  A growing body of evidence supports the role of nutrient sensing and metabolism pathways in regulating ageing rate and healthspan, but the diversity of human lifestyles challenges our ability to identify the mechanisms of this age acceleration. Here, we examine how the transition of wild King penguins to zoo husbandry can closely mimic the shift to a Western lifestyle in humans, and shed light on conserved epigenetic changes in responses to sedentary conditions. We show that, just like modern humans, zoo-housed male King penguins experience an extended lifespan, but this comes at the cost of accelerated epigenetic ageing throughout life. This accelerated ageing is associated with differential methylation in key growth and maintenance pathways, including the mTOR and PI3K/Akt networks. Our results demonstrate the conserved link between lifestyle and age acceleration. Such evolutionary evidence may help us to improve risk detection and, ultimately, therapeutics for lifestyle-induced age acceleration in humans.

• Folk, Alexius Werner Thomas; Heino, Mikko Petteri; Ebert, Dieter; Nilsen, Frank; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Mennerat, Adele (2026). Parasites perform poorly at high host densities: an experimental test in the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. ISSN 0962-8452. 293(2062). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2025.1782. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The link between host density and parasite population size is well-established. However, while high host density facilitates parasite transmission, it may negatively impact parasites through more intense competition and/or more intense host immune defence. We assessed the performance of individually tagged female salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), an ectoparasite of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), under experimental low and high host density conditions, the latter mimicking salmon aquaculture conditions. Lice at high density exhibit greater pre-reproductive mortality, reduced growth, delayed maturation, smaller adult sizes and lower fecundity. Adult size in salmon lice correlates negatively with age at maturity and positively with early fecundity, lifetime fecundity and lifespan. Thus, lice in high-density host populations perform poorly across all life-history traits, probably owing to stronger immune responses of hosts initially exposed to higher parasite doses. This study suggests density-dependent regulation of parasites in intensive agriculture, where hosts are farmed at high densities. Our results further suggest that salmon lice in aquaculture may be selected for greater resistance to host immune defence. As host populations now consist overwhelmingly of farmed fish, continued research is essential to understand the implications for wild salmonids, which are frequently infected by lice originating from farms.

• Ahmad, Zubair; Crisci, Serena; Sun, Bin; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Giannino, Francesco (2026). Can time-dependent optimal interventions reduce Salmonella spread? A multi-pathway ODE model using real data from EU. Computational biology and chemistry. ISSN 1476-9271. 123. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiolchem.2026.108968. Full text in Research Archive
• Fell, Henry Gillies; Bailey, Joseph; Rasoamalala, Fanohinjanaharinirina; Ramasindrazana, Beza; Shipley, Luke & Jones, Matthew [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2026). Integrating microclimate to understand vector development and disease patterns: challenges and lessons from plague in Madagascar's Central Highlands. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. ISSN 0962-8452. 293(2067). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2025.2496. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Plague, the zoonotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, shows seasonal infection patterns across the Central Highlands of Madagascar. The disease persists within a complex ecological network involving host and vector species, all influenced by climate. Due to this complexity, links between climate, Y. pestis ecology and human infection remain incomplete. This study developed microclimate-based models to assess climatic impacts on growth cycles of plague vectors Xenopsylla cheopis and Synopsyllus fonquerniei. Using microclimatic modelling, the vector development index (VDI) was calculated to estimate annual developmental phases for each flea species. The uncorrected VDI suggested that development rates were highly variable for X. cheopis compared to S. fonquerniei, which shows greater temporal consistency. Elevated VDI slopes, representing an increased rate of vector development, correlated with plague cases across 61.8–14.7% of areas, implying possible climatic influence on vector-driven disease cycles. However, these associations were not maintained after adjusting modelled temperatures using limited field validation. These findings highlight the complex interactions between climate, vector dynamics and Y. pestis transmission, and emphasize the need for further investigation into burrow microclimates and their seasonal epidemiological roles.

• Kausrud, Kyrre & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2026). Virulence in the Anthropocene: How the evolutionary drivers of disease are changed by human ecological impacts. In Støen, Mariel Cristina; Jakobsen, Jostein & Rutt, Rebecca Leigh (Ed.), One Health, Ecology, and the Politics of Emerging Infectious Diseases. Routledge. ISSN 9781003558217. p. 156–175. doi: 10.4324/9781003558217-10. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Humans have been exchanging microbes and viruses with other animal species and our environment throughout our evolutionary history, yet we lack a full understanding of what drives some of these interactions to be virulent, occasionally leading to epidemics or pandemics. Here we give an overview of what we know, suspect, and do not know about the fundamental drivers of disease emergence from a bird’s eye evolutionary perspective, in light of ecology and recent human history. We see that infectious diseases emerge as a property of the interaction between the host, the environment, and the pathogen and that models of disease evolution need to take this interaction into account in the hope of achieving predictive power. That predictive power seems increasingly urgent, as over a century of dramatic progress in the ongoing battle against infectious diseases faces off against biodiversity loss, concentration of the vast majority of mammal biomass into fewer species with less genetic diversity, higher long distance contact rates, increasing environmental variance from climate change, and interactions with pollutants promoting antimicrobial resistance. The already-skewed distribution of health care for those humans working under potentially increasing economic instability would be likely to create increasing risk for emerging diseases, both in humans and livestock. Our current situation is in many ways different from historical precedents in scope and scale, underlining the urgent need to build on current knowledge of how our food chain shapes our diseases – and vice versa.

• Bardon, Gaël; Barracho, Téo; Durant, Joël M.; Lecomte, Nicolas; Maho, Yvon Le & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2026). Multiannual environmental forcing shapes breeding phenology and success in a sub-Antarctic seabird. Science Advances. 12(11). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aea6342. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Climate-driven phenological mismatches threaten avian reproduction by disrupting food availability during critical breeding stages. In marine ecosystems, time lags between environmental changes and their effects on food webs are challenging to model, yet they can have a profound impact on reproduction at higher trophic levels. We disentangle how oceanic and climatic variability influence the breeding phenology and success of a major predator species in the Southern Ocean, drawing on 24 years of data from 17,000 marked king penguins. We document a 19-day advancement in breeding phenology, alongside increased breeding success (44% in 2000 and 62% in 2023). A sliding-window analysis reveals that sea temperature and primary production in key foraging zones predict both phenology and breeding success, with lags up to several weeks and 2 years, respectively. The amplitude of their recent response, as well as their dependence on multiyear environmental conditions, underscores a potential vulnerability in a context of decreasing environment predictability. However, so far, king penguins appear to be keeping pace with environmental changes and demonstrate a remarkable resilience and important flexibility in the face of variable oceanographic conditions.

• Peri, Marcos Llope; Blenckner, Thorsten; Vasilakopoulos, Paraskevas; McGinty, Niall; Lynam, Christopher P. & Hélaouët, Pierre [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2026). Stress and resilience in northern European marine ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 123(8), p. 1–7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2527939123. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Marine ecosystems are facing multiple pressures from human activities, such as fishing and nutrient inputs from farming and agriculture, compounded by the global effects of climate change. As a result, the ecosystem services that societies depend on are at risk from the cumulative impact of these pressures. To better understand how different ecosystems respond, it is essential to assess their resilience. While predicting ecosystem resilience remains challenging, significant progress has been made in developing methods to measure it. In this study, we assessed resilience in four northern European marine ecosystems: the Icelandic Waters, the Barents Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea, spanning 3 to 5 decades. “Folded stability landscapes” were constructed for the Baltic and North Sea. This region provides a unique setting, with a south-north gradient from temperate to subarctic environments and a southeast-northwest gradient from open to semienclosed topographies. The Icelandic Waters and Barents Sea evolved relatively continuously, while the Baltic Sea and North Sea underwent more drastic changes. By comparing results across these gradients, we explore the role of isolation, level of pressures, and food web complexity in shaping resilience patterns and discuss the implications for managing resilient marine ecosystems in the future.

• Friant, Sagan; Mistrick, Janine; Luis, Angela D.; Harden, Christina; Simons, David & Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2025). Reducing the threats of rodent-borne zoonoses requires an understanding and leveraging of three key pillars: disease ecology, synanthropy, and rodentation. The Lancet Planetary Health. 9. doi: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101300. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Rodents have co-existed with humans for centuries, and frequently exchange pathogens. Historically, rodent-driven plague outbreaks scoured the Old World, resulting in substantial human mortality. Although such pandemics have not occurred for centuries, serious threats from rodent-borne infections, such as the global emergence of mpox, still exist. Moreover, endemic and emerging rodent infections continue to cause substantial human morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Efforts by the medical community to control rodent-borne zoonoses primarily focus on treating or preventing symptoms in humans using biomedical interventions (eg, vaccination). Such approaches are geared towards preparedness and response but are insufficient for prevention. In this Personal View, we identify three key pillars that drive rodent-borne zoonotic spillover: ecology of rodent infections; use of human habitation by rodents (synanthropy); and the influence of humans on the ecological proliferation of rodents in our landscape (rodentation). The challenge is to leverage these pillars as entry points for interventions, to prevent spillover and reduce disease burden. Given shortcomings of rodent culling, we advocate for integrated countermeasures that are socially and ecologically grounded, apply systems thinking, and leverage emerging technologies to prevent spillover driven by persistent human–rodent interactions and global change.

• Disasa, Behailu Etana; Fashing, Peter J.; Meshesha, Anagaw Atickem; Bekele, Afework & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2025). Plasticity in activity patterns of ungulates under the influence of shade coffee agricultural intensification in Ethiopia. Global Ecology and Conservation. 62. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03808. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  A better understanding of mammalian activity patterns is essential for assessing responses to anthropogenic disturbances. Several ungulates play a crucial role in maintaining forest functions and are vulnerable to disturbances caused by humans. It is imperative to understand how this functional group reacts to the intensification of coffee forests. To address this issue, we investigated diel activity patterns and behavioral responses of ungulates in relation to the increasing intensity of coffee forest management systems (semi-forests, semi-plantations, and plantations) and nearby natural forests in the Belete-Gera National Forest Priority Area, southwest Ethiopia. We surveyed mammals using motion-detecting infrared camera traps at 90 stations (mean = 22.5 per forest; SD ± 5.5) for a total of 4142 cumulative camera days. In order to develop activity overlap plots, we fitted kernel density functions of activity times for six species of ungulates separately in managed coffee forests and compared to those in natural forests. Further, we compared behavioral response of ungulates using Non-metric multidimensional scaling. Our findings showed that with increasing intensity of coffee forest management, ungulate diel activity patterns shift primarily to crepuscular and nocturnal for bushbucks, giant forest hogs, and bushpigs, but not for bush duikers, warthogs and buffaloes. It is possible that this response is a result of forced inactivity during daylight hours that occurs in intensified coffee habitats where humans often disturb the environment. In addition, the behavioral responses showed that there was a distinct clustering of feeding, resting, and moving behavior patterns in the plantation coffee habitat. Thus, as the management intensity of shade coffee increases, the habitat quality for some ungulates decreases. It is essential to develop species-specific requirements in conservation measures to mitigate conflict with humans and propose effective management strategies. Additionally, humans should limit their movement in coffee forest habitats at night, in the early morning, and in the late afternoon to ensure coexistence with resident ungulates.

• An, Jiafu; Wang, Tenghui; Chen, Bin; Gong, Peng; Lin, Chen & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2025). Impact of women’s political empowerment through gender quotas on improved drinking water access in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 122(30). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2511977122. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Improved drinking water availability, as a fundamental human right, is essential for human health and well-being. In contrast, there are still billions of people lacking the access. We empirically test the impacts of women’s political representation on improved drinking water availability across Africa, leveraging the adoption of the reserved seat quota program. We find that an average 4.71 percentage point increase in improved drinking water, with a notable 12.25 percentage point increase in countries where the quota exceeds 20% due to an increase in the proportion of women in parliaments and spillover effects on women’s political and social rights. Overall, these findings suggest that reserved seats for women are effective for coping with improved water access issues in Africa.

