Terje Koren Berntsen

• Falk, Stefanie; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen; Emberson, Lisa D.; O’Neill, Connie & Stordal, Frode [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2022). Parameterization of the responses of subarctic European vegetation to key environmental variables for ozone risk assessment. Biogeosciences. ISSN 1726-4170.
• Blichner, Sara Marie; Sporre, Moa Kristina & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Reduced effective radiative forcing from cloud–aerosol interactions (ERFaci) with improved treatment of early aerosol growth in an Earth system model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 21(23), s. 17243–17265. doi: 10.5194/acp-21-17243-2021. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Falk, Stefanie; Vollsnes, Ane V.; Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen; Stordal, Frode & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Technical note: Quality assessment of ozone reanalysis products and gap-filling over subarctic Europe for vegetation risk mapping. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 21(20), s. 15647–15661. doi: 10.5194/acp-21-15647-2021.
• Blichner, Sara Marie; Sporre, Moa Kristina; Makkonen, Risto & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Implementing a sectional scheme for early aerosol growth from new particle formation in the Norwegian Earth System Model v2: comparison to observations and climate impacts. Geoscientific Model Development. ISSN 1991-959X. 14(6), s. 3335–3359. doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-3335-2021. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Horvath, Peter; Tang, Hui; Halvorsen, Rune; Stordal, Frode; Tallaksen, Lena M. & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). Improving the representation of high-latitude vegetation distribution in dynamic global vegetation models. Biogeosciences. ISSN 1726-4170. 18(1), s. 95–112. doi: 10.5194/bg-18-95-2021. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Vegetation is an important component in global ecosystems, affecting the physical, hydrological and biogeochemical properties of the land surface. Accordingly, the way vegetation is parameterized strongly influences predictions of future climate by Earth system models. To capture future spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover and its feedbacks to the climate system, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are included as important components of land surface models. Variation in the predicted vegetation cover from DGVMs therefore has large impacts on modelled radiative and non-radiative properties, especially over high-latitude regions. DGVMs are mostly evaluated by remotely sensed products and less often by other vegetation products or by in situ field observations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of three methods for spatial representation of present-day vegetation cover with respect to prediction of plant functional type (PFT) profiles – one based upon distribution models (DMs), one that uses a remote sensing (RS) dataset and a DGVM (CLM4.5BGCDV; Community Land Model 4.5 Bio-Geo-Chemical cycles and Dynamical Vegetation). While DGVMs predict PFT profiles based on physiological and ecological processes, a DM relies on statistical correlations between a set of predictors and the modelled target, and the RS dataset is based on classification of spectral reflectance patterns of satellite images. PFT profiles obtained from an independently collected field-based vegetation dataset from Norway were used for the evaluation. We found that RS-based PFT profiles matched the reference dataset best, closely followed by DM, whereas predictions from DGVMs often deviated strongly from the reference. DGVM predictions overestimated the area covered by boreal needleleaf evergreen trees and bare ground at the expense of boreal broadleaf deciduous trees and shrubs. Based on environmental predictors identified by DM as important, three new environmental variables (e.g. minimum temperature in May, snow water equivalent in October and precipitation seasonality) were selected as the threshold for the establishment of these high-latitude PFTs. We performed a series of sensitivity experiments to investigate if these thresholds improve the performance of the DGVM method. Based on our results, we suggest implementation of one of these novel PFT-specific thresholds (i.e. precipitation seasonality) in the DGVM method. The results highlight the potential of using PFT-specific thresholds obtained by DM in development of DGVMs in broader regions. Also, we emphasize the potential of establishing DMs as a reliable method for providing PFT distributions for evaluation of DGVMs alongside RS.

• Sporre, Moa Kristina; Blichner, Sara Marie; Schrödner, Roland; Karset, Inger Helene H.; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Van Noije, Twan [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2020). Large difference in aerosol radiative effects from BVOC-SOA treatment in three Earth system models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 20(14), s. 8953–8973. doi: 10.5194/acp-20-8953-2020. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Aamaas, Borgar; Stjern, Camilla Weum; Klimont, Zbigniew; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Samset, Bjørn Hallvard (2020). A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Earth System Dynamics. ISSN 2190-4979. 11(4), s. 977–993. doi: 10.5194/esd-11-977-2020. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Karset, Inger Helene H.; Gettelman, Andrew; Storelvmo, Trude; Alterskjær, Kari & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2020). Exploring Impacts of Size-Dependent Evaporation and Entrainment in a Global Model. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Space Physics. ISSN 2169-9380. 125(4). doi: 10.1029/2019JD031817. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Sand, Maria; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Ekman, Annica M.L.; Lewinschal, Anna & Hansson, Hans-Christen (2020). Surface temperature response to regional black carbon emissions: do location and magnitude matter? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 20(5), s. 3079–3089. doi: 10.5194/acp-20-3079-2020. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Samset, Bjørn Hallvard (2019). The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 19(24), s. 15235–15245. doi: 10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Sporre, Moa Kristina; Blichner, Sara Marie; Karset, Inger Helene H.; Makkonen, Risto & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2019). BVOC-aerosol-climate feedbacks investigated using NorESM. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 19(7), s. 4763–4782. doi: 10.5194/acp-19-4763-2019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Hansson, Hans-Christen; Sand, Maria; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Langner, Joakim (2019). Local and remote temperature response of regional SO2 emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 19(4), s. 2385–2403. doi: 10.5194/acp-19-2385-2019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Martin, Leo Celestin Paul; Nitzbon, Jan; Langer, Moritz; Boike, Julia & Lee, Hanna [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2019). Thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes represented with laterally coupled tiles in a land surface model. The Cryosphere. ISSN 1994-0416. 13(2), s. 591–609. doi: 10.5194/tc-13-591-2019. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Aldrin, Magne Tommy; Holden, Marit & Myhre, Gunnar (2018). Climate sensitivity estimates - Sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data. Earth System Dynamics. ISSN 2190-4979. 9(2), s. 879–894. doi: 10.5194/esd-9-879-2018. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Inferred effective climate sensitivity (ECSinf) is estimated using a method combining radiative forcing (RF) time series and several series of observed ocean heat content (OHC) and near-surface temperature change in a Bayesian framework using a simple energy balance model and a stochastic model. The model is updated compared to our previous analysis by using recent forcing estimates from IPCC, including OHC data for the deep ocean, and extending the time series to 2014. In our main analysis, the mean value of the estimated ECSinf is 2.0 ∘C, with a median value of 1.9 ∘C and a 90 % credible interval (CI) of 1.2–3.1 ∘C. The mean estimate has recently been shown to be consistent with the higher values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by climate models. The transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to have a mean value of 1.4 ∘C (90 % CI 0.9–2.0 ∘C), and in our main analysis the posterior aerosol effective radiative forcing is similar to the range provided by the IPCC. We show a strong sensitivity of the estimated ECSinf to the choice of a priori RF time series, excluding pre-1950 data and the treatment of OHC data. Sensitivity analysis performed by merging the upper (0–700 m) and the deep-ocean OHC or using only one OHC dataset (instead of four in the main analysis) both give an enhancement of the mean ECSinf by about 50 % from our best estimate.