• Ma, Jian; Xu, Lei; Han, Qian; Gao, Jing; Yuan, Huihui & Dong, Kaixing [Show all 18 contributors for this article] (2025). The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions. PNAS Nexus. 4(11). doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf350. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Dengue fever, influenced by climate dynamics and human mobility in nonendemic regions, remains poorly understood. We assessed the effects of large-scale climate features on domestic dengue outbreaks using data from China (2013–2021) and projections for 2023–2028, incorporating climate, human mobility, and environmental factors. A significant positive correlation (r = 0.89, P < 0.01) was found between domestic dengue incidence and overseas imported cases. Significant associations were also noted with domestic (F2.96, 25.78 = 518.03, P < 0.01) and international human mobility (F2.77, 25.78 = 66.84, P < 0.01), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index (F2.98, 25.78 = 522.84), and vectorial capacity (F2.92, 25.78 = 338.74, P < 0.01). IOD is the most influential climate feature, with a trend of intensification over time. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm incorporating IOD (r2 = 0.56) predicted outbreaks in 2025, 2026, and 2028. Our findings reveal that large-scale climate phenomenon, notably the IOD, and human mobility significantly influence dengue domestic outbreaks in China through a “dislocated impact.”

• Feng, Jianfeng; Wan, Xuhao; Wang, Ruyue; Li, Shengpeng; Wei, Maohong & Dakos, Vasilis [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2025). Mediating role of food web structure in linking diversity to multidimensional stability: Evidence from global marine ecosystems. Science Advances. 11(41). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adv3841. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The diversity-stability relationship persists as a central ecological debate, as existing work primarily examines direct diversity and structural drivers, while empirical evidence clarifying how direct and structure-mediated pathways jointly shape ecosystem multistability remains limited. Here, we analyzed 217 global marine food webs, quantifying structural properties and multidimensional stability to evaluate how diversity and structure jointly influence stability. Our analyses reveal that diversity is consistently linked to stability through dual pathways: positively associated with resistance and resilience via indirect structural mediation, yet negatively correlated with local stability unless interaction strength is accounted for. Critically, omitting structural mediation yields a net negative diversity-stability correlation, whereas integrating food web structure uncovers context-dependent positive relationships, underscoring structural metrics as pivotal explanatory variables. Our findings reconcile the diversity-stability debate by showing that the food web structure mediates context-dependent stability outcomes—integrating direct and indirect pathways resolves contradictions and advances actionable metrics for conservation strategies resilient to environmental changes.

• Helmerson, Cecilia; Durant, Joël; Hoff, Siv Nam Khang; Brieuc, Marine Servane Ono; Berg, Paul Ragnar & Jorde, Per Erik [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2025). A century of anthropogenic perturbations impact genomic signatures of the iconic migratory Atlantic cod. Science Advances. 11(31). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adp3342. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Anthropogenic stressors have led to marked ecosystem perturbations, including population declines and shifts in habitat range for key marine fish species. Understanding how these changes affect genome-wide characteristics, causing long-term evolutionary responses, is still in its infancy. Genome-wide retrospective assessment of the iconic migratory Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) from the Barents Sea, unraveled varying degree of admixture with the nonmigratory coastal ecotype throughout the 20th century, and intriguingly more intensified during recent decades. These genomic changes were supported by an increased number of individuals displaying the heterozygous state of the chromosomal inversion coupled to migratory behavior in Atlantic cod. Ecological models and genome-wide scans identified that some of the observed frequency shifts, coupled to neural development, metabolic, and growth regulation, covaried with intensified fisheries, reduced generation time, and ocean warming. Our results demonstrate how anthropogenic perturbations impact the dynamics between two well-known ecotypes of Atlantic cod and thus, their genomic signatures, with potential implications for future management programs.

• Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Edwards, Scott; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Bayarsaikhan, Jamsranjav & Altangerel, Dondog [Show all 26 contributors for this article] (2025). Global natural history infrastructure requires international solidarity, support, and investment in local capacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 122(6). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2411232122. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Amid global challenges like climate change, extinctions, and disease epidemics, science and society require nuanced, international solutions that are grounded in robust, interdisciplinary perspectives and datasets that span deep time. Natural history collections, from modern biological specimens to the archaeological and fossil records, are crucial tools for understanding cultural and biological processes that shape our modern world. At the same time, natural history collections in low and middle-income countries are at-risk and underresourced, imperiling efforts to build the infrastructure and scientific capacity necessary to tackle critical challenges. The case of Mongolia exemplifies the unique challenges of preserving natural history collections in a country with limited financial resources under the thumb of scientific colonialism. Specifically, the lack of biorepository infrastructure throughout Mongolia stymies efforts to study or respond to large-scale environmental changes of the modern era. Investment in museum capacity and training to develop locally-accessible collections that characterize natural communities over time and space must be a key priority for a future where understanding climate scenarios, predicting, and responding to zoonotic disease, making informed conservation choices, or adapting to agricultural challenges, will be all but impossible without relevant and accessible collections.

• Liu, Ziyan; Brady, Oliver J.; Wang, Guangze; Li, Yapin; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Dye, Christopher [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2025). Long term monitoring and adaptive strategies: lessons from Hainan's malaria elimination and prevention efforts. The BMJ. 389, p. 1–5. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080657. Full text in Research Archive
• Kufa, Chala Adugna; Bekele, Afework; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha; Chala, Desalegn; Alemu, Diress Tsegaye & Ergon, Torbjørn [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2025). Mapping suitable habitat and Anthropocene refugia for Ethiopian Guerezas: Insights for their conservation. Global Ecology and Conservation. 59. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03547. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ethiopia is home to two subspecies of Colobus guereza, C. g. guereza and C. g. gallarum. Whereas C. g. guereza is listed as Least Concern by IUCN, the conservation status of C. g. gallarum is unclear, but according to a recent assessment, it will most likely be listed as Vulnerable, because of habitat loss due to agricultural expansion. We used climate data to model the habitat suitability for both taxa in a comparative study to identify suitable habitats within and outside of protected areas that may serve as Anthropocene refugia. Our ensemble models estimated 168,731 km2 as climatically suitable habitat for C. g. guereza and 69,542 km2 for C. g. gallarum with an overlap between the two taxa of 17.2 %. Areas that qualified as refugia, i.e., areas covered by forest, were 47,101 km2 (only 27.9 % of the total suitable habitat) and 8430 km2 (12.1 % of the suitable habitat) for C. g. guereza and C. g. gallarum, respectively. Of these, 39.8 % (C. g. guereza) and 53.7 % (C. g. gallarum) are within Ethiopia’s current protected area network. Given that potential Anthropocene refugia are found only partly within protected areas, conservation management should include this information when developing conservation strategies for both taxa. As the majority of suitable habitats for the two colobus taxa exist in non-forested regions, afforestation in these areas would be highly beneficial and is strongly recommended.

• Ma, Xixian; Lu, Yan; Stoneking, Mark; Xu, Shuhua & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2025). Neanderthal adaptive introgression shaped LCT enhancer region diversity without linking to lactase persistence in East Asian populations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 122(11). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2404393122. Full text in Research Archive
• Muratore, Daniel; Gilbert, Naomi E.; LeCleir, Gary R.; Wilhelm, Steven W.; Weitz, Joshua S. & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2025). Diel partitioning in microbial phosphorus acquisition in the Sargasso Sea. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 122(11). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2410268122. Full text in Research Archive
• Parany, Mamionah Noro Jully; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Rasoamalala, Fanohinjanaharinirina; Rahelinirina, Soanandrasana; Rahajandraibe, Soloandry & Andrianaivoarimanana, Voahangy [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2025). Plague in Small Mammals From an Endemic Focus of the Malagasy Central Highlands: A Longitudinal Survey With a Special Reference on Black Rats (Rattus rattus). Integrative Zoology. ISSN 1749-4869. 21(1), p. 37–47. doi: 10.1111/1749-4877.12944. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Plague, a zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis, remains a major public health threat in several parts of the world, including Madagascar. Factors underlying long-term persistence and emergence of the pathogen remain poorly understood. We implemented a longitudinal survey to provide insights into plague reservoir ecology within an endemic focus. Six trapping sessions (TS) were conducted in six different localities of the Ankazobe district from 2018 to 2020 in order to monitor small mammal communities. A total of 2762 individuals composed of six species (Rattus rattus, Rattus norvegicus, Mus musculus, Setifer setosus, Suncus murinus and Tenrec ecaudatus) were caught over the six successive TS. R. rattus represented 88% of all captures, with the highest relative abundances observed during the dry season (June to August 2019). None of the micromammals tested positive for the presence of Y. pestis, neither with qPCR nor bacterial culture. However, 11 seropositive individuals (6 R. rattus, 2 M. musculus and 3 S. murinus) were retrieved following ELISA, thus leading to a global seroprevalence of 0.4%. Our study highlighted the significant influence of climatic data on the seasonal variations of R. rattus abundance and suggest that black rat control should be conducted before the dry season, that is, during high reproduction period of rats, in order to reduce the number of reproducing animals and prevent subsequent increase in abundance. As three S. murinus and two M. musculus plague seropositive were identified in the present study, their potential role in plague eco-epidemiology in Madagascar should be explored further.

• Eilersen, Andreas; Bjørnstad, Ottar Nordal; Li, Ruiyun; Schreiber, Sebastian J.; Pei, Zeyuan & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2025). Epidemic evolutionarily stable strategies within an age-structured host population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 122(12), p. 1–7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2418170122. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  To understand infectious disease dynamics, we need to understand the inextricably intertwined nature of the ecology and evolution of pathogens and hosts. Epidemiological dynamics of many infectious diseases have highlighted the importance of considering the demographics of the societies in which they spread, particularly with respect to age structure. In addition, the waves of the recent COVID-19 pandemic driven by variant replacements at an unprecedented speed show that it is vital to consider the evolutionary aspects. The classic trade-off theory of virulence addresses aspects of pathogen evolution, but here we explore in more detail the possibility of society-specific evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) during an unfolding pandemic. Theory posits the existence under some conditions of an ESS representing the evolutionary endpoint of change. By using a demographically realistic model incorporating infection rates that vary with age, we outline which evolutionary scenarios are plausible. Focusing on the rate of infection and duration of infectivity, we ask whether an ESS exists, what characterizes it, and as a result which long-term public-health consequences may be expected. We demonstrate that the ESS of an evolving pathogen depends upon the background age-dependent frailty and mortality rates. Our findings shed important light on the plausible long-term trajectories of highly evolvable novel pathogens.

• Trucchi, Emiliano; Massa, Piergiorgio; Giannelli, Francesco; Latrille, Thibault; Gargano, Marco & Fernandes, Flavia A. Nitta [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2025). High Gene Expression Predicts Extremely Low Segregation of Deleterious Mutations in Large Penguin Populations. Molecular Biology and Evolution (MBE). ISSN 0737-4038. 42(6). doi: 10.1093/molbev/msaf146. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Purifying selection is the most pervasive type of selection, as it constantly removes deleterious mutations arising in populations, directly scaling with population size. Highly expressed genes appear to accumulate fewer nonsynonymous mutations between divergent species' lineages (known as E–R anticorrelation), pointing toward gene expression as an additional component modulating the selection coefficient of protein-coding mutations. However, estimates of the effect of gene expression on segregating deleterious variants in natural populations are scarce, as is an understanding of the relative contribution of population size and gene expression to purifying selection. Here, we analyze genomic and transcriptomic data from two natural populations of closely related sister species with different demographic histories, the Emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) and the King penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), and show that purifying selection at the population level depends on gene expression rate, resulting in very high selection coefficients at highly expressed genes. Leveraging realistic forward simulations, we estimate that the top 10% of the most highly expressed genes in a genome experience a selection pressure corresponding to an average selection coefficient of −0.1, which decreases to a selection coefficient of −0.01 for the top 50%. Gene expression rate can be regarded as a fundamental parameter of protein evolution in natural populations, maintaining selection effective even at small population size. We suggest gene expression could be considered as a major component of gene-specific selection coefficients, which are notoriously difficult to derive in nonmodel species under real-world conditions.

• Liao, Yilan; Zhao, Tong; Du, Wei; Wang, Dayan; Peng, Zhibin & Xue, Shan [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2025). How virus migration and meteorological elements shape the seasonality of influenza a/H3N2: A case study in China. One Health. ISSN 2352-7714. 20. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101037. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Recent global influenza resurgences, escalating to pandemics, emphasize the urgency for effective vaccinations. Despite their efficacy, vaccines offer limited protection against A/H3N2 variants. Thus, elucidating the spatial patterns and underlying drivers of A/H3N2 seasonality is critical for its management. However, the mechanisms governing this seasonality are not fully understood. The study conducted a collaborative and interdisciplinary analysis of influenza A/H3N2 epidemiology in China from 2012 to 2018, utilizing national influenza surveillance data, viral gene sequence data, and meteorological information. We initially examined the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza A/H3N2 across different temperate zones in China. Subsequently, we employed Bayesian “SkyGrid” reconstruction analysis to gain insights into the population dynamics of the influenza A/H3N2 virus within China's temperature zones. Additionally, we utilized generalized additive models (GAM) to assess the influence of meteorological factors on the seasonal prevalence of influenza A/H3N2. Our analysis of China's national influenza data revealed distinct seasonal patterns for A/H3N2: winter epidemics prevailed in temperate zones, while summer and autumn outbreaks occurred in subtropical and tropical areas. The seasonality of influenza A/H3N2 across China's diverse climatic zones is shaped by the interplay of virus migration and meteorological factors. Virus migration introduced new variant populations during seasonal epidemics of influenza A/H3N2 to different temperature zones in China, thereby seeding subsequent seasonal outbreaks. Our findings also indicate that meteorological elements trigger influenza A/H3N2 activity following virus migration. Moreover, the spatial variations in influenza A/H3N2 seasonality in China can be attributed to specific temperature thresholds, approximately 1 °C and 24 °C. These thresholds could serve as potential indicators for A/H3N2 prevalence. This insight is invaluable for tailoring region-specific prevention and control strategies in China and other regions with similar environmental conditions.

• Disasa, Behailu Etana; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha; Fashing, Peter; Alemu, Diress Tsegaye; Beenhouwer, Matthias De & Lens, Luc [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2024). Mammalian community responses in relation to anthropogenic disturbances and resource gradients in the shade coffee forest ecosystem of Southwestern Ethiopia. Global Ecology and Conservation. 53. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e02991. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Understanding the effects of variation in resource availability and habitat disturbance on the ecology of mammals is vital for successful conservation management. In this study, we examined how human disturbances, resource availability and elevation gradients influence mammal assemblages in both managed coffee forest and natural forest of the Belete-Gera National Forest Priority Area, southwestern Ethiopia. We surveyed mammals using motion-detecting infrared camera traps in 90 locations for a total of 4142 camera days. We measured distance from main roads and settlements as disturbance factors, and distance from water sources, key grazing sites, and forest edges and woody plant diversity as resource variables. We assessed the mammal assemblages in coffee forest and natural forests using generalized linear models. Further, we used linear modelling to compare the relationships of mammal detection rates by feeding guilds and body size to resource variables. In total, we recorded 8815 videos identifying 23 different mammal species. The mammal assemblages in coffee forests were negatively associated with increasing distances from key grazing sites, water sources, and elevation. In contrast, the association with increasing distance from the road and woody plant diversity was positive. In addition, herbivores and large (25–200 kg) and very large (≥200 kg) mammals, were all negatively associated with increasing distance from the natural forest edges. With the conversion of natural forest to coffee forest and the intensification of coffee forest management, sustainable management of key grazing sites, water sources, and diverse woody plant species will be essential to the conservation of mammals. In addition, to ensure mammal conservation, adjacent natural forests around coffee forests should also be protected.

• Mongillo, J.; Zedda, N.; Rinaldo, N.; Bellini, T.; Manfrinato, M.C. & Du, Z. [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2024). Differential pathogenicity and lethality of bubonic plague (1720–1945) by sex, age and place. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. ISSN 0962-8452. 291(2027). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2024.0724. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  COVID-19 brought back to the attention of the scientific community that males are more susceptible to infectious diseases. What is clear for other infections—that sex and gender differences influence both risk of infection and mortality—is not yet fully elucidated for plague, particularly bubonic plague, although this knowledge can help find specific defences against a disease for which a vaccine is not yet available. To address this question, we analysed data on plague from hospitals in different parts of the world since the early eighteenth century, which provide demographic information on individual patients, diagnosis and course of the disease in the pre-antibiotic era. Assuming that the two sexes were equally represented, we observe a worldwide prevalence of male cases hospitalized at any age, a result which seems better explained by gender-biased (thus cultural) behaviours than biological sex-related factors. Conversely, case fatality rates differ among countries and geographic macro-areas, while globally, lethality appears slightly prevalent in young females and older adults (regardless of sex). Logistic regression models confirm that the main risk factor for bubonic plague death was the geographical location of the cases and being older than 50 years, whereas sex only showcased a slight trend.

• Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Osborn, Timothy J. & Shishov, Vladimir [Show all 18 contributors for this article] (2024). Persistent humid climate favored the Qin and Western Han Dynasties in China around 2,200 y ago. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 122(1). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2415294121. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Qin and Western Han dynasties (221 BCE to 24 CE) represent an era of societal prosperity in China. However, due to a lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records it is still unclear whether the agricultural boost documented for this period was associated with more favorable climatic conditions. Here, multiparameter analysis of annually resolved tree-ring records and process-based physiological modeling provide evidence of stable and consistently humid climatic conditions during 270 to 77 BCE in northern China. Precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon region during the Qin–Western Han Dynasties was ~18 to 34% higher compared to present-day conditions. In shifting agricultural and pastoral boundaries ~60 to 100 km northwestward, possibility up to 200 km at times, persistently wetter conditions arguably increased food production, contributing to the socioeconomic prosperity around 2,200 y ago. A gradual wetting trend in the western part of arid northwestern China since the 1980s resembles the historical climate analogue, suggesting that similar benefits for regional environmental and agricultural systems may reoccur under current climate change, at least in the near term.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Dong, Kaixing; Cui, Yujun; Slavin, Philip; Xu, Lei & Yang, Ruifu [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2024). The Ecology of Plague. In Atshabar, Bakyt B.; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Fair, Jeanne M. (Ed.), Plague: The Ecology of Natural Foci. Springer Nature. ISSN 9783031588303. p. 119–138. Full text in Research Archive
• Bokma, Folmer; Tsuboi, Masahito & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2024). Brain-body coevolution in incipient versus established primate species—evaluating Simpson’s “most important distinction”. Evolution. ISSN 0014-3820. 79(2), p. 319–323. doi: 10.1093/evolut/qpae167. Full text in Research Archive
• Aticho, Abebayehu; Beyene, Abebe; Zelelew, Shimelis Aynalem; Puok, Changkuoth; Gosler, Andrew G. & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2024). Birds as sacred ‘children of god’, beholders of spirit and symbols of twinhood: Human–bird interaction among the Nuer in western Ethiopia. People and Nature. 6(6), p. 2418–2430. doi: 10.1002/pan3.10719. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The deep connection between Indigenous communities and nature plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation. Ethiopia, one of Africa's priority countries for bird conservation, harbours 821 bird species and 83 ethnic groups of Indigenous people. However, cultural and spiritual ties between Indigenous peoples and bird species remain largely unexplored. This is particularly true for remote Indigenous communities such as the Nuer. Relying on preexisting bird survey data, we conducted focussed group discussions and semi-structured interviews with Indigenous Nuer in western Ethiopia to explore human–bird interactions and documented associated traditional ecological knowledge and considered their conservation implications. We found that Nuers have strong ties with birds. In Nuer community, birds are collectively known by three interchangeable terms: ‘gaatkuoth’ to mean sacred children of god, ‘kuoth’ meaning bearers of spirit and ‘diit’ symbols of human twins (since birds nurture multiple offspring, they associate the incidence of twins in human with birds). We identified 71 culturally important bird species that were used in seven different use categories. Among these species, 10 were used as bushmeat, five for traditional medicine, eight as fish indicators, seven as omens (believed to indicate upcoming misfortunes), three as amulets (believed to protect against danger when bird's body parts are used as necklaces and bracelets), three as season indicators and 45 for their scenic beauty. An informant consensus factor for species in all use categories was >90%, except for the scenic value, indicating a high homogeneity of knowledge about species uses. Bird species with multiple uses have significant cultural values among locals, emphasizing the need to understand these values in conservation efforts. Nuer traditional systems regulate the direct use of birds including for bushmeat. Hunting is permitted only by impoverished households during severe food shortages and is prohibited for those with a history of twins in their ancestry. The Nuer people exhibit a profound cultural connection to birds, viewing them as sacred and spiritually valuable beings. This deep-seated reverence and traditional knowledge highlight the importance of integrating Indigenous perspectives into bird conservation strategies to enhance their effectiveness and respect cultural values.

• Pei, Shan; Yu, Pengbo; Raghwani, Jayna; Wang, Yuxin; Liu, Ziyan & Li, Yidan [Show all 26 contributors for this article] (2024). Anthropogenic land consolidation intensifies zoonotic host diversity loss and disease transmission in human habitats. Nature Ecology and Evolution. 9, p. 99–99. doi: 10.1038/s41559-024-02570-x. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Anthropogenic land-use change is an important driver of global biodiversity loss and threatens public health through biological interactions. Understanding these landscape–ecological effects at local scales will help achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by balancing urbanization, biodiversity and the spread of infectious diseases. Here, we address this knowledge gap by analysing a 43-year-long monthly dataset (1980–2022) of synanthropic rodents in Central China during intensive land-use change. We observed a notable increase in the mean patch size, coinciding with a substantial change in rodent community composition and a marked decline in rodent diversity; eight of the nine local rodent species experienced near-extirpation. Our analysis reveals that these irregular species replacements can be attributed to the effect of land consolidation on species competition among rodents, favouring striped field mice, a critical reservoir host of Hantaan virus (HTNV). Consequently, land consolidation has facilitated the proliferation of striped field mice and increased the prevalence of HTNV among them. This study highlights the importance of considering both direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic activities in the management of biodiversity and public health.

• Ahmed, Ahmed Seid; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha; Bekele, Afework; Alemu, Diress Tsegaye; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Zinner, David J. [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2024). New records of the Ethiopian long-eared bat Plecotus balensis in central Ethiopia. Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity (JWB). 8(2), p. 179–192. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.11099537. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The diversity of bats in Ethiopia comprises at least 80 species, among them the Ethiopian long-eared bat that was described in 2000. It is most likely endemic to the highlands of Ethiopia. However, knowledge of the distribution of the species is limited. During a bat survey in 12 regions of central Ethiopia stretched over 700 km along the Ethiopian Rift, we trapped long-eared bats at sites in three regions and confirmed the species' identity by molecular analysis. All occurrence sites of P. balensis were above 2500 m, confirming this taxon as a high-altitude species. Two of the regions are additions to the known range of P. balensis but it is most likely present in more high-altitude areas of Ethiopia than currently known. Additional surveys in so far unsampled areas are therefore indicated.