• Karset, Inger Helene H.; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Storelvmo, Trude; Alterskjær, Kari; Grini, Alf & Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2018). Strong impacts on aerosol indirect effects from historical oxidant changes. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 18(10), s. 7669–7690. doi: 10.5194/acp-18-7669-2018. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Tanaka, Katsumasa; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Aamaas, Borgar & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2018). Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326. 13(4). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab18c. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P & Collins, William J (2017). Regional temperature change potentials for short-lived climate forcers based on radiative forcing from multiple models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 17(17), s. 10795–10809. doi: 10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Bock, Lisa; Burkhardt, Ulrike & Fuglestvedt, Jan S. [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2017). Emission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviation. Earth System Dynamics. ISSN 2190-4979. 8(3), s. 547–563. doi: 10.5194/esd-8-547-2017. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Sand, Maria; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Balkanski, Yves; Bauer, Susanne; Bellouin, Nicolas & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 29 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2017). Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 17(19), s. 12197–12218. doi: 10.5194/acp-17-12197-2017. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Samset, Bjørn Hallvard (2017). Sensitivity of black carbon concentrations and climate impact to aging and scavenging in OsloCTM2-M7. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 17(9), s. 6003–6022. doi: 10.5194/acp-17-6003-2017. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Accurate representation of black carbon (BC) concentrations in climate models is a key prerequisite for understanding its net climate impact. BC aging and scavenging are treated very differently in current models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of three-dimensional (3-D), temporally resolved BC concentrations to perturbations to individual model processes in the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2–M7. The main goals are to identify processes related to aerosol aging and scavenging where additional observational constraints may most effectively improve model performance, in particular for BC vertical profiles, and to give an indication of how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in climate impacts. Coupling OsloCTM2 with the microphysical aerosol module M7 allows us to investigate aging processes in more detail than possible with a simpler bulk parameterization. Here we include, for the first time in this model, a treatment of condensation of nitric acid on BC. Using kernels, we also estimate the range of radiative forcing and global surface temperature responses that may result from perturbations to key tunable parameters in the model. We find that BC concentrations in OsloCTM2–M7 are particularly sensitive to convective scavenging and the inclusion of condensation by nitric acid. The largest changes are found at higher altitudes around the Equator and at low altitudes over the Arctic. Convective scavenging of hydrophobic BC, and the amount of sulfate required for BC aging, are found to be key parameters, potentially reducing bias against HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) flight-based measurements by 60 to 90  %. Even for extensive tuning, however, the total impact on global-mean surface temperature is estimated to less than 0.04 K. Similar results are found when nitric acid is allowed to condense on the BC aerosols. We conclude, in line with previous studies, that a shorter atmospheric BC lifetime broadly improves the comparison with measurements over the Pacific. However, we also find that the model–measurement discrepancies can not be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or parameter. Model development therefore needs to be focused on improvements to individual processes, supported by a broad range of observational and experimental data, rather than tuning of individual, effective parameters such as the global BC lifetime.

• Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Peters, Glen Philip; Andrew, Robbie & Allen, Myles [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2017). Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326. 12(2). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5b0a. Vis sammendrag

  The politically contentious issue of calculating countries' contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the 'Brazilian Proposal', industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to their historical contributions to warming. This proposal was based on the assumption that the political process would lead to a global top-down agreement. The Paris Agreement changed the role of historical responsibilities. Whereas the agreement refers to equity principles, differentiation of mitigation efforts is delegated to each country, as countries will submit new national contributions every five years without any international negotiation. It is likely that considerations of historical contributions and distributive fairness will continue to play a key role, but increasingly so in a national setting. Contributions to warming can be used as a background for negotiations to inform and justify positions, and may also be useful for countries' own assessment of what constitutes reasonable and fair contributions to limiting warming. Despite the fact that the decision from COP21 explicitly rules out compensation in the context of loss and damage, it is likely that considerations of historical responsibility will also play a role in future discussions. However, methodological choices have substantial impacts on calculated contributions to warming, including rank-ordering of contributions, and thus support the view that there is no single correct answer to the question of how much each country has contributed. There are fundamental value-related and ethical questions that cannot be answered through a single set of calculated contributions. Thus, analyses of historical contributions should not present just one set of results, but rather present a spectrum of results showing how the calculated contributions vary with a broad set of choices. Our results clearly expose some of the core issues related to climate responsibility.

• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Gisnås, Kjersti; Westermann, Sebastian & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2017). A Tiling Approach to Represent Subgrid Snow Variability in Coupled Land Surface–Atmosphere Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology. ISSN 1525-755X. 18(1), s. 49–63. doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0026.1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Koffi, Brigitte; Schulz, Michael; Bréon, François-Marie; Dentener, Frank; Steensen, Birthe Marie Rødssæteren & Griesfeller, Jan [Vis alle 33 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2016). Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-897X. 121(12), s. 7254–7283. doi: 10.1002/2015JD024639. Vis sammendrag

  The ability of 11 models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model intercomparison initiative (AeroCom II), is assessed and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded data set of aerosol extinction profiles built for this purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 subcontinental regions show that five models improved, whereas three degraded in reproducing the interregional variability in Zα0–6 km, the mean extinction height diagnostic, as computed from the CALIOP aerosol profiles over the 0–6 km altitude range for each studied region and season. While the models' performance remains highly variable, the simulation of the timing of the Zα0–6 km peak season has also improved for all but two models from AeroCom Phase I to Phase II. The biases in Zα0–6 km are smaller in all regions except Central Atlantic, East Asia, and North and South Africa. Most of the models now underestimate Zα0–6 km over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Zα0–6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the performance and evolution of the individual models and for the intermodel diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties contributing to the differences between the simulations and observations.

• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Dunse, Thorben; Collier, E.; Schuler, Thomas; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Kohler, Jack [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2016). The climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers: A 10-year simulation with a coupled atmosphere-glacier mass balance model. The Cryosphere. ISSN 1994-0416. 10(3), s. 1089–1104. doi: 10.5194/tc-10-1089-2016. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P & Bellouin, Nicolas (2016). Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 16(11), s. 7451–7468. doi: 10.5194/acp-16-7451-2016. Vis sammendrag

  For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry–climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October) and winter (November–April) for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs), which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature change potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies. For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for the fact that the magnitude of emission metrics for different species in a given model is correlated. For the ramping emission metrics, the values are generally larger than for pulse or sustained emissions, which holds for all SLCFs. For SLCFs mitigation policies, the dependency of metric values on the region and season of emission should be considered.

• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Dunse, Thorben; Collier, E.; Schuler, Thomas; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Kohler, Jack [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2015). Simulating the climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers from 2003 to 2013 with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-glacier model. The Cryosphere Discussions. ISSN 1994-0432. 9, s. 5775–5815. doi: 10.5194/tcd-9-5775-2015. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Stohl, Andreas; Aamaas, Borgar; Amann, M; Baker, LH; Bellouin, N & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 40 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2015). Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 15(18), s. 10529–10566. doi: 10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80%, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22±0.09K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22% to this response and CH4 78%. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90% of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted spec

• Sand, Maria; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Salzen, K. von; Flanner, Mark G.; Langner, Joakim & Victor, David G. (2015). Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers. Nature Climate Change. ISSN 1758-678X. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2880. Vis sammendrag

  There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice–albedo and temperature feedbacks. Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs 9,10). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality11. This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (±0.17) K in 2050.

• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Boike, Julia; Etzelmuller, Bernd; Kristjansson, Jon Egill & Maturilli, Marion [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2015). A comparison between simulated and observed surface energy balance at the Svalbard Archipelago. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. ISSN 1558-8424. 54(5), s. 1102–1119. doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0080.1.
• Eckhardt, Sabine; Quennehen, B.; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Cherian, Regimon & Christensen, J. [Vis alle 35 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2015). Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: A multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 15(16), s. 9413–9433. doi: 10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of two years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry-transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry-climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC/rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to past comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January-March underestimated by 59 and 37% for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44% for July–September), but with over- as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is three times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modelling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

• Pedersen, Christina Alsvik; Gallet, J.-C.; Ström, J.; Gerland, Sebastian; Hudson, S.R. & Forsström, S. [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2015). In situ observations of black carbon in snow and the corresponding spectral surface albedo reduction. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Biogeosciences. ISSN 2169-8953. 120(4), s. 1476–1489. doi: 10.1002/2014JD022407.
• Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Dalsøren, Stig Bjørløw; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Myhre, Gunnar & Hodnebrog, Øivind [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). Climate penalty for shifting shipping to the Arctic. Environmental Science and Technology. ISSN 0013-936X. 48(22), s. 13273–13279. doi: 10.1021/es502379d. Vis sammendrag

  The changing climate in the Arctic opens new shipping routes. A shift to shorter Arctic transit will, however, incur a climate penalty over the first one and a half centuries. We investigate the net climate effect of diverting a segment of Europe–Asia container traffic from the Suez to an Arctic transit route. We find an initial net warming for the first one-and-a-half centuries, which gradually declines and transitions to net cooling as the effects of CO2 reductions become dominant, resulting in climate mitigation only in the long term. Thus, the possibilities for shifting shipping to the Arctic confront policymakers with the question of how to weigh a century-scale warming with large uncertainties versus a long-term climate benefit from CO2 reductions.

• Tsigaridis, K; Daskalakis, N; Kanakidou, M; Adams, Peter J.; Artaxo, Paulo & Bahadur, R [Vis alle 71 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 14(19), s. 10845–10895. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014. Vis sammendrag

  This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models

• Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Myhre, Gunnar; Herber, Andreas; Kondo, Yutaka; Li, Shao-Meng & Moteki, Nobuhiro [Vis alle 31 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). Modelled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 14(22), s. 12465–12477. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-12465-2014. Vis sammendrag

  Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long-range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present-day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparison. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modelled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy

• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Fuglestvedt, Jan S. (2014). Climate impacts of short-lived climate forcers versus CO2 from biodiesel: A case of the EU on-road sector. Environmental Science and Technology. ISSN 0013-936X. 48(24), s. 14445–14454. doi: 10.1021/es505308g. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Biofuels are proposed to play an important role in several mitigation strategies to meet future CO2 emission targets for the transport sector but remain controversial due to significant uncertainties in net impacts on environment, society, and climate. A switch to biofuels can also affect short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which provide significant contributions to the net climate impact of transportation. We quantify the radiative forcing (RF) and global-mean temperature response over time to EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs and the impact of 20% (B20) and 100% (B100) replacement of fossil diesel by biodiesel. SLCFs are compared to impacts of on-road CO2 using different approaches from existing literature to account for biodiesel CO2. Given the best estimates for changes in emissions when replacing fossil diesel with biodiesel, the net positive RF from EU on-road fossil diesel SLCFs of 3.4 mW/m2 is reduced by 15% and 80% in B20 and B100, respectively. Over time the warming of SLCFs is likely small compared to biodiesel CO2 impacts. However, SLCFs may be relatively more important for the total warming than in the fossil fuel case if biodiesel from feedstock with very short rotation periods and low land-use-change impacts replaces a high fraction of fossil diesel.