• Argaw, Hailu Tilahun; Bekele, Afework; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Alemu, Diress Tsegaye & Bogale, Bezawork Afework (2024). Habitat suitability and distribution patterns of Rouget's rail (Rougetius rougetii Guérin-méneville, 1843) in Ethiopia. Ecology and Evolution. 14(9), p. 1–10. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70276. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Geographical distribution and diversity patterns of bird species are influenced by climate change. The Rouget's rail (Rougetius rougetii) is a ground-dwelling endemic bird species distributed in Ethiopia and Eritrea. It is a near-threatened species menaced by habitat loss, one of the main causes of population declines for bird species. The increasing effects of climate change may further threaten the species’ survival. So far, the spatial distribution of this species is not fully documented. With this study, we develop current potential suitable habitat and predict the future habitat shift of R. rougetii based on environmental data such as bioclimatic variables, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation using 10 algorithms. We evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the bird's distribution and how it shifts under climate change scenarios. We used 182 records of R. rougetii from Ethiopia and nine bioclimatic, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation variables to run the 10 model algorithms. Among 10 algorithms, eight were selected for ensembling models according to their predictive abilities. The current suitable habitats for R. rougetii were predicted to cover an area of about 82,000 km2 despite being highly fragmented. The model suggested that temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation, and mean daily air temperatures of the driest quarter (bio9) contributed the most to delimiting suitable areas for this species. R. rougetii is sensitive to climate change associated with elevation, which leads shrinking distribution of suitable areas. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of habitat loss of R. rougetii suggests the importance of climate change mitigation and implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for this threatened endemic bird species.

• Nguyen, Nga; Fashing, Peter; Trosvik, Pål; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Muinck, Eric de (2024). A Quantitative Comparison of Patterns of Play and Conflict in Nature Preschool and Traditional Preschool Children in Norway. International Journal of Early Childhood. ISSN 0020-7187. doi: 10.1007/s13158-024-00394-1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Early childhood experiences have lifelong physical, social, emotional, and cognitive impacts. High quality early childhood education and care (ECEC) can put children on the path to personal development, lifelong learning, and future employability. Among the fastest growing ECEC options are nature-based preschools, where children spend most or all of each day outdoors in natural environments, but comparative studies of children’s behavior in nature-based versus traditional preschools are needed. We conducted an observational study comparing conflict, activity patterns, and play behavior among children at a nature preschool and a traditional preschool, both in Norway, where access to high quality ECEC is a universal right. We found that preschool children’s behavior varied with time spent outdoors in natural environments: (1) play was more physically active, less gendered, and less often incorporated human-made items at the nature preschool, (2) conflict was almost twice as common at the traditional preschool, and (3) daily group activities at the traditional preschool like sitting down to a cooked meal and gathering up and putting away toys were absent from the nature preschool. While both the traditional and nature preschools offered children equal amounts of play time and a variety of physically and socially stimulating play activities, our results suggest that access to natural environments impacts preschool children’s behavior and interactions in meaningful ways.

• Gelete, Desalegn Chala; Endresen, Dag; Demissew, Sebsebe; Slaughter, Laura Ann; Johnsen, Einar Broch & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2024). Address Social Injustices in Taxonomy: Implement Extended Revisions of Names with Ethical Issues and Persistent Identifiers for Tracing Name Changes. preprints.org > mathematics & computer science > information technology & data management. doi: 10.20944/preprints202407.1673.v1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The binomial nomenclature system, introduced by Carl Linnaeus in the 18th century, has been fundamental for scientific communication and data management. Despite its utility, some scientific names reflect historical biases and ethical issues, including colonial legacies, racism, sexism, and derogatory terms. Recent debates highlight the need to address these injustices, with arguments both for and against revising such names. Critics argue that extensive revisions could disrupt scientific stability, while proponents emphasize the moral imperative to correct these issues. In this opinion paper, we advocate for the establishment of a dedicated committee within international nomenclature bodies to revise taxonomic names with clear ethical concerns and recommend the use of persistent identifiers to effectively manage and track name changes, mitigating potential disruptions to taxonomy and the science that depends on it. By adopting transparent revision processes and making use of digital technology, we can address ethical issues without remarkable upheaval. Science should not perpetuate historical injustices, and it is vital for the scientific community to proactively address social injustices in nomenclature to mitigate ongoing debates and resistance.

• Olsen, Esben Moland; Hutchings, Jeffrey; Rogers, Lauren; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn (2024). Plasticity and Evolution in Atlantic Cod Populations during Climate Change. In Kulatska, Nataliia; Howell, Daniel; Wright, Peter J. & Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg G. (Ed.), Biology and Ecology of Atlantic Cod. CRC Press. ISSN 9781003120872. p. 1–21. doi: 10.1201/9781003120872. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is increasingly recognised that ecology and evolution may interact on contemporary time scales and result in ongoing eco-evolutionary dynamics at population- community- and ecosystem levels. Therefore, an eco-evolutionary perspective is needed to better understand how fish populations may respond to ongoing and future climate change. This chapter highlights research on the impact of climate warming on population dynamics, life history and behaviour of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), specifically making the case of integrating ecological and evolutionary perspectives for understanding local adaptations and broader responses to climate change. The chapter focuses particularly on the interactions between genotypes and the environment, a reflection of phenotypic plasticity that can be graphically described as a reaction norm. With some exceptions, fish tend to be highly plastic, meaning that the phenotype being expressed by an individual will depend on the environment that it experiences during its lifetime, and potentially that experienced by its parents. Understanding the mechanisms and constraints related to such plasticity is therefore relevant for studies on the effects of climate change.

• Samia, Noelle I.; Stramer, Osnat; Saitoh, Takashi & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2024). Climate-driven context-dependent structure of population cycles. Royal Society Open Science. 11(8). doi: 10.1098/rsos.240047. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Multiannual population cycles of small mammals are of interest within population biology. We propose an approach for multidimensional autoregressive (AR) time series and analyse monitoring data on grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus) in Japan to investigate one or possibly multiple multiannual cycles that drive population dynamics. Temperature, through modifying rodent communities, is found to be a key factor shaping population dynamics. Warmer areas are the main habitat for other rodent species resulting in low vole abundance/dominance, as opposed to higher vole dominance in colder areas—a pattern associated with the AR structure and population cycle. Vole populations in simple rodent communities exhibit an AR(2) cycle of 2–3 years. In areas with complex rodent communities, vole dynamics follows an AR(4) process and a combination of two cycles with different lengths. The AR structure varies in relatively small spatial scales, thus widening the scope of AR analyses needed. Historically, vole abundance increased in the late 1970s and decreased from the 1980s, with warm winters shown to be associated with the decline of vole abundance in the AR(4) populations. This significant association between the AR order, population dynamics, temperature and rodent community provides insights into the declining trends observed in rodent populations of the Northern Hemisphere.

• Wang, Yuchen; Zhang, Chutian; Gao, Jing; Chen, Ziqi; Liu, Zhao & Huang, Jianbin [Show all 25 contributors for this article] (2024). Spatiotemporal trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China under climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 121(4). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2312556121. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic disease caused by the rodent-transmitted orthohantaviruses (HVs), with China possessing the most cases globally. The virus hosts in China are Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus, and the disease spread is strongly influenced by global climate dynamics. To assess and predict the spatiotemporal trends of HFRS from 2005 to 2098, we collected historical HFRS data in mainland China (2005–2020), historical and projected climate and population data (2005–2098), and spatial variables including biotic, environmental, topographical, and socioeconomic. Spatiotemporal predictions and mapping were conducted under 27 scenarios incorporating multiple integrated representative concentration pathway models and population scenarios. We identify the type of magistral HVs host species as the best spatial division, including four region categories. Seven extreme climate indices associated with temperature and precipitation have been pinpointed as key factors affecting the trends of HFRS. Our predictions indicate that annual HFRS cases will increase significantly in 62 of 356 cities in mainland China. Rattus regions are predicted to be the most active, surpassing Apodemus and Mixed regions. Eighty cities are identified as at severe risk level for HFRS, each with over 50 reported cases annually, including 22 new cities primarily located in East China and Rattus regions after 2020, while 6 others develop new risk. Our results suggest that the risk of HFRS will remain high through the end of this century, with Rattus norvegicus being the most active host, and that extreme climate indices are significant risk factors. Our findings can inform evidence-based policymaking regarding future risk of HFRS.

• Worku, Ejigu Alemayehu; Evangelista, Paul H.; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha; Bekele, Afework; Bro-Jørgensen, Jakob & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2024). Modeling habitat suitability for the lesser-known populations of endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains, Ethiopia. Ecology and Evolution. 14(4). doi: 10.1002/ece3.11235. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Habitat suitability models have become a valuable tool for wildlife conservation and management, and are frequently used to better understand the range and habitat requirements of rare and endangered species. In this study, we employed two habitat suitability modeling techniques, namely Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) models, to identify potential suitable habitats for the endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) and environmental factors affecting its distribution in the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains of Ethiopia. Presence points, used to develop our habitat suitability models, were recorded from fecal pellet counts (n = 130) encountered along 196 randomly established transects in 2015 and 2016. Predictor variables used in our models included major landcover types, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), greenness and wetness tasseled cap vegetation indices, elevation, and slope. Area Under the Curve model evaluations for BRT and Maxent were 0.96 and 0.95, respectively, demonstrating high performance. Both models were then ensembled into a single binary output highlighting an area of agreement. Our results suggest that 1864 km2 (9.1%) of the 20,567 km2 study area is suitable habitat for the mountain nyala with land cover types, elevation, NDVI, and slope of the terrain being the most important variables for both models. Our results highlight the extent to which habitat loss and fragmentation have disconnected mountain nyala subpopulations. Our models demonstrate the importance of further protecting suitable habitats for mountain nyala to ensure the species' conservation.

• Slavin, Philip; Cui, Yujun; Yang, Ruifu & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2024). The Evolutionary History of Yersinia pestis. In Atshabar, Bakyt B.; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Fair, Jeanne M. (Ed.), Plague: The Ecology of Natural Foci. Springer Nature. ISSN 9783031588303. p. 139–170. Full text in Research Archive
• Mekonnen, Addisu; Fashing, Peter; Chapman, Colin A.; Worku, Ejigu Alemayehu; Fetene, Belste & Fekadu, Mekbib [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2023). The Ethiopian wolf can act as a flagship and umbrella species to protect the Afroalpine ecosystem and foster sustainable development. Environmental Conservation. ISSN 0376-8929. 51(1), p. 1–10. doi: 10.1017/S0376892923000309. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Summary Habitat alteration and climate change are important threats to terrestrial biodiversity in the tropics. Endorsing flagship or umbrella species can help conserve sympatric biodiversity, restore degraded ecosystems and achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). The Ethiopian wolf ( Canis simensis ) is a rare and endemic Ethiopian canid. It is Africa’s most endangered canid species and is restricted to several isolated patches of Afroalpine habitats. While its behavioural ecology and conservation biology have been well studied, studies of the Ethiopian wolf’s significance for the conservation of its habitat and sympatric species are lacking. Here we use geographical range overlap and geospatial modelling to evaluate the importance of the Ethiopian wolf as a flagship and/or umbrella species. We assess whether conservation interventions targeting the Ethiopian wolf could help to restore and protect Afroalpine habitat and conserve sympatric species whilst simultaneously providing a wide range of socioeconomic and environmental benefits. We found that Ethiopian wolves share their range with 73 endemic and/or threatened vertebrate species, 68 of which are Afroalpine ecosystem species, and at least 121 endemic and/or threatened plant species. Ethiopian wolves are taxonomically distinctive and charismatic species classified as Endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Thus, they meet both the flagship and umbrella species criteria to restore Afroalpine habitats and conserve threatened sympatric species. A conservation strategy protecting and restoring Afroalpine habitat has the potential to contribute to achieving at least five of the 17 UN SDGs. The protection of flagship and umbrella species should be integrated into broader regional biodiversity and habitat conservation.