• Williams, JE; Hodnebrog, Øivind; van, Velthoven, PFJ; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Dessens, O & Gauss, Michael [Vis alle 11 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). The influence of future non-mitigated road transport emissions on regional ozone exceedences at global scale. Atmospheric Environment. ISSN 1352-2310. 89, s. 633–641. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.041. Vis sammendrag

  Road Transport emissions (RTE) are a significant anthropogenic global NOx source responsible for enhancing the chemical production of tropospheric ozone (O3) in the lower troposphere. Here we analyse a multi-model ensemble which adopts the realistic SRES A1B emission scenario and a “policy-failure” scenario for RTE (A1B_HIGH) for the years 2000, 2025 and 2050. Analysing the regional trends in RTE NOx estimates shows by 2025 that differences of 0.2–0.3 Tg N yr−1 occur for most of the world regions between the A1B and A1B_HIGH estimates, except for Asia where there is a larger difference of ∼1.4 Tg N yr−1. For 2050 these differences fall to ∼0.1 Tg N yr−1, with shipping emissions becoming as important as RTE. Analysing the seasonality in near-surface O3 from the multi-model ensemble monthly mean values shows a large variability in the projected changes between different regions. For Western Europe and the Eastern US although the peak O3 mixing ratios decrease by ∼10% in 2050, there is an associated degradation during wintertime due to less direct titration from nitric oxide. For regions such as Eastern China, although total anthropogenic NOx emissions are reduced from 2025 to 2050, there is no real improvement in peak O3 levels. By normalizing the seasonal ensemble means of near-surface O3 (0–500 m) with the recommended European Commission (EC) exposure limit to derive an exceedence ratio (ER), we show that ER values greater than 1.0 occur across a wide area in the Northern Hemisphere for boreal summer using the year 2000 emissions. When adopting the future A1B_HIGH estimates, the Middle East exhibits the worst regional air quality, closely followed by Asia. For these regions the area of exceedence (ER > 1.0) for 2025 is ∼40% and ∼25% of the total area of each region, respectively. Comparing simulations employing the various scenarios shows that unmitigated RTE increases the area of exceedence in the Middle East by ∼6% and, for Asia, by ∼2% of the total regional areas. For the USA the area of exceedence approximately doubles in 2025 as a result of unmitigated RTE, with the most exceedences occurring in the southern USA. The effects across the various regions implies that unmitigated RTE would have a detrimental effect on regional health for 2025, and potentially offset the benefits introduced by mitigating e.g. international shipping emissions. By 2050 the further mitigation of non-transport emissions results in much cleaner air meaning that mitigation of RTE is not critical for achieving the defined limits in many world regions.

• Jiao, C; Flanner, M; Balkanski, Y; Bauer, S.; Bellouin, N & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 29 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). An aerocom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 14(5), s. 2399–2417. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-2399-2014. Vis sammendrag

  Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Heyes, Chris; Klimont, Zbigniew & Samset, Bjørn Hallvard (2014). Global and regional climate impacts of black carbon and co-emitted species from the on-road diesel sector. Atmospheric Environment. ISSN 1352-2310. 98, s. 50–58. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.08.033. Vis sammendrag

  Diesel vehicles are a significant source of black carbon (BC) and ozone precursors, which are important contributors to climate warming, degrade air quality and harm human health. Reducing diesel emissions could mitigate near-term climate change with significant co-benefits. This study quantifies the global and regional climate impacts of BC and co-emitted short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from present-day on-road diesel vehicles, as well as future impacts following a current legislation emission scenario. Atmospheric concentrations are calculated by the chemical transport model OsloCTM2. The following radiative forcing (RF) and equilibrium surface temperature responses are estimated. For year 2010 on-road diesel emissions we estimate a global-mean direct RF from BC of 44 m W/m2 and an equilibrium surface temperature response of 59 mK, including the impact of BC deposition on snow. Accounting for cooling and warming impacts of co-emitted SLCFs results in a net global-mean RF and warming of 28 mW/m2 and 48 mK, respectively. Using the concept of Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), we find significant geographical differences in the responses to regional emissions. Accounting for the vertical sensitivities of the forcing/response relation amplifies these differences. In terms of individual source regions, emissions in Europe give the largest regional contribution to equilibrium warming caused by year 2010 on-road diesel BC, while Russia is most important for Arctic warming per unit emission. The largest contribution to warming caused by the year 2050 on-road diesel sector is from emissions in South Asia, followed by East Asia and the Middle East. Hence, in regions where current legislation is not sufficient to outweigh the expected growth in activity, accelerated policy implementation is important for further future mitigation.

• Isaksen, Ivar S A; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Dalsøren, Stig Bjørløw; Eleftheratos, K.; Orsolini, Yvan & Rognerud, Bjørg [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). Atmospheric Ozone and Methane in a Changing Climate. Atmosphere. ISSN 2073-4433. 5(3), s. 518–535. doi: 10.3390/atmos5030518. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Ozone and methane are chemically active climate-forcing agents affected by climate–chemistry interactions in the atmosphere. Key chemical reactions and processes affecting ozone and methane are presented. It is shown that climate-chemistry interactions have a significant impact on the two compounds. Ozone, which is a secondary compound in the atmosphere, produced and broken down mainly in the troposphere and stratosphre through chemical reactions involving atomic oxygen (O), NOx compounds (NO, NO2), CO, hydrogen radicals (OH, HO2), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and chlorine (Cl, ClO) and bromine (Br, BrO). Ozone is broken down through changes in the atmospheric distribution of the afore mentioned compounds. Methane is a primary compound emitted from different sources (wetlands, rice production, livestock, mining, oil and gas production and landfills).Methane is broken down by the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH is significantly affected by methane emissions, defined by the feedback factor, currently estimated to be in the range 1.3 to 1.5, and increasing with increasing methane emission. Ozone and methane changes are affected by NOx emissions. While ozone in general increase with increases in NOx emission, methane is reduced, due to increases in OH. Several processes where current and future changes have implications for climate-chemistry interactions are identified. It is also shown that climatic changes through dynamic processes could have significant impact on the atmospheric chemical distribution of ozone and methane, as we can see through the impact of Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Modeling studies indicate that increases in ozone could be more pronounced toward the end of this century. Thawing permafrost could lead to important positive feedbacks in the climate system. Large amounts of organic material are stored in the upper layers of the permafrost in the yedoma deposits in Siberia, where 2 to 5% of the deposits could be organic material. During thawing of permafrost, parts of the organic material that is deposited could be converted to methane. Furthermore, methane stored in deposits under shallow waters in the Arctic have the potential to be released in a future warmer climate with enhanced climate impact on methane, ozone and stratospheric water vapor. Studies performed by several groups show that the transport sectors have the potential for significant impacts on climate-chemistry interactions. There are large uncertainties connected to ozone and methane changes from the transport sector, and to methane release and climate impact during permafrost thawing.