• Xu, Xiangbo; Xu, Yan; Li, Jing; Lu, Yonglong; Jenkins, Alan & Ferrier, Robert C. [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2023). Coupling of crop and livestock production can reduce the agricultural GHG emission from smallholder farms. iScience. 26(6), p. 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106798. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ensuring global food security and environmental sustainability is dependent upon the contribution of the world’s hundred million smallholder farms, but the contributions of smallholder farms to global agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been understudied. We developed a localized agricultural life cycle assessment (LCA) database to calculate GHG emissions and made the first extensive assessment of the smallholder farms’ GHG emission reduction potentials by coupling crop and livestock production (CCLP), a redesign of current practices toward sustainable agriculture in China. CCLP can reduce the GHG emission intensity by 17.67%, with its own feed and manure returning to the field as an essential path. Scenario analysis verified that greater GHG emission reduction (28.09%–41.32%) will be achieved by restructuring CCLP. Therefore, this mixed farming is a mode with broader benefits to provide sustainable agricultural practices for reducing GHG emissions fairly.

• Worku, Ejigu Alemayehu; Bro-Jørgensen, Jakob; Evangelista, Paul H.; Bekele, Afework; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2023). Group size dynamics of the endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in protected areas of the Arsi and Ahmar Mountains, Ethiopia. Global Ecology and Conservation. 46, p. 1–12. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02546. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  As an adaptive biological trait, group size may offer a useful metric for monitoring the welfare of wildlife species affected by their environmental surroundings. Here, we examine the drivers that cause variation in group size of the endangered mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), including a range of natural ecological factors as well as the density of livestock. For this purpose, we collected data along transect lines during both wet and dry seasons focusing on the hitherto poorly studied populations in the Arsi Mountains National Park, Munessa-Kuke Controlled Hunting Area and Muktar Mountain Forest Reserve, which are managed for multiple use of a variety of natural resources. We found group sizes to be an average of 6.3, 4.4 and 4.1 individuals in the Arsi Mountains, Munessa-Kuke and Muktar Mountain study areas, respectively, and a combination of livestock density and habitat visibility explained as much as 74% of the variation in group size. We propose that whereas group size increases with forage availability (as measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index -NDVI) and in open habitats (probably due to a switch in antipredator strategy), the presence of livestock also has an independent, negative impact on group size because of the associated disturbance. The findings contribute to understanding the environmental drivers of variation in group size in social antelopes, particularly highlighting the need to improve livestock management to help conservation of species at risk.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Schlatte, Rudolf; Liu, Xiaoli; Pielke, Roger Jr.; Chen, Ben & Bjørnstad, Ottar Nordal [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2023). Reply to Ekström and Ottersen: Real-time access to data during outbreaks is a key to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 120(40). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2312649120. Full text in Research Archive
• Feng, Jianfeng; Li, Shengpeng; Li, Xiaoxiao; Jiang, Yueming; Wang, Ruyue & Meng, Xianhao [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2023). Coupling strength between omnivory loops and their one-species-delete subloops drives real food web stability. Theoretical Ecology. ISSN 1874-1738. 16, p. 327–338. doi: 10.1007/s12080-023-00568-y. Full text in Research Archive
• Wang, Han; Prentice, Prentice Colin; Wright, Ian J.; Warton, David I.; Qiao, Shengchao & Xu, Xiangtao [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2023). Leaf economics fundamentals explained by optimality principles. Science Advances. 9(3), p. 1–10. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add5667. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The life span of leaves increases with their mass per unit area (LMA). It is unclear why. Here, we show that this empirical generalization (the foundation of the worldwide leaf economics spectrum) is a consequence of natural selection, maximizing average net carbon gain over the leaf life cycle. Analyzing two large leaf trait datasets, we show that evergreen and deciduous species with diverse construction costs (assumed proportional to LMA) are selected by light, temperature, and growing-season length in different, but predictable, ways. We quantitatively explain the observed divergent latitudinal trends in evergreen and deciduous LMA and show how local distributions of LMA arise by selection under different environmental conditions acting on the species pool. These results illustrate how optimality principles can underpin a new theory for plant geography and terrestrial carbon dynamics.

• Fell, Henry Gillies; Jones, Matthew; Atkinson, Steve; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Algar, Adam C. (2023). The role of reservoir species in mediating plague's dynamic response to climate. Royal Society Open Science. 10(5). doi: 10.1098/rsos.230021. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The distribution and transmission of Yersinia pestis , the bacterial agent of plague, responds dynamically to climate, both within wildlife reservoirs and human populations. The exact mechanisms mediating plague's response to climate are still poorly understood, particularly across large environmentally heterogeneous regions encompassing several reservoir species. A heterogeneous response to precipitation was observed in plague intensity across northern and southern China during the Third Pandemic. This has been attributed to the response of reservoir species in each region. We use environmental niche modelling and hindcasting methods to test the response of a broad range of reservoir species to precipitation. We find little support for the hypothesis that the response of reservoir species to precipitation mediated the impact of precipitation on plague intensity. We instead observed that precipitation variables were of limited importance in defining species niches and rarely showed the expected response to precipitation across northern and southern China. These findings do not suggest that precipitation–reservoir species dynamics never influence plague intensity but that instead, the response of reservoir species to precipitation across a single biome cannot be assumed and that limited numbers of reservoir species may have a disproportional impact upon plague intensity.

• Kibaja, Mohamed Julius; Mekonnen, Addisu; Reitan, Trond; Nahonyo, Cuthbert L.; Levi, Matana & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2023). On the move: Activity budget and ranging ecology of endangered Ashy red colobus monkeys (Piliocolobus tephrosceles) in a savanna woodland habitat. Global Ecology and Conservation. 43, p. 1–15. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02440. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The majority of primate species are under the threat of extinction and their numbers are decreasing worldwide mainly due to human activities. Most primates outside protected areas survive in habitats with different degrees of anthropogenic alterations. Thus, the persistence of a primate species across its geographic range partly depends on the ability of its populations to adapt to diverse habitats with different spatiotemporal patterns of food availability. Understanding the ecological and behavioral adaptations of a particular species to the different habitats it occupies is crucial for designing a comprehensive conservation approach that can also benefit sympatric wildlife species. Ashy red colobus (Piliocolobus tephrosceles) are arboreal, folivorous and endangered monkeys that occur in Uganda and Tanzania. They have been studied in forest habitats, but very little is known about their behavior and ecology in savanna woodland and how these arboreal and folivorous monkeys can survive in such dry habitats. To better understand this species’ range of adaptations, from July 2016 to June 2018 we conducted a comparative study of habitat quality, activity budget and ranging ecology of two groups of Ashy red colobus monkeys living in distinct habitats in western Tanzania: savanna woodland and forest mosaic. We found that the savanna woodland group spent significantly more time moving and less time feeding than the forest mosaic group. We also found that the savanna woodland group had a larger home range, core areas and mean daily travel distance than the forest mosaic group. The savanna woodland group had the largest home range size ever reported for Ashy red colobus monkeys or other red colobus species. Seasonal differences in home range and core area size were found for the forest mosaic group (both were larger in the dry than in the wet season) but not for the savanna woodland group. The patchy spatial distribution and lower density of most of the preferred food tree species of Ashy red colobus monkeys in the savanna woodland seemed to influence their ranging behavior in this habitat. These results expand our understanding of colobine behavioral and ecological flexibility and provide critical data to formulate workable conservation strategies that encompass the whole range of habitats occupied by Ashy red colobus monkeys. Our study also helps to better understand the ecological constraints that savanna woodland habitats pose on primates.

• Yang, Lingyue; Wang, Zengmiao; Wang, Lin; Vrancken, Bram; Wang, Ruixue & Wei, Yuanlong [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2023). Association of vaccination, international travel, public health and social measures with lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 120(33). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2305403120. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Continually emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern that can evade immune defenses are driving recurrent epidemic waves of COVID-19 globally. However, the impact of measures to contain the virus and their effect on lineage diversity dynamics are poorly understood. Here, we jointly analyzed international travel, public health and social measures (PHSM), COVID-19 vaccine rollout, SARS-CoV-2 lineage diversity, and the case growth rate (GR) from March 2020 to September 2022 across 63 countries. We showed that despite worldwide vaccine rollout, PHSM are effective in mitigating epidemic waves and lineage diversity. An increase of 10,000 monthly travelers in a single country-to-country route between endemic countries corresponds to a 5.5% (95% CI: 2.9 to 8.2%) rise in local lineage diversity. After accounting for PHSM, natural immunity from previous infections, and waning immunity, we discovered a negative association between the GR of cases and adjusted vaccine coverage (AVC). We also observed a complex relationship between lineage diversity and vaccine rollout. Specifically, we found a significant negative association between lineage diversity and AVC at both low and high levels but not significant at the medium level. Our study deepens the understanding of population immunity and lineage dynamics for future pandemic preparedness and responsiveness.

• Yang, Ruifu; Atkinson, Steve; Chen, Ziqi; Cui, Yujun; Du, Zongmin & Han, Yanping [Show all 17 contributors for this article] (2023). Yersinia pestis and Plague: Some Knowns and Unknowns. Zoonoses. ISSN 2737-7474. 3(1), p. 1–24. doi: 10.15212/ZOONOSES-2022-0040. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Since its first identification in 1894 during the third pandemic in Hong Kong, there has been significant progress in understanding the lifestyle of Yersinia pestis , the pathogen that is responsible for plague. Although we now have some understanding of the pathogen’s physiology, genetics, genomics, evolution, gene regulation, pathogenesis and immunity, there are many unknown aspects of the pathogen and its disease development. Here, we focus on some of the knowns and unknowns related to Y. pestis and plague. We notably focus on some key Y. pestis physiologic and virulence traits that are important for its mammal-flea-mammal life cycle, but also its emergence from the enteropathogen, Yersinia pseudotuberculosis . Some aspects of the genetic diversity of Y. pestis , the distribution and ecology of plague, as well as the medical countermeasures to protect our population are also provided. Lastly, we present some biosafety and biosecurity information related to Y. pestis and plague.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Schlatte, Rudolf; Liu, Xiaoli; Pielke, Roger; Li, Ruiyun & Chen, Bin [Show all 18 contributors for this article] (2023). How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 120(10). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2220080120. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks. We show that a lesson from the recent pandemic is that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread than adopting immigration quarantine. Reducing air travel out of a source country has the most important effect regarding the spreading of the disease to the rest of the world. Based upon our results, we propose a digital twin as a further developed tool to inform future pandemic decision-making to inform measures intended to control the spread of disease agents of potential future pandemics. We discuss the design criteria for such a digital twin model as well as the feasibility of obtaining access to the necessary online data on international air travel.

• Zheng, Xiaoqi; Lu, Yonglong; Ma, Cuimei; Yuan, Jingjing; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Hessen, Dag Olav [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2023). Greenhouse gas emissions from extractive industries in a globalized era. Journal of Environmental Management (JEM). ISSN 0301-4797. 343, p. 1–10. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118172. Full text in Research Archive
• Xu, Lei; Wang, Qian; Yang, Ruifu; Ganbold, Dalantai; Tsogbadrakh, Nyamdorj & Dong, Kaixing [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2023). Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China. Scientific Reports. 13(1), p. 1–9. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38966-1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types.

• Gutema, Tariku Mekonnen; Mersha, Alemneh; Aticho, Abebayehu; Gemeda, Dessalegn Obsi; Diriba, Shiferaw & Alemu, Tibebu [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2023). Wildlife roadkill in Southwestern Ethiopia: Hotspots, drivers, and victim species. Heliyon. 9(9). doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19783. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Wildlife-vehicle collision (WVC) is one of the major causes of wildlife mortality and a concern for conservationists worldwide. The study of roadkill data that can be used to develop appropriate measures and strategies for both wildlife conservation and traffic safety to mitigate the WVC and animals' mortality. Extensive studies have been conducted in the developed countries on the identification of WVC hotspots and its potential impact; however, less attention is given in developing countries. Because of this, the problem is not well understood in developing countries. This study was intended to identify victim species, hotspot areas for roadkill, and factors that contribute to WVC in Jimma Zone, along three roads leading from Jimma City. Data were collected using a citizen science approach and a skilled man power road survey (March–September 2022) to document the number and type of species killed. Three road segments (135 km in total) were surveyed weekly as a baseline for future research. All statistical analyses were carried out using R-software. In the present study, a total of 84 roadkill specimens were collected from 16 different mammal species, of which 85.7% were medium-sized carnivores. The findings showed that Jackals (Canis mesomalis and Canis adustus) were the most frequently killed species (25%, n is 21), followed by Civettictis civetta (22.62%, n is 19). The study revealed that the major factors causing collisions include habitat type (forest cover) and wildlife behavior (nocturnal or diurnal). Further, the study revealed that the majority of WVC occurred at night (dusk) and at dawn in areas that are covered with dense forests. To minimize the potential risks of WVC and animals’ mortality, we suggest putting warning signs in hotspot areas where roadkill usually occur frequently. In addition, we recommend creating awareness among drivers, traffic police, and all communities about the negative impacts and consequences of collisions on the ecological and economic value of wildlife.

• Cui, Haotian; Lu, Yonglong; Zhou, Yunqiao; He, Guizhen; Song, Shuai & Yang, Shengjie [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2023). Carbon flow through continental-scale ground logistics transportation. iScience. 26(1), p. 1–18. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105792. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The flourishing logistics in both developed and emerging economies leads to huge greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; however, the emission fluxes are poorly constrained. Here, we constructed a spatial network of logistic GHG emissions based on multisource big data at continental scale. GHG emissions related to logistics transportation reached 112.14 Mt CO2-equivalents (CO2e), with seven major urban agglomerations contributing 63% of the total emissions. Regions with short transport distances and well-developed road infrastructure had relatively high emission efficiency. Underlying value flow of the commodities is accompanied by logistics carbon flow along the supply chain. The main driving factors affecting GHG emissions are driving speed and gross domestic product. It may mitigate GHG emissions by 27.50–1162.75 Mt CO2e in 15 years if a variety of energy combinations or the appropriate driving speed (65–70 km/h) is adopted. The estimations are of great significance to make integrated management policies for the global logistics sector.

• Negrutiu, Ioan; Escher, Gerard; Whittington, Jason D; Ottersen, Ole Petter; Gillet, Philippe & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2023). The time boundary 2025-2030: the global resources and planetary health toolbox. Proceedings of the Romanian Academy. ISSN 1454-8267. 25(2), p. 117–135. Full text in Research Archive
• Wang, Daoping; Bjørnstad, Ottar Nordal; Lei, Tianyang; Sun, Yida; Huo, Jingwen & Hao, Qi [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2023). Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility. Nature Communications. 14(1). doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37075-x. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ensuring a more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control global pandemics and support economic recovery. We analyze the socioeconomic effects - defined as health gains, lockdown-easing effect, and supply-chain rebuilding benefit - of a set of idealized COVID-19 vaccine distribution scenarios. We find that an equitable vaccine distribution across the world would increase global economic benefits by 11.7% ($950 billion per year), compared to a scenario focusing on vaccinating the entire population within vaccine-producing countries first and then distributing vaccines to non-vaccine-producing countries. With limited doses among low-income countries, prioritizing the elderly who are at high risk of dying, together with the key front-line workforce who are at high risk of exposure is projected to be economically beneficial (e.g., 0.9%~3.4% annual GDP in India). Our results reveal how equitable distributions would cascade more protection of vaccines to people and ways to improve vaccine equity and accessibility globally through international collaboration.

• Fashing, Peter; Nguyen, Nga; Demissew, Sebsebe; Gizaw, Abel; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha & Mekonnen, Addisu [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2022). Ecology, evolution, and conservation of Ethiopia’s biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 119(50). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2206635119. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ethiopia is home to one of the richest and most unique assemblages of fauna and flora on the African continent. Contained within its borders are two major centers of endemism, the mesic Roof of Africa (also known as the Ethiopian Highlands) and the arid Horn of Africa, resulting from the country’s varied topography and consequent geographic isolation. These centers of endemism are crucial to global conservation as evidenced by their classification within the Eastern Afromontane and Horn of Africa biodiversity hotspots, respectively. Ethiopia’s diverse ecosystems and the biodiversity they contain are increasingly threatened by climate change and the growing impacts of Africa’s second largest human and largest livestock populations. In this paper, we focus on several key areas of recent and ongoing research on Ethiopian biodiversity that have broadened our understanding of nature and its conservation in Africa. Topics explored include the behavioral ecology of Ethiopia’s large social mammals, the ecology and conservation of its unique coffee forests, and Ethiopian approaches to community conservation, fortress conservation, and nature-based solutions. We also highlight the increasing prominence of Ethiopian scientists in studies of the country’s biodiversity in recent decades. We suggest promising avenues for future research in evolutionary biology, ecology, systematics, and conservation in Ethiopia and discuss how recent and ongoing work in Ethiopia is helping us better understand and conserve nature in the human-dominated landscapes of Africa and other tropical regions today.

• Gutema, Tariku Mekonnen; Atickem, Anagaw; Tsegaye, Diress; Chala, Desalegn; Bekele, Afework & Sillero-Zubiri, Claudio [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2022). Home range, habitat use, and activity patterns of African wolves (Canis lupaster) in the Ethiopian highlands. Global Ecology and Conservation. 40. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02324. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  African wolves (Canis lupaster) and Ethiopian wolves (C. simensis) occur often sympatrically across habitats in the Ethiopian Highlands, with recent studies finding evidence for interspecific competition. However, unlike the well-studied Ethiopian wolf, comparatively little is known about the ecology of the African wolf in the Ethiopian Highlands. To address this empirical gap, we collected data on home range size, habitat use, and activity patterns of radio-collared African wolves at the Guassa Menz Community Conservation Area (GCCA) and Borena Saynt Worehimenu National Park (BSNP). We followed the African wolves (5 in GCCA, 6 in BSNP) for 16 months and had 659 ± 83 encounters with each individual. The mean 95% kernel density estimate home range size of African wolves was higher in BSNP (4.5 ± 1.5 km2) than at GCCA (2.2 ± 0.7 km2). In 55% (n = 3934) of the encounters the wolves were found to be solitary, whereas in other encounters we found them in groups of two to seven. At both sites, the African wolves were more often found in areas close to human settlements than in more intact habitat, and they were mainly active at dawn and dusk. These results show flexibility in African wolf socioecology in response to habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbance. We recommend further studies on major causes of spatial and temporal niche partitioning of Ethiopian wolves and African wolves in the Ethiopian Highlands.

• Cao, Yihan; Whittington, Jason D; Kausrud, Kyrre; Li, Ruiyun & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). The Relative Contribution of Climatic, Demographic Factors, Disease Control Measures and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity to Variation of Global COVID-19 Transmission. GeoHealth. 6(8). doi: 10.1029/2022GH000589. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Despite a substantial number of COVID-19 related research papers published, it remains unclear as to which factors are associated with the observed variation in global transmission and what are their relative levels of importance. This study applies a rigorous statistical framework to provide robust estimations of the factor effects for a global and integrated perspective on this issue. We developed a mixed effect model exploring the relative importance of potential factors driving COVID-19 transmission while incorporating spatial and temporal heterogeneity of spread. We use an integrated data set for 87 countries across six continents for model specification and fitting. The best model accounts for 70.4% of the variance in the data analyzed: 10 fixed effect factors explain 20.5% of the variance, random temporal and spatial effects account for 50% of the variance. The fixed effect factors are classified into climatic, demographic and disease control groups. The explained variance in global transmission by the three groups are 0.6%, 1.1%, and 4.4% respectively. The high proportion of variance accounted for by random effects indicated striking differences in temporal transmission trajectories and effects of population mobility among the countries. In particular, the country-specific mobility-transmission relationship turns out to be the most important factor in explaining the observed global variation of transmission in the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic.

• Geng, Xiaojun; Zhang, Yaru; Fu, Yongshuo H.; Hao, Fanghua; Janssens, Ivan A. & Peñuelas, Josep [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2022). Contrasting phenology responses to climate warming across the northern extra-tropics. Fundamental Research. ISSN 2096-9457. 2(5), p. 708–715. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2021.11.035. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of spring leaf-out of woody species at middle and high latitudes, albeit with large differences. Insights in the spatial variation of this climate warming response may therefore help to constrain future trends in leaf-out and its impact on energy, water and carbon balances at global scales. In this study, we used in situ phenology observations of 38 species from 2067 study sites, distributed across the northern hemisphere in China, Europe and the United States, to investigate the latitudinal patterns of spring leaf-out and its sensitivity (ST, advance of leaf-out dates per degree of warming) and correlation (RT, partial correlation coefficient) to temperature during the period 1980–2016. Across all species and sites, we found that ST decreased significantly by 0.15 ± 0.02 d °C−1 °N−1, and RT increased by 0.02 ± 0.001 °N−1 (both at P < 0.001). The latitudinal patterns in RT and ST were explained by the differences in requirements of chilling and thermal forcing that evolved to maximize tree fitness under local climate, particularly climate predictability and summed precipitation during the pre-leaf-out season. Our results thus showed complicated spatial differences in leaf-out responses to ongoing climate warming and indicated that spatial differences in the interactions among environmental cues need to be embedded into large-scale phenology models to improve the simulation accuracy.

• Geng, Xiaojun; Fu, Yongshuo H.; Piao, Shilong; Hao, Fanghua; Boeck, Hans J. De & Zhang, Xuan [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2022). Higher temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf-out alters the time between phenophases across temperate tree species. Global Ecology and Biogeography. ISSN 1466-822X. 31(5), p. 901–911. doi: 10.1111/geb.13463. Full text in Research Archive
• Gessese, Misganaw Tamrat; Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha; Flagstad, Øystein; Fischer, Martha; Roos, Christian & Evangelista, Paul [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2022). Swayne's hartebeest in Ethiopia: population estimate, genetic variability and competition with livestock. Oryx. ISSN 0030-6053. 56(3), p. 336–344. doi: 10.1017/S0030605320000927. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Swayne’s hartebeest Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei was once widely distributed in the Horn of Africa. By the early 20th century, however, it was extirpated across most of its range and is now limited to two relict populations in the Ethiopian Rift Valley and categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. In this study, we estimated the size and genetic diversity of these two remaining populations, with a particular focus on competition with livestock. We used a total block count method for both Swayne’s hartebeest and livestock population counts, and faecal samples for a population genetic analysis. We estimated the total population of Swayne’s hartebeest to be 1,528, with 518 individuals in Senkele Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary and 1,010 individuals in Maze National Park. Livestock densities were 212 and 153 times those of Swayne’s hartebeest in Senkele Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary and Maze National Park, respectively. Among73 mitochondrial D-loop sequences (34 from Senkele Swayne’s Hartebeest Sanctuary and39 from Maze National Park), we found 22 haplotypes (Senkele 12, Maze 16, shared 6). Population genetic parameters suggest only weak sub-structuring between the two populations (FST = 0.164). Despite the positive population trends in both protected areas, the spatial overlap with livestock may lead to future population decline as a result of resource competition and disease transmission. We therefore recommend further translocation to other protected areas within the species’ former range. Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei, Endangered species, Ethiopia, livestock, population estimate, population genetics, Swayne’s hartebeest, translocation

• Langangen, Øystein Ole Gahr; Ohlberger, Jan Philipp; Stige, Leif Christian; Patin, Rémi; Buttay, Lucie & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2022). Effects of early life mass mortality events on fish populations. Fish and Fisheries. ISSN 1467-2960. 24(1), p. 176–186. doi: 10.1111/faf.12718. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Mass mortality events are ubiquitous in nature and can be caused by, for example, diseases, extreme weather and human perturbations such as contamination. Despite being prevalent and rising globally, how mass mortality in early life causes population-level effects such as reduced total population biomass, is not fully explored. In particular for fish, mass mortality affecting early life may be dampened by compensatory density-dependent processes. However, due to large variations in year-class strength, potentially caused by density-independent variability in survival, the impact at the population level may be high in certain years. We quantify population-level impacts at two levels of mass mortality (50% and 99% additional mortality) during early life across 40 fish species using age-structured population dynamics models. The findings from these species-specific models are further supported by an analysis of detailed stock-specific models for three of the species. We find that population impacts are highly variable between years and species. Short-lived species that exhibit a low degree of compensatory density dependence and high interannual variation in survival experience the strongest impacts at the population level. These quantitative and general relationships allow predicting the range of potential impacts of mass mortality events on species based on their life history. This is critical considering that the frequency and severity of mass mortality events are increasing worldwide.