• Grewe, Volker; Frömming, Christine; Matthes, Sigrun; Brinkop, Sabine; Ponater, Michael & Dietmüller, Simone [Vis alle 17 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). Aircraft routing with minimal climate impact: The REACT4C climate cost function modelling approach (V1.0). Geoscientific Model Development. ISSN 1991-959X. 7(1), s. 175–201. doi: 10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014. Vis sammendrag

  In addition to CO2, the climate impact of aviation is strongly influenced by non-CO2 emissions, such as nitrogen oxides, influencing ozone and methane, and water vapour, which can lead to the formation of persistent contrails in ice-supersaturated regions. Because these non-CO2 emission effects are characterised by a short lifetime, their climate impact largely depends on emission location and time; that is to say, emissions in certain locations (or times) can lead to a greater climate impact (even on the global average) than the same emission in other locations (or times). Avoiding these climate-sensitive regions might thus be beneficial to climate. Here, we describe a modelling chain for investigating this climate impact mitigation option. This modelling chain forms a multi-step modelling approach, starting with the simulation of the fate of emissions released at a certain location and time (time-region grid points). This is performed with the chemistry–climate model EMAC, extended via the two submodels AIRTRAC (V1.0) and CONTRAIL (V1.0), which describe the contribution of emissions to the composition of the atmosphere and to contrail formation, respectively. The impact of emissions from the large number of time-region grid points is efficiently calculated by applying a Lagrangian scheme. EMAC also includes the calculation of radiative impacts, which are, in a second step, the input to climate metric formulas describing the global climate impact of the emission at each time-region grid point. The result of the modelling chain comprises a four-dimensional data set in space and time, which we call climate cost functions and which describes the global climate impact of an emission at each grid point and each point in time. In a third step, these climate cost functions are used in an air traffic simulator (SAAM) coupled to an emission tool (AEM) to optimise aircraft trajectories for the North Atlantic region. Here, we describe the details of this new modelling approach and show some example results. A number of sensitivity analyses are performed to motivate the settings of individual parameters. A stepwise sanity check of the results of the modelling chain is undertaken to demonstrate the plausibility of the climate cost functions.

• Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Aldrin, Magne Tommy; Holden, Marit & Myhre, Gunnar (2014). A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series. Earth System Dynamics. ISSN 2190-4979. 5(1), s. 139–175. doi: 10.5194/esd-5-139-2014. Vis sammendrag

  Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is constrained based on observed near-surface temperature change, changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and detailed radiative forcing (RF) time series from pre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanism. The RF time series are linked to the observations of OHC and temperature change through an energy balance model (EBM) and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS and other unknown parameters from the data. For the net anthropogenic RF the posterior mean in 2010 is 2.0 Wm−2, with a 90% credible interval (C.I.) of 1.3 to 2.8 Wm−2, excluding present-day total aerosol effects (direct + indirect) stronger than −1.7 Wm−2. The posterior mean of the ECS is 1.8 °C, with 90% C.I. ranging from 0.9 to 3.2 °C, which is tighter than most previously published estimates. We find that using three OHC data sets simultaneously and data for global mean temperature and OHC up to 2010 substantially narrows the range in ECS compared to using less updated data and only one OHC data set. Using only one OHC set and data up to 2000 can produce comparable results as previously published estimates using observations in the 20th century, including the heavy tail in the probability function. The analyses show a significant contribution of internal variability on a multi-decadal scale to the global mean temperature change. If we do not explicitly account for long-term internal variability, the 90% C.I. is 40% narrower than in the main analysis and the mean ECS becomes slightly lower, which demonstrates that the uncertainty in ECS may be severely underestimated if the method is too simple. In addition to the uncertainties represented through the estimated probability density functions, there may be uncertainties due to limitations in the treatment of the temporal development in RF and structural uncertainties in the EBM.

• Forsström, S.; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Ström, Johan; Pedersen, CA & Hudson, S.R. [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Elemental carbon measurements in European Arctic snow packs. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-897X. 118(24), s. 13,614–13,627. doi: 10.1002/2013JD019886. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bond, Tami C.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Fahey, David W.; Forster, Piers M.; Berntsen, Terje Koren & DeAngelo, Benjamin J. [Vis alle 31 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-897X. 118(11), s. 5380–5552. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50171.
• Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Fuglestvedt, Jan S. & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2013). Mode, Load, And Specific Climate Impact from Passenger Trips. Environmental Science and Technology. ISSN 0013-936X. 47(14), s. 7608–7614. doi: 10.1021/es4003718.
• Sand, Maria; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Seland, Øyvind & Kristjansson, Jon Egill (2013). Arctic surface temperature change to emissions of black carbon within Arctic or midlatitudes. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-897X. 118(14), s. 7788–7798. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50613.
• Eide, Magnus Strandmyr; Dalsøren, Stig Bjørløw; Endresen, Øyvind; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Myhre, Gunnar & Fuglestvedt, Jan S. [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Reducing CO2 from shipping - do non-CO2 effects matter? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 13(8), s. 4183–4201. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013.
• Khodayari, Arezoo; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Olsen, Seth C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Lund, Marianne Tronstad [Vis alle 12 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Intercomparison of the capabilities of simplified climate models to project the effects of aviation CO2 on climate. Atmospheric Environment. ISSN 1352-2310. 75, s. 321–328. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.03.055.
• Stevenson, D.S.; Young, P.J.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D.T. & Voulgarakis, A. [Vis alle 35 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 13(6), s. 3063–3085. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410mWm−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation) in RFs of ±17 %. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of ±10 %. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3 %. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12 %), nitrogen oxides (31±9 %), carbon monoxide (15±3 %) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9±2 %); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42mWm−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mWm−2; relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

• Lee, Y.H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M.G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D.T. & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 26 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 13(5), s. 2607–2634. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019Wm−2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1Wm−2) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

• Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Myhre, Gunnar; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 24 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Black carbon vertical profiles strongly affect its radiative forcing uncertainty. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 13(5), s. 2423–2434. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-2423-2013. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

• Sand, Maria; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Kay, J.E.; Lamarque, J. F.; Seland, Øyvind & Kirkevåg, Alf (2013). The Arctic response to remote and local forcing of black carbon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 13(1), s. 211–224. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-211-2013.
• Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 41 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). ISSN 1680-7316. 13(4), s. 1853–1877. doi: 10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02Wm−2, with a mean of −0.27Wm−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information from the other AeroCom models reduces the range and slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35Wm−2. Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results.

• Isaksen, Ivar S A; Zerefos, C; Wang, W-C; Balis, D.; Eleftheratos, K. & Rognerud, Bjørg [Vis alle 15 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2012). Attribution of the Arctic ozone column deficit in March 2011. Geophysical Research Letters. ISSN 0094-8276. 39(L24810). doi: 10.1029/2012GL053876. Vis sammendrag

  Arctic column ozone reached record low values (∼310 DU) during March of 2011, exposing Arctic ecosystems to enhanced UV-B. We identify the cause of this anomaly using the Oslo CTM2 atmospheric chemistry model driven by ECMWF meteorology to simulate Arctic ozone from 1998 through 2011. CTM2 successfully reproduces the variability in column ozone, from week to week, and from year to year, correctly identifying 2011 as an extreme anomaly over the period. By comparing parallel model simulations, one with all Arctic ozone chemistry turned off on January 1, we find that chemical ozone loss in 2011 is enhanced relative to previous years, but it accounted for only 23% of the anomaly. Weakened transport of ozone from middle latitudes, concurrent with an anomalously strong polar vortex, was the primary cause of the low ozone When the zonal winds relaxed in mid-March 2011, Arctic column ozone quickly recovered.

• Søvde, Ole Amund; Prather, M.J.; Isaksen, Ivar S A; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Stordal, Frode & Zhu, Xin [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2012). The chemical transport model Oslo CTM3. Geoscientific Model Development. ISSN 1991-959X. 5, s. 1441–1469. doi: 10.5194/gmd-5-1441-2012. Vis sammendrag

  We present here the global chemical transport model Oslo CTM3, an update of the Oslo CTM2. The update comprises a faster transport scheme, an improved wet scavenging scheme for large scale rain, updated photolysis rates and a new lightning parameterization. Oslo CTM3 is better parallelized and allows for stable, large time steps for advection, enabling more complex or high spatial resolution simulations. A new treatment of the horizontal distribution of lightning is presented and found to compare well with measurements. The vertical distribution of lightning is updated and found to be a large contributor to CTM2–CTM3 differences, producing more NOx in the tropical middle troposphere, and less at the surface and at high altitudes. Compared with Oslo CTM2, Oslo CTM3 is faster, more capable and has better conceptual models for scavenging, vertical transport and fractional cloud cover. CTM3 captures stratospheric O3 better than CTM2, but shows minor improvements in terms of matching atmospheric observations in the troposphere. Use of the same meteorology to drive the two models shows that some features related to transport are better resolved by the CTM3, such as polar cap transport, while features like transport close to the vortex edge are resolved better in the Oslo CTM2 due to its required shorter transport time step. The longer transport time steps in CTM3 result in larger errors, e.g., near the jets, and when necessary the errors can be reduced by using a shorter time step. Using a time step of 30 min, the new transport scheme captures both large-scale and small-scale variability in atmospheric circulation and transport, with no loss of computational efficiency. We present a version of the new transport scheme which has been specifically tailored for polar studies, resulting in more accurate polar cap transport than the standard CTM3 transport, confirmed by comparison to satellite observations. Inclusion of tropospheric sulfur chemistry and nitrate aerosols in CTM3 is shown to be important to reproduce tropospheric O3, OH and the CH4 lifetime well.

• Tol, Richard S J; Berntsen, Terje Koren; O’Neill, Brian C; Fuglestvedt, Jan S. & Shine, Keith P (2012). A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326. 7(4). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044006. Vis sammendrag

  Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

• Koffi, Brigitte; Schulz, Michael; Bréon, Francois-Marie; Griesfeller, Jan; Winker, David & Balkanski, Yves [Vis alle 24 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2012). Application of the CALIOP layer product to evaluate the vertical distribution of aerosols estimated by global models: AeroCom phase I results. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-897X. 117. doi: 10.1029/2011JD016858. Vis sammendrag

  The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007–2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Zα) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0–6 km and 0–10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Zα climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Zα than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Zα is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Zα is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

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• Shetty, Shobitha; Schneider, Philipp; Stebel, Kerstin; Hamer, Paul David; Kylling, Arve & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2022). Synergy of Sentinel 5P and ground measurements to estimate surface NO2 concentration using Machine Learning models.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud Berglen; Falk, Stefanie; Stordal, Frode & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2022). Ozone-induced early senescence studied in Trifolium repens genotypes from subarctic grasslands . Vis sammendrag

  Previous experiments have shown that several European clovers may develop more visible injuries due to ozone when the night is not dark. At high latitudes, the summer nights are bright, giving the background for the question whether plants adapted to midnight sun also have this response of being more easily injured by ozone when the night is not dark. The plants included in the present experiment are expected to be adapted to light exposure during night, since there is midnight sun from the time they melt out of the snow cover in spring until the end of July, in the sites where they were collected. This constitutes about 50 % of the growing season for grassland species in these areas. Cuttings of two genotypes of white clover (Trifolium repens) collected in two sites in subarctic Norway were cultivated under controlled environment conditions. Using a factorial design, the plants were exposed to two different night-time light conditions and two different ozone exposure levels. We studied the development of visible injuries, foliar chlorophyll concentrations and N concentration as signs of premature senescence due to ozone.

• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Falk, Stefanie; Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen; Stordal, Frode; Kauserud, Håvard & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Luftforurensning og klimaendringer gir dobbelt stress for vegetasjonen. Naturen. ISSN 0028-0887. 5, s. 265–271. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-3118-2021-05-10.
• Shetty, Shobitha; Schneider, Philipp; Stebel, Kerstin; Kylling, Arve; Hamer, Paul David & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Combining Sentinel-5P and Ground Measurements to estimate surface NO2 Concentrations over Europe Using Machine Learning Models.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Falk, Stefanie; Berglen eriksen, Aud; Emberson, Lisa D.; O’Neill, Connie & Stordal, Frode [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). Model parameterisation of subarctic vegetation in climate models, an example from an ozone effect study.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Stordal, Frode; Falk, Stefanie; Eriksen, Aud Berglen; Kauserud, Håvard & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Field and lab experiments, plant ecophysiology starting from The double punch.
• Narayanappa, Devaraju; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Stordal, Frode (2021). Simulated runoff and river discharge in CTSM version 5.1: Evaluation over Scandinavia. Vis sammendrag

  Reliable representation of terrestrial water and energy balance in global climate models is crucial to better understand the response of the hydrological cycle to climate change. Though the current generation of global climate models have improved substantially, they still fail to represent all terrestrial processes adequately. Specifically simulating runoff and river discharge are important for many applications such as water resources management and future water availability projections. In this study, we use the land surface model component of the Norwegian Earth System Model which is Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate against observation-based estimates of runoff and river discharge data of selected catchments data. For the latest three decades (1985-2015), we compare the CLM5 simulated grid-scale runoff with observation-based gridded runoff estimates (E-RUN version 1.1) and with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). CLM5 is also capable of simulating river discharge to the oceans through the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) and is applicable across local, regional, and global scales. The 3-hourly 0.5o meteorological forcing for CLM5 was provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project version 3v1, an international land surface modeling project. We also compare the simulated river discharge data with selected station discharge data in Norway and Sweden. I will present the detailed evaluation results at the conference. Briefly, the evaluation analysis suggests the further calibration to hydrologic parameters is needed to improve simulations of runoff and river discharge, especially subsurface runoff.

• Falk, Stefanie; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud E Berglen; Emberson, Lisa D.; O'Neill, Connie & Stordal, Frode [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). Charakterisierung der subarktischen Ökozone hinsichtlich der Modellierung von Ozonverschmutzung und Klimarisiken. Vis sammendrag

  https://www.dpg-verhandlungen.de/year/2021/conference/smuk/part/up/session/5/contribution/2?lang=en

• Falk, Stefanie; Lombardozzi, Danica; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Stordal, Frode; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen (2021). OzoneLUNA: Ozone damage in CLM revisited.
• Falk, Stefanie; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Emberson, Lisa D.; O'Neill, Connie; Eriksen, Aud E Berglen & Stordal, Frode [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). Characterizing subarctic biomes for land surface modeling of pollution and climate risk. Vis sammendrag

  Here we assess the importance of characterization of key meteorological variables and air pollution profiles on the modeled susceptibility of subarctic vegetation to ozone. Changes in climate (e.g. temperature, water availability) will manifest in both direct and indirect effects influencing the species' sensitivity to air pollution. A likely increase in frequency of persistent heatwaves in the future, will inflict heat related stress while generating favorable conditions for the formation of ambient air ozone, e.g. due to wildfires. We have monitored ambient air ozone concentrations at the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO) Environment Centre Svanhovd in Northern Norway in the vegetation period 2018/19. Due to data acquisition problems, ozone concentrations for two weeks in July 2018 were missing from our record. We present a reconstruction based on probability density function with respect to the Swedish and Finnish atmospheric monitoring sites and compare with available surface ozone products for the region. Over all, ozone concentrations did not differ significantly between the two years. While temperatures and global irradiance diverged substantially from the multi annual mean precipitation varied only to some extend. We investigate the difference in uptake of ozone using the DO3SE model, for typical vegetation at the location. We find that bespoke parameterization for subarctic vegetation is essential for an accurate estimation of Phototoxic Ozone Dose (POD) and an assessment of damage risk. Accurate estimates of the start and length of growing season are also crucial. We find that temperature and its derivative vapor pressure deficit are likely the most important climate variables while the variability of ozone concentration within climatologically reasonable limits plays a minor role. The use of subarctic parameterization suggests an improvement in risk assessment as POD values are increased in 2018; corroborated by evidence of visible injury in the Svanhovd ozone garden.

• Bryn, Anders; Dalen, Thea Grobstok; Finne, Eirik Aasmo; Heiberg, Hanne; Keetz, Lasse Torben & Nilsen, Irene Brox [Vis alle 30 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). Natur i endring - samspillet mellom klima og økosystemene.
• Tang, Hui; Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Finne, Eirik Aasmo; Althuizen, Inge; Fisher, Rosie A. & Tømmervik, Hans [Vis alle 14 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). The impact of moss and lichen on hydrological cycle at surface: a study using CLM-FATES.
• Mužić, Iris; Vestin, Patrik; Lindroth, Anders; Mölder, Meelis; Biermann, Tobias & Heliasz, Michal [Vis alle 11 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2021). MSc: Changes in radiative forcing due to clear-cutting in Sweden; PhD: The role of land-atmosphere interactions on temperature variability and extremes in Fennoscandia . Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Falk, Stefanie; Eriksen, Aud Berglen; Kapperud, Åshild Fandango; Kauserud, Håvard & Stordal, Frode [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2020). Responses to experimental ozone exposure in some native plant species from Northern Scandinavia.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Falk, Stefanie; Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen; Stordal, Frode; Kauserud, Håvard & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2020). The double punch: ozone and climate stresses on vegetation.
• Falk, Stefanie; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Stordal, Frode; Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2020). Surface Ozone in Northern Scandinavia and Implications on Local Vegetation - A Case Study.
• Bryn, Anders; Dalen, Thea Grobstok; Finne, Eirik Aasmo; Heiberg, Hanne; Nilsen, Irene Brox & Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. [Vis alle 22 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2020). Natur i endring - en vandreutstilling.
• Byre, Hanne Eline; Falk, Stefanie; Stordal, Frode & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2019). An Investigation of Source Regions Contributing to the Deposition of Reactive Nitrogen in Arctic and Boreal Areas. Vis sammendrag

  Long range atmospheric transport is an important source of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to Boreal and Artic ecosystems. The combined effect of climate change and deposition of reactive nitrogen which is an important nutriant for these systems, have the potential to change the carbon storage in high latitude reservoirs. Furthermore a change in vegetation, will lead to changes in the exchange of energy and humidity between the land surface and the atmosphere. We have conducted several model studies to investigate and quantify the importance and contribution of distinguished source regions to Nr deposition in polar and sub-polar regions in the northern hemisphere. Using a global chemistry transport model, we will assess the following questions: To what extent are emissions from agriculture in South-Asia affecting NOx deposition in the Arctic? What would happen if we shut down the automotive sector in Germany, do we see a reduction in the amount of NOx deposited in Norway?