• Nilsson, Pernille; Ravinet, Mark; Cui, Yujun; Berg, Paul Ragnar; Zhang, Yujiang & Guo, Rong [Show all 17 contributors for this article] (2022). Polygenic plague resistance in the great gerbil uncovered by population sequencing. PNAS Nexus. 1(5). doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac211. Full text in Research Archive
• Wan, Xinru; Holyoak, Marcel; Yan, Chuan; Maho, Yvon Le; Dirzo, Rodolfo & Krebs, Charles J. [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2022). Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis. Biological Reviews. ISSN 1464-7931. 97(6), p. 2174–2194. doi: 10.1111/brv.12888. Full text in Research Archive
• Fu, Yongshuo H.; Geng, Xiaojun; Chen, Shouzhi; Wu, Hao; Hao, Fanghua & Zhang, Xuan [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2022). Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013. 29(5), p. 1377–1389. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16545. Full text in Research Archive
• Dharmarajan, Guha; Li, Ruiyun; Chanda, Emmanuel; Dean, Katharine Rose; Dirzo, Rodolfo & Jakobsen, Kjetill Sigurd [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2022). The Animal Origin of Major Human Infectious Diseases: What Can Past Epidemics Teach Us About Preventing the Next Pandemic? Zoonoses. ISSN 2737-7474. 2(11). doi: 10.15212/ZOONOSES-2021-0028. Full text in Research Archive
• Chapman, Colin; Hemingway, Claire; Sarkar, Dipto; Gogarten, Jan & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). Altmetric Scores in Conservation Science have Gender and Regional Biases. Conservation and Society. ISSN 0972-4923. 20(3), p. 195–200. doi: 10.4103/cs.cs_27_21. Full text in Research Archive
• Sodeland, Marte; Jentoft, Sissel; Jorde, Per Erik; Mattingsdal, Morten; Albretsen, Jon & Kleiven, Alf Ring [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2022). Stabilizing selection on Atlantic cod supergenes through a millennium of extensive exploitation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 119(8). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2114904119. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Life on Earth has been characterized by recurring cycles of ecological stasis and disruption, relating biological eras to geological and climatic transitions through the history of our planet. Due to the increasing degree of ecological abruption caused by human influences many advocate that we now have entered the geological era of the Anthropocene, or “the age of man.” Considering the ongoing mass extinction and ecosystem reshuffling observed worldwide, a better understanding of the drivers of ecological stasis will be a requisite for identifying routes of intervention and mitigation. Ecosystem stability may rely on one or a few keystone species, and the loss of such species could potentially have detrimental effects. The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) has historically been highly abundant and is considered a keystone species in ecosystems of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Collapses of cod stocks have been observed on both sides of the Atlantic and reported to have detrimental effects that include vast ecosystem reshuffling. By whole-genome resequencing we demonstrate that stabilizing selection maintains three extensive “supergenes” in Atlantic cod, linking these genes to species persistence and ecological stasis. Genomic inference of historic effective population sizes shows continued declines for cod in the North Sea–Skagerrak–Kattegat system through the past millennia, consistent with an early onset of the marine Anthropocene through industrialization and commercialization of fisheries throughout the medieval period.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Tao, Yuxin; Zhang, Chutian; Bramanti, Barbara; Büntgen, Ulf & Cong, Xianbin [Show all 19 contributors for this article] (2022). No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 119(51). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2209816119. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Caused by Yersinia pestis , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.

• Atickem, Anagaw Meshesha & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). The role of rodents in the conservation of endangered species in the Ethiopian highlands. Therya. 13(1), p. 73–77. doi: 10.12933/therya-22-1185. Full text in Research Archive
• Brun, Mats Kirkesæther; Ahmed, Elyes; Nordbotten, Jan Martin & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). Modeling the Process of Speciation Using a Multiscale Framework Including A Posteriori Error Estimates. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics. ISSN 0036-1399. 82(2), p. 450–475. doi: 10.1137/21M1405228. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper concerns the modeling and numerical simulation of the process of speciation. In particular, given conditions for which one or more speciation events within an ecosystem occur, our aim is to develop the necessary modeling and simulation tools. Care is also taken to establish a solid mathematical foundation on which our modeling framework is built. This is the subject of the first half of the paper. The second half is devoted to developing a multiscale framework for eco-evolutionary modeling, where the relevant scales are that of species and individual/population, respectively. The species level model we employ can be considered as an extension of the classical Lotka--Volterra model, where in addition to the species abundance, the model also governs the evolution of the species mean traits and species trait covariances and in this sense generalizes the purely ecological Lotka--Volterra model to an eco-evolutionary model. Although the model thus allows for evolving species, it does not (by construction) allow for the branching of species, i.e., speciation events. The reason for this is related to that of separate scales; the unit of species is too coarse to capture the fine-scale dynamics of a speciation event. Instead, the branching species should be regarded as a population of individuals moving along a selection of trait axes (i.e., trait-space). For this, we employ a trait-specific population density model governing the dynamics of the population density as a function of evolutionary traits. At this scale there is no a priori definition of species, but both species and speciation may be defined a posteriori as, e.g., local maxima and saddle points of the population density, respectively. Hence, a system of interacting species can be described at the species level, while for branching species a population level description is necessary. Our multiscale framework thus consists of coupling the species and population level models where speciation events are detected in advance and then resolved at the population scale until the branching is complete. Moreover, since the population level model is formulated as a PDE, we first establish the well-posedness in the time-discrete setting and then derive the a posteriori error estimates, which provides a fully computable upper bound on an energy-type error, including also for the case of general smooth distributions (which will be useful for the detection of speciation events). Several numerical tests validate our framework in practice.

• Lima, Mauricio; Gayo, Eugenia M.; Estay, Sergio A. & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). Population Principles, Climate Change, and the “Collapse” of the Rapa Nui Society. In Rull, Valenti & Stevenson, Christopher (Ed.), The Prehistory of Rapa Nui (Easter Island). Springer. ISSN 9783030911263. p. 553–564. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-91127-0_21. Full text in Research Archive
• Oomen, Rebekah Alice; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben Moland; Jentoft, Sissel; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Hutchings, Jeffrey (2022). Warming Accelerates the Onset of the Molecular Stress Response and Increases Mortality of Larval Atlantic Cod. Integrative and Comparative Biology. ISSN 1540-7063. 62(6), p. 1784–1801. doi: 10.1093/icb/icac145. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Temperature profoundly affects ectotherm physiology. Although differential thermal responses influence fitness, thus driving population dynamics and species distributions, our understanding of the molecular architecture underlying these responses is limited, especially during the critical larval stage. Here, using RNA-sequencing of laboratory-reared Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) larvae of wild origin, we find changes in gene expression in thousands of transcripts consistent with a severe cellular stress response at both ambient and projected (+2°C and +4°C) temperatures. In addition, specific responses to stress, heat, and hypoxia were commonly identified in gene ontology enrichment analyses and 33 of the 44 genes comprising the minimum stress proteome of all organisms were upregulated. Earlier onset of the stress response was evident at higher temperatures; concomitant increased growth and mortality suggests a reduction in fitness. Temporal differences in gene expression levels do not correspond to differences in growing degree days, suggesting negative physiological consequences of warming beyond accelerated development. Because gene expression is costly, we infer that the upregulation of thousands of transcripts in response to warming in larval cod might act as an energetic drain. We hypothesize that the energetically costly stress response, coupled with increased growth rate at warmer temperatures, leads to faster depletion of energy reserves and increased risk of mortality in larval cod. As sea surface temperatures continue to rise over the next century, reduced fitness of Atlantic cod larvae might lead to population declines in this ecologically and socioeconomically important species. Further, our findings expand our understanding of transcriptomic responses to temperature by ectothermic vertebrate larvae beyond the critical first-feeding stage, a time when organisms begin balancing the energetic demands of growth, foraging, development, and maintenance. Linking the molecular basis of a thermal response to key fitness-related traits is fundamentally important to predicting how global warming will affect ectotherms.

• Cheng, Chaoyuan; Holyoak, Marcel; Xu, Lei; Li, Jing; Liu, Wenjun & Stenseth, Nils Christian [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2022). Host and geographic barriers shape the competition, coexistence, and extinction patterns of influenza A (H1N1) viruses. Ecology and Evolution. 12(3). doi: 10.1002/ece3.8732. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The influenza virus mutates and spreads rapidly, making it suitable for studying evolutionary and ecological processes. The ecological factors and processes by which different lineages of influenza compete or coexist within hosts through time and across geographical space are poorly known. We hypothesized that competition would be stronger for influenza viruses infecting the same host compared to different hosts (the Host Barrier Hypothesis), and for those with a higher cross-region transmission intensity (the Geographic Barrier Hypothesis). Using available sequences of the influenza A (H1N1) virus in GenBank, we identified six lineages, twelve clades, and several replacement events. We found that human-hosted lineages had a higher cross-region transmission intensity than swine-hosted lineages. Co-occurrence probabilities of lineages infecting the same host were lower than those infecting different hosts, and human-hosted lineages had lower co-occurrence probabilities and genetic diversity than swine-hosted lineages. These results show that H1N1 lineages infecting the same host or with high cross-region transmission rates experienced stronger competition and extinction pressures than those infecting different hosts or with low cross-region transmission. Our study highlights how host and geographic barriers shape the competition, extinction, and coexistence patterns of H1N1 lineages and clades.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Andersson, Leif & Hoekstra, Hopi E. (2022). Gregor Johann Mendel and the development of modern evolutionary biology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 119(30). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2201327119. Full text in Research Archive
• Wang, Zengmiao; Liu, Yonghong; Li, Yapin; Wang, Guangze; Lourenço, José & Kraemer, Moritz [Show all 18 contributors for this article] (2022). The relationship between rising temperatures and malaria incidence in Hainan, China, from 1984 to 2010: a longitudinal cohort study. The Lancet Planetary Health. 6(4), p. e350–e358. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00039-0. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background The influence of rising global temperatures on malaria dynamics and distribution remains controversial, especially in central highland regions. We aimed to address this subject by studying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria and the effect of climate change on malaria transmission over 27 years in Hainan, an island province in China. Methods For this longitudinal cohort study, we used a decades-long dataset of malaria incidence reports from Hainan, China, to investigate the pattern of malaria transmission in Hainan relative to temperature and the incidence at increasing altitudes. Climatic data were obtained from the local meteorological stations in Hainan during 1984–2010 and the WorldClim dataset. A temperature-dependent R0 model and negative binomial generalised linear model were used to decipher the relationship between climate factors and malaria incidence in the tropical region. Findings Over the past few decades, the annual peak incidence has appeared earlier in the central highland regions but later in low-altitude regions in Hainan, China. Results from the temperature-dependent model showed that these long-term changes of incidence peak timing are linked to rising temperatures (of about 1·5°C). Further, a 1°C increase corresponds to a change in cases of malaria from –5·6% (95% CI –4·5 to –6·6) to –9·2% (95% CI –7·6 to –10·9) from the northern plain regions to the central highland regions during the rainy season. In the dry season, the change in cases would be 4·6% (95% CI 3·7 to 5·5) to 11·9% (95% CI 9·8 to 14·2) from low-altitude areas to high-altitude areas. Interpretation Our study empirically supports the idea that increasing temperatures can generate opposing effects on malaria dynamics for lowland and highland regions. This should be further investigated and incorporated into future modelling, disease burden calculations, and malaria control, with attention for central highland regions under climate change. Funding Scientific and Technological Innovation 2030: Major Project of New Generation Artificial Intelligence, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST, Research on Key Technologies of Plague Prevention and Control in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Dean, Katharine Rose & Bramanti, Barbara (2022). The End of Plague in Europe. Centaurus. Journal of the European Society for the History of Science. ISSN 0008-8994. 64(1), p. 61–72. doi: 10.1484/J.CNT.5.130126. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  At the Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES, University of Oslo), a group of biologists has been working for decades to disentangle the complex mechanisms of plague epizootics and epidemics in places where extant wild rodent reservoirs are present. These questions have been approached through ecological and climatic studies, mathematic modeling, as well as genomics and epidemiology. In 2013-2018, the Centre hosted the ERC-project MedPlag, which explored past pandemics through the lenses of additional disciplines, like archaeogenomics (ancient DNA), anthropology, archaeology, and evolution, always against the background of historical information. Here, we reflect on the end of plague in Europe based on the most recent studies on plague carried out in these different disciplines. Plague is an epidemic-prone disease that has caused millions of deaths throughout history.1 However, plague is primarily a wildlife disease that only occasionally spills over from hosts such as wild or domestic rodents to humans, through vectors like fleas or by direct contact (Fig. 1). The ecological conditions for spill-over events are well understood, as is the distribution of plague reservoirs (that is, places where resistant rodent hosts, their associated flea vectors, and the pathogen are present at the same time and constitute a potential source of infection) on all continents besides Europe and Australia.2 Thus, to understand plague introductions and dynamics in the human environment, we need to understand the plague dynamics in wild rodents. Yet, if we question the reasons for the end of plague epidemics and pandemics, the disappearance of local natural reservoirs might not be the only cause. Although scholars have proposed that historical pandemics in Europe were maintained in a Western European reservoir that caused local outbreaks until it disappeared, we suggest here some alternative reasons for the end of the historical plague pandemics.3