• Stordal, Frode; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Büker, Patrick; Falk, Stefanie; Rydsaa, Johanne Hope & Gillies, David [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2018). Ozone and climate stresses on sub-ARctic tundra vegetation: Modelling of stomatal fluxes in midnight sun.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud Berglen; Falk, Stefanie; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Kauserud, Håvard & Emberson, Lisa D. [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2018). Project The double punch: ozone and climate stresses on vegetation.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud Berglen; Kauserud, Håvard; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Stordal, Frode (2018). The double punch: ozone and climate stresses on vegetation.
• Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud Berglen; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Kauserud, Håvard; Büker, Patrick & Emberson, Lisa D. [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2018). The double punch: ozone and climate stresses to sub-Arctic vegetation.
• Stordal, Frode; Tang, Hui; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Büker, Patrick; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria & Eriksen, Aud Berglen [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2017). Modelling combined effects of ozone and climate stresses on Arctic and boreal species.
• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Fuglestvedt, Jan S. (2017). Climate response to ozone perturbations at different altitudes and latitudes.
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Westermann, Sebastian; Martin, Leo Celestin Paul & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2017). Degrading Palsa Mires in Northern Norway Simulated with a Regional Climate Model with a Subgrid Snow Scheme.
• Tang, Hui; Stordal, Frode; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Bryn, Anders (2017). Improve dynamic vegetation model of community land model in simulating Arctic vegetation and its interaction with climate.
• Bryn, Anders; Stordal, Frode; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Tang, Hui (2017). Vegetation dynamics - distribution, modelling and feedbacks.
• Bryn, Anders; Potthoff, Kerstin; Horvath, Peter; Volden, Inger Kristine; Tang, Hui & Berntsen, Terje Koren [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2017). Greening and browning: 100 years of tree- and forest line dynamics.
• Jeanette, Viken; Vollsnes, Ane Victoria; Eriksen, Aud Else Berglen; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Stordal, Frode (2017). DO3SEiNORD.
• Tang, Hui; Stordal, Frode; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Bryn, Anders (2016). Dynamical vegetation-atmosphere modelling of the boreal zone.
• Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Allen, Myles R.; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Peters, Glen Philip (2015). National and regional contributions to global climate change.
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Dunse, Thorben; Collier, Emily; Schuler, Thomas; Kohler, Jack & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2014). Simulating the Climatic Mass Balance of Svalbard Glaciers from 2003 to 2014 Using a Coupled Atmosphere and Climatic Mass-Balance Model.
• Dalsøren, Stig Bjørløw; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Myhre, Gunnar & Eide, Lars Ingolf [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). Does routing matter? Radiative forcing and temperature responses to Arctic transit shipping versus traditional Suez route.
• Hodnebrog, Øivind; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Myhre, Gunnar & Samset, Bjørn Hallvard [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2014). Climate impact of short-lived climate forcers: A case study of emissions from Norway.
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Boike, Julia; Etzelmuller, Bernd; Gisnås, Kjersti & Westermann, Sebastian (2014). Simulating the surface energy balance on Svalbard with the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
• Etzelmuller, Bernd; Westermann, Sebastian; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Dunse, Thorben; Gisnås, Kjersti & Hagen, Jon Ove Methlie [Vis alle 12 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). CRYOMET – Concept and Results for Bridging Models Between the Atmosphere and the Terrestrial Cryosphere (Glacier and Permafrost).
• Berntsen, Terje Koren; Klimont, Zbigniew & Heyes, Chris (2013). Contribution of diesel vehicle emissions to Arctic black carbon in the OsloCTM2.
• Etzelmuller, Bernd; Westermann, Sebastian; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Gisnås, Kjersti; Hagen, Jon Ove Methlie & Kristjansson, Jon Egill [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Bridging models for the terrestrial cryosphere and the atmosphere - The CryoMET project.
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Boike, Julia; Etzelmuller, Bernd; Kristjansson, Jon Egill & Schuler, Thomas [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Observert og simulert bakke-energibalanse på Svalbard.
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Boike, Julia; Etzelmuller, Bernd; Kristjansson, Jon Egill & Schuler, Thomas [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Observed and simulated SEB at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard.
• Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Boike, Julia; Etzelmuller, Bernd; Kristjansson, Jon Egill & Schuler, Thomas [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Observed and simulated surface energy budget at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard.
• Aamaas, Borgar & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2021). Metodikk for framstilling av klimaeffekt på kort og lang sikt. CICERO Senter for klimaforskning. 2021(01). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  CICERO Senter for klimaforskning har på oppdrag fra Miljødirektoratet utviklet og illustrert metodikk for framstilling av klimaeffekt på kort og lang sikt. Vi har vurdert klimaeffekt på to forskjellige måter, med vektfaktorer og med en veldig enkel klimamodell for å estimere temperaturbaner av utslippsbaner og utslippstiltak. Analysen bygger på tidligere arbeid CICERO har gjort for Miljødirektoratet. Mandatet CICERO fikk var analysearbeid på disse fire temaene: 1) Vurdering av behovet for å oppdatere GTP(10)-faktoren Miljødirektoratet i dag benytter. 2) Beregne norske utslipp med GTP(10), AGTP, GWP* og eventuelt andre vektfaktorer for ulike tidshorisonter. 3) Metodikk for framstilling av klimaeffekt på kort og lang sikt av ulike utslipp/utslippsreduksjoner i samme figur. 4) Metodikk for kostnadsberegninger.

• Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje Koren & Fuglestvedt, Jan S. (2016). Luftfart og klima - En oppdatert oversikt over status for forskning på klimaeffekter av utslipp fra fly. CICERO senter for klimaforskning. 2016(05). Vis sammendrag

  Denne rapporten gir en oppdatert oversikt over hvordan og i hvilken grad de ulike utslippene fra flytrafikk påvirker klima basert på den nyeste forskningen. For å forstå den totale klimaeffekten av luftfart er det viktig å inkludere alle mekanismene som bidrar til klimapåvirkning, samt hvordan disse kan vektes og sammenlignes på tvers av ulike skalaer i tid og rom. Dette er hovedfokus i denne rapporten. Rapporten er en oppdatering av Lund m.fl. (2011) og fokuserer på forskningsresultater siden da. Arbeidet er finansiert av Avinor

• Aalstad, Kristoffer & Berntsen, Terje Koren (2015). Applying the Eddy Covariance Method Under Difficult Conditions. University of Oslo.

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