• Begum, Rawshan Ara; Lempert, Robert; Elham, Ali; Benjaminsen, Tor A; Bernauer, Thomas & Cramer, Wolfgang [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2022). Point of Departure and Key Concepts. In Pörtner, H. O.; roberts, d.c.; Tignor, M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Mintenbeck, Katja; Alegria, Andres; Craig, m; Langsdorf, Stefanie; Löschke, Sina; Moller, V; Okem, Andrew & Rama, Bardhyl (Ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9780521445832. p. 121–196. doi: 10.1017/9781009325844.003. Full text in Research Archive
• Fedorov, Vadim B.; Trucchi, Emiliano; Goropashnaya, Anna V. & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). Conflicting nuclear and mitogenome phylogenies reveal ancient mitochondrial replacement between two North American species of collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, D. hudsonius). Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution. ISSN 1055-7903. 168. doi: 10.1016/j.ympev.2022.107399. Full text in Research Archive
• Sun, Bin; Lu, Yonglong; Yang, Yifu; Yu, Mingzhao; Yuan, Jingjing & Yu, Ran [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2022). Urbanization affects spatial variation and species similarity of bird diversity distribution. Science Advances. 8(49). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ade3061. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Although cities are human-dominated systems, they provide habitat for many other species. Because of the lack of long-term observation data, it is challenging to assess the impacts of rapid urbanization on biodiversity in Global South countries. Using multisource data, we provided the first analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird distribution at the continental scale and found that the distributional hot spots of threatened birds overlapped greatly with urbanized areas, with only 3.90% of the threatened birds’ preferred land cover type in urban built-up areas. Bird ranges are being reshaped differently because of their different adaptations to urbanization. While green infrastructure can improve local bird diversity, the homogeneous urban environment also leads to species compositions being more similar across regions. More attention should be paid to narrow-range species for the formulation of biodiversity conservation strategies, and conservation actions should be further coordinated among cities from a global perspective.

• Sadykov, Alexander; Farnsworth, Keith; Sadykova, Dinara & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). The transfer function method reveals how age-structured populations respond to environmental fluctuations with serious implications for fisheries management. Population Ecology. ISSN 1438-3896. 64(3), p. 190–204. doi: 10.1002/1438-390X.12124. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Fluctuations in wild fish populations result from interaction between population dynamics and environmental forcing. Age-structured populations can magnify or dampen particular frequencies of these fluctuations, depending on life cycle and species traits. The transfer function (TF) gives a detailed analytical description of these phenomena. In this study, we derive a generalized form of TF to investigate the fluctuations of fish populations in response to species traits and environmental noise characteristics. We found that for semelparous species, fluctuations in fish stocks log-size are directly proportional to the recruitment elasticity and inversely proportional to the age of maturity, and for iteroparous species, fluctuations in fish stocks log-size are inversely proportional to the adult lifespan. In addition to the already known effect of cohort resonance (increased sensitivity to environmental fluctuations on cohort timescales in the elastic range of recruitment elasticity), we find a stock resonance effect (increased sensitivity to environmental fluctuations on double cohort timescales in the inelastic range of recruitment elasticity). These results were then applied to fisheries management. The relationship between fishing mortality and species-specific variability of fish stocks was formalized. In accordance with this analysis, precautionary levels for different catches were estimated.

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• Atshabar, Bakyt B.; Stenseth, Nils Christian & Fair, Jeanne M. (2024). Plague: The Ecology of Natural Foci. Springer Nature. ISBN 9783031588303. 183 p. Full text in Research Archive

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• Grødeland, Gunnveig; Pettersen, Frank O. & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2026). Vaksinepodden - Episode 43 - Svartedauen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Vi husker fra historietimene at Svartedauden kom med et skip til Bjørgvin i 1349. Hva var Svartedauden, og er denne bakterien fortsatt aktuell for en ny pandemi? I denne episoden har vi besøk av Nils Chr. Stenseth, som er professor i biologi og nestleder ved Senter for pandemi- og én-helseforskning ved Universitetet i Oslo. Stenseth har i en årrekke forsket på hvordan bakterien som forårsaket svartedauen - yersinia pestis – har beveget seg rundt i verden. Han har også forsket på hvordan klima kan påvirke både denne bakterien og hantavirus, for eksempel. I studio ellers er som vanlig overlege Frank Olav Pettersen fra Infeksjonsmedisinsk avdeling ved Ullevål, og Gunnveig Grødeland som er professor i immunologi og leder for Senter for pandemi- og en-helseforskning ved Universitetet i Oslo.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Jentoft, Sissel; Haugen, Thrond Oddvar; Bekkby, Trine; Walday, Mats Gunnar & Berg, Paul Ragnar [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2024). Økosystemet i Oslofjorden kollapser – vi trenger tiltak. Khrono.no. ISSN 1894-8995. Full text in Research Archive
• Chala, Desalegn; Endresen, Dag; Demissew, Sebsebe; Slaughter, Laura Ann; Johnsen, Einar Broch & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2024). Stop using racist, unethical, and inappropriate names in taxonomy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 121(45). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2415490121. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In this opinion piece, we address the growing debate surrounding the historical biases embedded in scientific names, which reflect colonialism, racism, sexism, and casteism. While many advocate for revising these names to align with modern ethical standards, concerns about disrupting binomial nomenclature stability persist. We argue that, in the digital era, effective solutions exist to manage name changes without significant disruption. Our paper proposes the creation of dedicated committees to handle names with clear ethical issues, the implementation of persistent identifiers to track changes, and the establishment of strict rules and guidelines against using scientific names with ethical issues and mechanisms to check for such problems before endorsing any new names. We emphasize that science must evolve to reflect contemporary values and not perpetuate historical injustices.

• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Bramanti, Barbara; Büntgen, Ulf; Fell, Henry G.; Cohn, Samuel & Sebbane, Florent [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2023). Reply to Alfani: Reconstructing past plague ecology to understand human history. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 120(11). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2300760120. Full text in Research Archive
• Xu, Lei; Wang, Qian; Yang, Ruifu; Ganbold, Dalantai; Tsogbadrakh, Nyamdorj & Dong, Kaixing [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2023). Author Correction: Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China (Scientific Reports, (2023), 13, 1, (11906), 10.1038/s41598-023-38966-1). Scientific Reports. 13(1). doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-41800-3. Full text in Research Archive
• Wang, Daoping; Bjørnstad, Ottar Nordal; Lei, Tianyang; Sun, Yida; Huo, Jingwen & Hao, Qi [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2023). Author Correction: Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility (Nature Communications, (2023), 14, 1, (1569), 10.1038/s41467-023-37075-x). Nature Communications. 14(1). doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41336-0. Full text in Research Archive
• Rees, Gareth; Büntgen, Ulf & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2023). Arctic science: resume collaborations with Russian scholars. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 613(243). doi: 10.1038/d41586-023-00008-1. Full text in Research Archive
• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Jentoft, Sissel; Moland, Even; Knutsen, Halvor; Haugen, Thrond Oddvar & Colman, JE [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2023). Langsiktig forskning og modige tiltak må til om vi skal redde Oslo­fjorden. Debattinnlegg i Khrono, 14.08.2023. khrono.no/langsiktig-forskning-og-modige-tiltak-ma-til-om-vi-skal-redde-oslofjorden/800689. Khrono.no. ISSN 1894-8995. Full text in Research Archive
• McGuire, Jenny L.; Lawing, A Michelle; Díaz, Sandra & Stenseth, Nils Christian (2023). The past as a lens for biodiversity conservation on a dynamically changing planet. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 120(7), p. 1–7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2201950120. Full text in Research Archive
• Stenseth, Nils Christian (2022). Reflections from the president of the International Society of Zoological Sciences: the zoology of zoonotic infectious diseases. Integrative Zoology. ISSN 1749-4869. 17(2), p. 328–329. doi: 10.1111/1749-4877.12631. Full text in Research Archive
• Oomen, Rebekah Alice; Knutsen, Halvor; Moland, Even; Olsen, Esben Moland; Knutsen, Jan Atle & Bernatchez, Louis [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2022). Nothing so boundless, nothing so patient: Obituary for Professor Jeffrey Alexander Hutchings (1958–2022). Fish and Fisheries. ISSN 1467-2960. 23(3), p. 519–521. doi: 10.1111/faf.12661. Full text in Research Archive
• Stenseth, Nils Christian; Andreassen, Karin Marie; Danielsen, Anne; Helgaker, Trygve; Jansen, Eystein & Moser, Edvard Ingjald [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2022). Grunnforskningen er truet. Full text in Research Archive
• Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Elliot, Nicholas B.; Ngene, Shadrack; Broekhuis, Femke; Braczkowski, Alexander & Lindsey, Peter [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2022). How “science” can facilitate the politicization of charismatic megafauna counts. 119(20). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2203244119. Full text in Research Archive
• Yang, Bao; Qin, Chun; Bräuning, Achim; Osborn, Timothy J.; Trouet, Valerie & Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier [Show all 21 contributors for this article] (2022). Reply to Weiss: Tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes suggest an increase in Asian monsoon rainfall at 4.2 ka BP. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 119(20). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2204067119. Full text in Research Archive

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